Research On Intelligent Early Warning Of Financing Mismatch Risk Of Real Estate Enterprises Based On Deep Learning

The capital-intensive characteristics of the real estate market make it more dependent on financing activities.Before 2016,the management and control of the real estate market in China has not yet formed a complete system,and there is no sales lag,so that the real estate market has not experienced the crisis of centralized outbreak of financing risk.Therefore,Chinese scholars and relevant practitioners have insufficient awareness of preventing the financing risk of the real estate market,and the research perspective is relatively single.However,with the impact of the downward pressure on the Chinese economy and the epidemic,the continuously accumulated financing scale has increased the debt repayment pressure of real estate companies,and the problem of the mismatch between the financing period and the investment period,the financing structure and capital use structure has become prominent,which has increased the possibility of capital chain rupture and brought the risk of financing mismatch.With the continuous accumulation of financing mismatch risks,a large number of real estate companies have broken out of capital crisis,and some real estate companies have already experienced debt defaults.In order to strengthen the management and control of the risk of financing mismatches in real estate companies,the People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting in Beijing on August 20,2020 to control the financing scale of real estate companies and formulate the “three red lines” policy,marking our country’s strengthening the risk prevention of real estate financing has entered a new stage."A few,the slightest move,the foresight is also the foresight",how to more accurately warn the real estate company’s financing mismatch risk,accurately locate the financing mismatch risk transmission path,and then provide a basis for formulating a resolution strategy has become the focus of current research on effective control of real estate financing risks.The 21 st century is an era of rapid and in-depth development of data management technology.With the in-depth development of the "Internet +" strategy,massive financial data has shown explosive growth,making the information data related to the risk of financing mismatches of real estate companies showing complexity,diversity,heterogeneity and other characteristics.Traditional risk early warning models can no longer deal with the influence between a large number of influencing factors and the non-linear factors of real estate enterprise financing mismatch risk.In view of this,it is urgent to improve the early warning mechanism of financing mismatch risk for real estate enterprises by introducing the latest machine learning algorithms.Based on deep learning,this research introduces the recurrent neural network model into the real estate enterprise financing mismatch risk early warning field,and strives to improve the transparency of early warning results while maintaining the accuracy of the early warning system.Specifically,this research is based on the perspective of real estate companies’ financing maturity mismatch risk,financing structure mismatch risk,real business cycle theory,maturity matching theory,and optimal financing structure theory,and further from the institutional level,policy level,and industry level.At the level and micro-enterprise level,we deeply analyze the driving factors and risk warning signs of the financing mismatch risk of real estate enterprises.Use web crawler technology,text analysis,and grounded analysis technology to intelligently identify the financing mismatch risk of real estate companies,and establish a financing mismatch risk warning index system based on the external commonality and internal personality of real estate companies;introduce deep learning technology and GIS spatial positioning technology Various intelligent technologies and scientific methods are used to conduct intelligent early-warning monitoring and intelligent early-warning positioning of real estate enterprises’ financing mismatch risks.This research builds an intelligent early warning system for financing mismatch risks of real estate companies.While verifying the accuracy of this early warning model for real estate companies’ financing mismatch risk warnings,it also realizes the readability of the warning results and empirically tests the financing mismatches of real estate companies.The impact of risk on regional financial risk spillover effects enhances the practicability of the results of this research.Specifically,this research attempts to make breakthroughs in the following areas:(1)Exploring the intelligent identification of risk factors of financing mismatch in real estate companies.Using web crawler technology to intelligently obtain literature on the risk of financing mismatches in real estate companies.Using text analysis technology to intelligently identify keywords for financing mismatch risk in real estate companies,take the external common characteristics and internal personality characteristics of real estate company financing mismatch risk,and use grounded analysis methods to identify the risk factors of financing mismatch in real estate companies from the perspectives of financing maturity mismatch risk and financing structure mismatch risk innovatively.(2)Constructing an intelligent early-warning model of financing mismatch risk for real estate companies based on deep learning.For the first time,deep learning technology was introduced into the real estate enterprise financing mismatch risk early warning,and the real estate industry fluctuation monitoring model,the real estate enterprise financing maturity mismatch risk intelligent early warning model,and the real estate enterprise financing structure mismatch risk intelligent early warning model were constructed respectively.The risk mapping relationship between the financing mismatch risk characteristic data set and the financing mismatch risk label data set of real estate enterprises is constructed.The trained and tested intelligent early warning model of financing mismatch risk for real estate enterprises realizes the early warning and monitoring of financing mismatch risk of real estate enterprises.(3)Exploring the intelligent early warning positioning of financing mismatch risk for real estate companies.Based on the intelligent early warning of financing mismatch risk of real estate companies,the Captum interpretable library is used to obtain the relative importance score of financing mismatch early warning indicators,and this can be used to formulate advance prevention and control strategies to resolve the financing mismatch risk of real estate companies.By synthesizing the financing mismatch risk early warning index,using the real estate enterprise financing mismatch risk early warning comprehensive index to construct a spatial Dubin measurement model,using GIS spatial positioning technology to locate the spatial spillover effect of real estate financing mismatch risk on regional financial risks,and improve the practicality of research conclusions.In short,this dissertation introduces the intelligent early warning model to the real estate enterprise financing mismatch risk early warning field.Through the intelligent identification of financing mismatch risk and intelligent early warning monitoring,on the basis of ensuring the accuracy of early warning,the transparency of early warning results is realized and the application prospect of intelligent early warning system in the field of risk early warning is expanded.