Study On A New GERT Network Model And Its Application Based On Multiple Transfer Parameters

China has entered the stage which must take structural adjustment to promote economic development. We have to study the processes of dynamic input-output and the value increment to realize scientific input and control using scientific methods and economics theories to maintain the sustained, steady, high-speed operation of China's economy. GERT network model is a method to solve stochastic network model, it transfer complex systems into stochastic network model with simple construction through logics nodes and lines, the model is widely applied on many problems because it can get stochastic network charts of given complex systems without using the method of recursion.This paper studies a new GERT network model based on multiple transfer parameters and its relevant problems, and then applies the new GERT network model on the field of macroeconomics. The main study contents are as follows.(1)Based on the actual situation of the economic system, the paper constructs a new GERT network model based on multiple transfer parameters in the form of linear combination, proposes the function of the relevant parameters, and the confirming methods and algorithms of relative parameters, and studies the analytical solution of the new GERT network model. Then the paper applies the new GERT network model on the field of macroeconomics though an example of value flow processes between sectors of the economy system, get outputs, transfer probability, value increment quantities and values of variance by inputting on different sectors of the economy system, which fully reflects the processes of dynamic input-output and the value increment though value flows, it will provide effective quantitative supports for the country's macro-control.(2)Based on the analytical solution of the new GERT network model of multiple transfer parameters, the paper studies the expand problems of the analytical solution, constructs a new combined C marker GERT network model, conditional GERT network model and process GERT network model of multiple transfer parameters, proposes the function of the relevant parameters, and the confirming methods and algorithms of relative parameters, and studies the analytical solution of the expand models. Then the paper applies the expand models on the field of macroeconomics though an example of value flow processes between sectors of the economy system, get the average realize times of the activities, nodes and the whole network of value increment processes in the economy system. Then, the paper studies the conditional outputs, conditional transfer probability, conditional value increment quantities and conditional values of variance by inputting on different sectors of the economy system when certain parameters are confirmed, which further reflect the processes of dynamic input-output and the value increment though value flows and provide effective quantitative supports for the country's macro-control.(3)Taking the uncertainties in the economic system into account on the model, the paper constructs a new G-GERT network model based on grey value flow process of multiple transfer parameters, proposes the function of the relevant grey parameters, and the confirming methods and algorithms of relative grey parameters, and studies the analytical solution of the new G-GERT network model. Then the paper applies the new G-GERT network model on the field of macroeconomics though an example of value flow processes between sectors of the economy system, which fully reflects the processes of dynamic input-output and the value increment though value flows, then continuously improves the risk prevention ability of national economic system, effectively adjusts the various uncertainties of the social economic whole through country's macro-control to reduce the needless waste.