The Impact Of The Structure Of Global Trade Networks On Technological Progress

Technological progress has played a vital role in promoting economic growth and enhancing national competitiveness.As global economic globalization accelerates,the interconnections within global economic and trade relations have become increasingly complex.A country’s position in the international trade network inevitably influences its path of technological acquisition and advancement.Therefore,there is an urgent need to scientifically identify global trade network patterns and effectively leverage a country’s trade network advantage to foster technological leadership.This issue is crucial for the transformation of foreign trade strategies across nations,holding significant theoretical significance and practical value.This thesis aims to investigate the structural changes of global trade networks and their impact on technological progress,employing cross-country panel data.The study focuses on three major areas: analyzing the structural characteristics of global trade networks and their dynamics,exploring how these characteristics affect technological progress,and elucidating strategies to maximize the role of trade networks in fostering technological progress.The relationship between global trade networks and technological progress is analyzed at both theoretical and empirical levels.Firstly,drawing on extensive research literature both domestically and internationally,this thesis aims to consolidate the measurement methods,relationships,and developmental trajectories of trade networks and technological progress.It also establishes clear definitions for the concepts of trade network characteristics and technological progress.The individual characteristics of trade networks encompass key measurement indicators such as centrality,strength,and heterogeneity.Technological progress,on the other hand,encompasses two primary dimensions: the drivers of technological advancement and the outcomes thereof.In addition,this study synthesizes and summarizes theories from various schools of thought,including classical trade theory,modern international trade theory,new trade theory,social network theory,Schumpeterian innovation theory,endogenous growth theory,new growth theory,creative destruction theory,and dynamic trade welfare.By constructing a model that captures the dynamics of technological progress within an open economy,it proposes that the paths and theoretical mechanisms through which trade networks influence technological progress primarily involve mechanisms such as economies of scale,competition,division of labor specialization,and knowledge spillover.Secondly,a comprehensive analysis of the global trade network structure over the past 60 years is conducted using a two-way trade matrix comprising a total of 2,607,693 data samples from 233 countries(regions)from 1962 to 2021.This analysis is carried out using various software tools,including Matlab,R2021 a,Ucinet6,Gephi0.9,and R Studio6.The study focuses on five aspects: overall characteristics,individual characteristics,association division,core-edge structure,and geographical distribution.The overall characteristics encompass nine dimensions:network size,density,efficiency,reciprocity,central potential,association,rank,average path length,and small-world phenomenon.The individual characteristics are examined through an indepth analysis of degree centrality,betweenness centrality,closeness centrality,Page Rank centrality,eigenvector centrality,node strength and heterogeneity.Kernel density function estimation equations are employed for detailed analysis.Furthermore,the core-edge structure of the trade network is divided into four layers: core,sub-core,weak edge,and edge.By combining this division with data analysis,the study compares the characteristic facts of the key countries(regions)occupying core and edge positions within the global trade network.The findings reveal consistency and correlation between the structural characteristics of the trade network and the development of technological progress.These empirical findings provide a foundation for further research on the impact of the global trade network on technological advancement.Thirdly,the empirical analysis investigates the impact of global trade networks on technological progress using Stata17 MP and R 4.2.2 software.The Super-SBM model and twoway fixed effects model are employed based on cross-country panel data encompassing 167countries(regions)from 1992 to 2021.The study examines the relationships between network centrality,strength,heterogeneity,and technological progress,focusing on the causes and outcomes of technological progress.The empirical results reveal significant findings.Within the global trade network,countries that occupy central positions with higher point intensity and greater trade connectivity experience more pronounced technological progress.However,network heterogeneity exhibits a negative and significant impact on technological advancement.Furthermore,the influence of global trade network characteristics on technological progress varies significantly across countries(regions)with different income levels,including developing,emerging,and developed nations,as well as across different geographical regions.The impact is also analyzed in terms of different aspects of the Malmquist index decomposition.Importantly,the benchmark regression results successfully pass the endogeneity test and a series of robustness tests,enhancing the reliability of the findings.Next,a comprehensive empirical analysis is conducted using a combination of the Dumitrescu & Hurlin causality test,mediation model,Sobel-Goodman Mediation,and Bootstrap test to examine four theoretical mechanisms through which global trade networks influence technological progress.The results reveal that global trade network characteristics,specifically centrality,foster technological progress through mediating variables such as market size,trade competitiveness index,global value chain,and GII knowledge spillover index.The economies of scale mechanism allow global trade networks to achieve higher technological progress benefits by expanding their scale and optimizing resource allocation.Furthermore,the competition mechanism stimulates participants in trade networks to continuously pursue innovation and enhance their competitiveness.The division of labor specialization enables countries to leverage their respective advantages,leading to efficient resource allocation and comprehensive development of the industrial chain.Lastly,the knowledge spillover effect within the global trade network facilitates the dissemination of technology and the expansion of innovation,thereby driving technological progress.Furthermore,the study explores the influence of structural characteristics of trade networks,particularly in relation to institutional quality and trade freedom,on technological progress.Interaction models,threshold models,dynamic GMM models,and 2SLS-based threshold models are employed to investigate these effects.The results indicate that institutional quality and trade freedom significantly impact the relationship between trade networks and technological progress,and there exists a threshold value.Within the global trade network,countries that possess higher centrality and greater point intensity enjoy greater advantages in terms of technological progress.Moreover,higher levels of institutional quality and trade freedom facilitate international trade cooperation and technology transfer,promoting the formation and expansion of the global trade network.As a result,this fosters the development of technological progress.However,neither institutional quality nor trade freedom exhibits a significant moderating effect on the relationship between trade network heterogeneity and technological progress.The thesis makes several key contributions.Firstly,it establishes a theoretical model and influence mechanism that elucidates the dynamic relationship between the global trade network and technological progress.It reveals that a country(region)not only benefits from direct trade in terms of technological progress but also emphasizes the significance of its position within the trade network and the role played by other "bridge" countries(regions)in the network.Secondly,the thesis provides a comprehensive and scientifically expanded set of indicators for global trade networks and technological progress.It encompasses an extensive analysis of trade network characteristics,employs a wide range of data covering diverse economies,and spans a significant period.Moreover,it measures both the causes and outcomes of technological progress,providing a comprehensive perspective.Thirdly,the thesis portrays the impact of trade factors on technological progress from the viewpoint of the overall trade network system.It conducts visual analyses of changes in the global trade network,exploring the effects of a country’s(region’s)structural characteristics within the global trade network on enhancing technological progress.It utilizes 8 major econometric software such as R,Matlab and Ucinet,and 12 research methods such as two-way FE model,interaction,threshold model and dynamic GMM model.Furthermore,it investigates the influence of factors such as institutional quality and trade freedom.These findings enrich the study of feasible pathways for enhancing technological progress through global trade networks.Based on theoretical analysis,empirical tests,and factual analysis of global trade networks and technological progress,this thesis proposes the following policy recommendations: Firstly,it is crucial to strengthen international trade cooperation and foster the healthy development of trade networks.By bolstering international economic and trade exchanges and cooperation,we can further expand the scale of the global trade network,enhance the strength of network connections,and facilitate cross-border technology flow and sharing.Secondly,improving the structure of the trade network is vital to enhancing the efficiency and quality of technological innovation.Through optimizing the trade network structure and fostering cooperation and exchange between core and peripheral countries,we can promote knowledge dissemination and technological innovation,consequently driving technological progress and economic development.Thirdly,it is essential to prioritize system construction and enhance trade freedom and institutional quality.Establishing a fair,transparent,and stable international trade system is crucial.This includes reducing trade barriers,strengthening intellectual property protection,and creating a favorable market environment for technological innovation and trade development.