Research On Structural Features And Formation Mechanism Of The B&R Production Network

The Belt and Road(B&R)production network caters to the needs of developing countries along the route to achieve breakthrough development through external forces,and at the same time can give full play to the comparative advantages of different countries,helping to build new value chain links,which is of great practical significance for creating new growth poles in the B&R region.It is of great practical significance to analyse the structural characteristics and formation mechanism of the B&R production network.Relying on the classical theories of international division of labor,geo-economy,spatial structure and social network and the scientific method of social network analysis,this paper constructs a nested and continuous B&R production network research framework from "macro-meso" and "phenomenon-mechanismexamination" paths.The paper explores the structural characteristics and formation mechanism of the B&R production network.The main work and innovations of the paper can be summarised in the following four aspects.Firstly,this paper systematically analyzes the characteristic facts of the formation of the B&R production network.Basis on the analysis of the globalization and regionalization characteristics of the B&R region,the paper identifies the differentiated characteristics of the B&R production network from the perspective of international division of labor,and gives concrete examples of the B&R production network at the level of sub-sectors through the portrayal of major transnational long industrial chains.It is found that:(ⅰ)The production of goods along the B&R has become an important force in influencing world markets.At the same time,trade and investment relations between the countries along the B&R show a clear trend towards regionalisation.(ⅱ)Unlike mature international production networks,the international division of labour along the B&R is dominated by an inter-industrial division of labour,with a more pronounced "production fragmentation" within products.(ⅲ)The value-added creation of B&R is rapidly increasing,and the value chain system has a tendency to develop inwards,with countries along the route rapidly integrating into the value chain division of labour system of B&R.The B&R region has formed "China-electrical and optical instuments","China-base metals and metal products" and "Russia-mining and quarrying" as the hub of the long transnational industrial chain.Secondly,this paper uses social network analysis to portray the dynamical structural characteristics of the B&R production network.The existing research on B&R production networks is limited to the overall level.Based on domestic value-added data,this paper constructs unweighted and weighted simulation networks of the B&R production networks,and portrays the structural characteristics of B&R production networks at two levels:"overall-country" and"industry-country",as well as three levels:overall,group and individual,expanding the current research level.The study finds that:At the overall level,the "distance" between the countries along the B&R production network is getting smaller and smaller,the reciprocity is becoming more and more obvious,the division of labour and cooperation is getting closer and closer,and there is a tendency to be "grouped together".At the group level,the B&R production network has formed an East-South Asian association led by China and a Europe-Central Asia-West Asia association led by Russia,with a relatively stable membership.In most of the sectors,the composition of the associations is also very geographically specific.At the individual level:(ⅰ)China and Russia are becoming more central.(ⅱ)China,Russia,Indonesia,India and Malaysia have a high central position in the network,and China,Russia,India,Malaysia and Turkey are the countries with the highest degree of proximity to other countries.(ⅲ)China,Russia,India,Poland and Turkey are the countries with the "intermediaries".(ⅳ)China,Russia,Singapore,Indonesia and India are the most influential countries.Thirdly,this paper analyzes and examines the endogenous mechanism of the formation of the B&R production network.The existing research lacks the analysis of the endogenous mechanism of international production network.While this paper proposes that the formation of B&R production network has reciprocity,expansion,transmission closure and time-dependent effects from the self-organization process of network formation.The empirical test of TERGM model finds that:(ⅰ)Except for mining and quarrying,reciprocity has a positive impact on the formation of the B&R production network.(ⅱ)The formation of the B&R production network has an expansionary nature,and the construction of cooperative relations among the countries along the B&R is not monopolised by a few countries.(ⅲ)The B&R production network tends to close,and countries tend to "work together".(ⅳ)The existing cooperation relationships built by countries in the network will not change much with time,and the B&R production network shows a trend of stable development.Fourthly,this paper examines the exogenous mechanism of the formation of the B&R production network from two aspects:mechanism analysis and empirical test.Based on the general factors,this paper analyze the mechanisms of new cooperation mechanisms,China’s increasing influence,and the strategic competition between China and the United States on the formation of the B&R production network.In addition,a frontier TERGM model has been used to empirically test and simulate the formation mechanism of the B&R production network.The study found that:In addition to the non-significant matthew effect,congruence,complementarity,institutional proximity,geographic proximity,bilateral political relations,improved transport infrastructure connectivity,new cooperation mechanisms,increased Chinese influence,and strategic competition between China and the United States all have a significant impact on the formation of the B&R production network.The extended analysis found that after the B&R Initiative was launched:(ⅰ)The reciprocity among countries along the production network has increased significantly.(ⅱ)Countries along the route have changed from preferring to build production cooperation relationships with countries with large differences in institutional environments to preferring to build production cooperation relationships with countries with small differences in institutional environments.(ⅲ)The positive effect of Chinese influence on the formation of the B&R production network has increased significantly.(ⅳ)The influence of the US-China strategic competition on the formation of the B&R production network has also become more obvious.