| Land price is the core of land market and the"barometer"that reflects the land market and the demand and supply of land. Therefore it provides both important informations for the operation of land market and criteria for value judgement. It also serves as an important lever of the market to adjust the allocation of land resources. The commercial land prices in urban area is an important branch of urban land prices. Therefore the study of its spacial distribution regularities in a particular region and its temporal changes can provide strong theoretical support to regional industrial layout, optimal allocation of land resources and the making of land price management policies .At present, because the related study on spacial and temporal distribution of urban land prices started late in China, the research method has not been systematic yet and there is also a lack of qualitative and quantitative theoretical analysis of the spacial and temporal distribution of urban commercial land prices in particular regions. Based on the spacial analysis method of GIS, geostatistical theories as well as the the constructive theory and method of digital elevation model , this thesis intends to build a digital land price model and then to explore the method of studying spacial and temporal distribution of urban land prices and reveal its regularities according to the commercial land price distribution in downtown Korla .This thesis starts with a systematical analysis of some basic concepts such as land price, urban land price and urban land value and then describes the current situation of study on spacial and temporal distribution of land price both at home and abroad. Following this,the paper offers a necessary introduction of the basic theories of land price distribution which includes theories on allocation and land use, on land rent and land price.Then by using the land price sample and the transportation network diagram of studied region it builds a database of land price sample. In order to obtain the best Interpolation Model to fit the commercial price of studied region and then get the digital land price model of 2000,2006,2008 and 2010, the paper adopts exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) of GIS as the basic tool and uses different spatial interpolation methods. Based on what have been done above, the spacial distribution and temporal changes of the commercial land price in downtown Korla is analysed and conclusions will be drawn as follows:(1)by using spacial analysis method of GIS, geostatistics as well as the spacial analysis tool of ArcGIS,the paper conducts an exploratory spacial analysis of the commercial land prices of chosen area in 2010. The results shows that land price data shows inverted"U"distribution in east-west direction and south-north direction. The Semivariogram or covariance cloud indicates that the land price in chosen area has spatial autocorrelation in north-east direction.(2)by adopting the often used spherical model of Kriging interpolation method, Gaussian model and exponential model for the interpolation of land price in the studied area, and then through the cross-validation of interpolation, a interpolation of spherical model with higher accuracy can be obtained. It is the most appropriate interpolation model for the study in this chosen area.(3)as for spacial distribution, the land price of studied area showes a pattern including one level 1 center and two secondary centers. It has an obvious centrality. The overall distribution presents a ring-structure which means that the higher the price is the smaller the size of the area is. At the same time, land price distribution also has regional differences. In general, land price decreases from the center to the edge of the urban area. However, it decreases slower in the north and east directions than in the south and west ones. In the center of the region,land price shows a steeper gradient and its decreasing speed become lower and lower as it is approaching the edge. Land price peaks are closely related to the distribution of commercial center. And there also shows a certain consistency between the variation of commercial land price and the directions of truck lines. (4)in the aspect of temporal changes, the overall land price level has markedly improved and the gradient has increased accordingly. Land price has maintained a good consistency in overall structure. There is still one center and two sub-centers where the growth rate of land price is higher than the marginal area. The surrounding area that is influenced by the center has increased and this give rise to a great improvement of the land price in surrounding area compared to that in 2000. |
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