The Export Effects Of Geopolitical Relationships,Competitiveness Relationships Network,and Central-Local Fiscal Relationships From The Perspective Of Scaling Reconstruction

The trend of economic globalization implies a process of global localization,wherein regions need to enhance their competitiveness to gain an advantageous position in the global value chain.Countries must decentralize power downward to maintain efficient internal management and manage geopolitical relationships to facilitate smooth economic ties.However,global economic downturns and unexpected events like the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly impacted the process of trade liberalization.In this context,this paper is based on the theory of scale reconstruction and constructs a theoretical framework encompassing "supranational scale-national scale-subnational scale" to study the export effects of geopolitical relationships,competitive relationships networks,and central-local fiscal relationships.Through theoretical analysis,the paper defines and characterizes the concept of economic scale and forecasts the developmental structure of economic scale,describing its formation path.It analyzes the impact mechanism of geopolitical relationships on export trade within the scale analysis framework.The paper also proposes the concept and spatial mechanism of competitive relationship networks based on regional spatial structure theory.It analyzes how geopolitical relationships,competitive relationship networks,and central-local fiscal relationships influence export trade and interact with each other.Empirical analysis using the trade gravity model indicates that geopolitical relationships have a negative impact on exports because better geopolitical relationships may mean more subsidies to importing countries or make OFDI more likely to substitute for exports.By utilizing social network analysis,the paper constructs a competitive relationship network and discovers that:(1)China’s export trade maintains strong growth momentum;(2)most Chinese provinces exhibit similar patterns of export trade development,sharing the benefits of export growth;(3)China’s export competitiveness exchanges are relatively limited,with weak connections among them;(4)the core region influencing China’s competitiveness lies in the eastern part,but there is a trend of expansion toward the central region;(5)nodes with intermediary functions in the research network are few and mostly located in the eastern region,showing a trend of diffusion over time;(6)the core density of the research network shows an upward trend,while the initial edge density is low but increasing rapidly;(7)industrial structure differences,trade openness,and disparities in living standards among nodes have a positive impact on network formation,while spatial distance has a negative impact.Moreover,through the gravity model,the paper finds that the higher the relative degree centrality and the greater the fiscal decentralization,the larger the region’s export trade volume.It also demonstrates partial mediation effects of infrastructure,local protectionism,and innovation on the influence of fiscal decentralization on trade.The use of cross-regression analysis reveals that there is a moderating effect between three key variables,confirming the phenomenon of interdependence among different scale factors affecting export trade.Viewing "One Belt,One Road" and "Core/Periphery regions" as smaller scales within a larger scale system,it is found that "One Belt,One Road" can mitigate the negative impact of geopolitical relations on trade.Fiscal decentralization has a more stimulating effect on exports in core regions,potentially moderating the export effect of geopolitical relations in those regions.Direct-controlled municipalities can better utilize fiscal decentralization to boost exports and,at the same time,they won’t substitute foreign direct investment for exports when dealing with import countries with higher diplomatic similarities.These explanations shed light on the mechanisms behind the impact of these cross-scale economic factors on trade.The paper presents five innovations:A systematic analysis of economic scale at the theoretical level,including its theoretical basis,conceptual definition,basic characteristics,developmental structure,and formation path,and the establishment of a theoretical framework for economic scale.A preliminary exploration of the impact mechanism of geopolitical relationships and central-local fiscal relationships,geopolitical relationships and "Core/Periphery Regions," and geopolitical relationships and "Direct-Controlled Municipalities/Other Provinces" on export trade,validated through econometric methods.Additionally,empirical research on cross-scale aspects in geopolitical economy and geopolitics.The construction of a competitive relationship network with cross-scale characteristics for measuring the relationships between different regions’ competitiveness.By combining social network analysis and the gravity model,the paper effectively measures the transmission of competitiveness among subnational scale nodes and analyzes the structural characteristics of the competitive relationship network.The examination of the effects of fiscal decentralization on export trade from a crossscale perspective,considering the effects of fiscal decentralization and geopolitical relationships,fiscal decentralization and "Core/Periphery Regions," and fiscal decentralization and "Direct-Controlled Municipalities/Other Provinces." It also analyzes the mediating effects of transportation infrastructure,local protectionism,and innovation on the impact of fiscal decentralization on trade,providing new research perspectives and content for fiscal decentralization studies.Based on the theoretical and empirical findings,the paper proposes a set of export promotion strategies grounded in the theory of economic scale.