| The promulgation of the new Rural Land Contract Law in 2019 and the Civil Code in2021 marks the asset-based management of agricultural land with use value and exchange value,and enables the capitalization of land rights."Resources into assets,assets into capital" of rural land property rights,opening up a nationwide channel for financing the mortgage of the right to use agricultural land.It reveals the reasonableness of the farmland management right as a mortgage tool for financing and further improves the effectiveness of the farmland property right mortgage loan market.However,the increasing capital demand of agricultural operating subjects has not been satisfied by the evaluation of the mortgage financing value of the management right of agricultural land,as well as the problems of credit rationing faced by financial institutions considering the particularity of collateral and high loan risks,which promote the contradiction between the supply and demand in the mortgage financing of the management right of agricultural land,still restricts the sustainable development of the mortgage loan of the property right of agricultural land.At the same time,both agricultural operating subjects and financial institutions are faced with great risks in participating in mortgage loans.The phenomenon that loan risks affect resource allocation and income of supply and demand parties and lead to the underestimation or overestimation of the value of agricultural land management rights is not only one of the main reasons for the difference between existing evaluation methods and evaluation practices.It is also an important restriction factor that affects the active participation of both the supply and demand parties in the decision-making behavior of the mortgage loan for the management right of agricultural land.The difficulty of value evaluation has always been the difficulty that hinders the further development of mortgage financing of agricultural land management right and the obstacle that must be broken through to perfect mortgage financing of agricultural land management right.The mortgage loan for the management right of agricultural land will gradually slow down the dependence on government support and change to participate in the healthy development of market competition in the whole country.As the most decisive factor of market mechanism,supply and demand relationship also determines the mortgage financing value of agricultural land management rights.Under the background of adhering to the market-oriented operation of rural finance,the market-oriented competition development of mortgage loan projects will depend more on the enthusiasm of both the supply and the demand to participate in the loan behavior.The appraised value of farmland management right not only has a direct impact on the amount of loan,but also has an important significance on whether the supply and demand parties can unify and coordinate decision-making behaviors and not stop the mortgage loan business of farmland management right in the pre-loan stage.Therefore,in order to promote the sound development of the mortgage loan market for the right of agricultural land,this study selected both the supply and the demand as the main participants in the mortgage financing of the right of agricultural land,and based on the evolutionary game strategy equilibrium between the supply and demand of the right of agricultural land mortgage financing,concluded and deduced the constraint conditions of the evaluation value of the right of agricultural land under the condition of the equal interests of both the supply and the demand.This paper summarized the applicability and limitations of the existing methods of asset value evaluation of agricultural land management rights,determined to optimize the income reduction method by using the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,and estimated the supplier’s evaluation value of agricultural land management rights in mortgage financing.This paper uses the binary CVM method and Logistic model to estimate the willingness of agricultural management subjects to pay the expected value of agricultural land management rights.The bid value C-optimal design and embedding effect analysis are selected to provide robustness test for the empirical study.Pingluo County and Tongxin County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region were selected as the case areas to calculate the appraised value of agricultural land management rights of supply and demand sides.At the same time,considering the impact of loan risk on resource allocation and income of both the supply and the demand,the realistic problem that the value of agricultural land management right is underestimated or overestimated caused by the loan risk,the AHP& DEST risk assessment model combining subjective and objective methods is used to quantify the possible risk factors of mortgage loan and integrate them into the value assessment of land and agricultural land management right.Based on the agricultural land management right mortgage loan risk perspective of the evaluation interval of supply and demand value discussion,combined with the mixed strategy equilibrium analysis results of both sides of the supply and demand,to demonstrate the rationality and scientific nature of the value evaluation method and empirical results proposed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the evaluation results of different mortgage modes,different participants and different planting types,the paper provides theoretical and empirical support for improving the evaluation system of the mortgage financing value of the right of agricultural land,resolving the risk of the mortgage loan,giving full play to the mortgage guarantee function and improving the rural financial service ability.The study reached the following conclusions:(1)Based on the evolutionary game model,this study finds that the stable evolutionary behavior strategy of the supply and demand parties of mortgage loan for the right of agricultural land can maximize the interests of the supply and demand parties and promote the sound development of mortgage loan market for the right of agricultural land only when they issue loans and apply for loans.Based on the analysis of the evolution path of the decision-making behavior of both parties,it is found that the evaluation of the management right of agricultural land and the risk of mortgage loan are the key factors affecting the decision-making behavior of both parties.Based on this,the logical path and constraint conditions of the evaluation of the management right of agricultural land under the condition of the equalization of interests of both the supply and demand parties are derived,which provides a theoretical basis for the subsequent evaluation and empirical test of the management right of agricultural land by both the supply and demand parties.(2)Using the optimized agricultural land income reduction method,and considering the influence of the adjustment of loan term structure on the loan behaviors of both the supply and the demand,it is estimated that the evaluation value of the management right of agricultural land by financial institutions in Pingluo County in the next 5 years is 8043.06yuan/mu;Tongxin County is 13,837.66 yuan/mu.Based on the evaluation and payment willingness of agricultural management subjects to the existing land transaction price,it is estimated that the expected evaluation value of agricultural land management rights of Pingluo County is 15,194 yuan/mu.Tongxin County is 17,973.8 yuan/mu.Based on the assessed value of the future income of agricultural land,because the sample area of Tongxin County is mainly planted with wolfberry agricultural land,the economic benefit is higher than that of the food crops in Pingluo County,resulting in the supplier’s assessed value of the management right of agricultural land is much higher than that of ordinary cultivated land.The regression results show that the overall significance of relevant variables in Pingluo County is higher than that in Tongxin County.All variables can pass the test at the significance level of 5%.The resource endowment of farmers has a significant impact on their willingness to pay.The higher the social capital and financial capital of farmers,the more obvious the positive effect on their willingness to pay.In addition,a total of 7 internal range tests were designed(Pingluo County: 4;Tongxin County: 3)and 11 external scope tests(Pingluo County: 6;Tongxin County: 5)Robustness test was conducted on the willingness of agricultural management subjects to pay the expected assessed value of agricultural land management rights.The results show that the comparison of the willingness to pay of different independent subsamples in the same area passes the external quantity range test of embedding effect,which indicates that the questionnaire design,survey implementation and WTP estimation results of the two-bounded binary CVM in this paper are reliable.(3)The AHP & DEST risk evaluation model was constructed to reflect the comprehensive influence degree of loan risk on the mortgage financing of agricultural land management rights of both parties,namely,the mortgage risk coefficient was 21.47%.In the mortgage risk evaluation and the analysis of influencing factors,this paper found that the mortgage risk evaluation grade of farmland management right is medium and high risk.Compared with other risk factors,the mortgagor’s credit risk is the highest,among which the balance ratio factor has a higher impact.Mortgaged property risk and market transaction risk have relatively high influence on the mortgage risk of agricultural land management right,among which the characteristics of agricultural land type and mortgage loan interest rate are the factors causing the high influence.Compared with other risks,the business operation risk and policy and regulatory risk of financial institutions have less impact,and the mortgage risk of agricultural land management right is highly sensitive to the supporting security mechanism and business operation standard.(4)Based on the mixed strategy equilibrium of both sides,this paper obtains the case analysis results and the constraints derived from the theoretical research on the evaluation value of the agricultural land management rights of both sides.There should be four conditions: "completely fit","completely deviated","supply-side fit,demand-side deviation","demand-side fit,supply-side deviation".Based on the practical research results of Pingluo Tongxin two places,the index parameters are defined,and the empirical analysis results of the case are compared with the quantitative relationship obtained by the constraints of value assessment.It is found that in general,the empirical results of cases can meet the constraints of value assessment under the equilibrium of mixed supply and demand strategy,that is,the situation of "perfect fit".This paper shows that the evaluation method and test of the agricultural land management right value of both sides are scientific and reasonable.(5)Through the analysis of the results of different mortgage models,different participants and different planting types,it is concluded that the evaluation result of agricultural land management right value under the market-oriented mortgage loan model of Tongxin County is better than that under the government-oriented mortgage loan model of Pingluo County.The multiple effects of planting cash crops on the evaluation of farmland management rights are the main reason that Tongxin County’s evaluation results are better than Pingluo County’s.The evaluation results of financial institutions as loan suppliers deviated from the constraints of value evaluation compared with the agricultural management subjects,which confirmed that financial institutions had a high sensitivity to mortgage loan risks,which easily caused the "cold" of mortgage loan projects for the management rights of agricultural land.In the evaluation of the value of farmland management right,the particularity of the property right of farmland as collateral and its influence on the loan risk should be fully considered,and the evaluation criteria of the value of farmland management right should be scientifically considered under the premise of gradually reducing the loan risk.Improve the supply and demand of both sides to participate in the mortgage loan initiative,promote the sustainable development of agricultural land management mortgage. |
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