Research On The Dynamic Impact Mechanism Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy On Economic And Financial Uncertainty

The Central Economic Work Conference in 2022 pointed out that the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not yet solid,the triple pressures of demand contraction,supply shock,and expected weakening are still large,and the external environment is volatile,which has deepened the impact on China’s economy.The instability and uncertainty of the current global economy are still prominent.The impact of structural reform in emerging economies,the variable of policy spillover effect in developed economies,the policy trend of "anti-globalization" and trade protectionism,and the counter spread of the international COVID-19 epidemic situation have caused the world economy to undergo a sharp differentiation in the periodic shocks.Uncertainty has become a global problem.The Fifth Plenary Session proposed to improve the macroeconomic governance system with national development planning as the strategic guidance,fiscal and monetary policies as the main means,employment,industry,investment,consumption,environmental protection,regional and other policies in close coordination,optimization of objectives,rational division of labor,and efficient coordination.This has pointed out the direction for theoretical and practical research.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to reexamine the regulatory effect of fiscal policy and monetary policy in dealing with economic and financial uncertainties and the coordination between them.the paper based on systematic measurement of domestic economic and financial uncertainties,through the help of a more realistic nonlinear econometric model,analyzes quantitatively the dynamic regulatory effect of fiscal and monetary policies on the impact of uncertainty,to optimize the policy coordination mechanism Improve policy space to provide reasonable experience reference and policy inspiration.Firstly,the paper makes a quantitative measurement of economic and financial uncertainty.Based on the unexpected random volatility model and combined with the high-dimensional factor model,further analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between the uncertainty index and macroeconomic policies under the nonlinear cointegration test model,to investigate the correlation mechanism between macroeconomic policies and economic and policy uncertainties in the economic system.The results show that: economic and financial uncertainties and fiscal There is a significant nonlinear cointegration relationship between monetary policies,that is,there is structural variation in the long-term equilibrium relationship between uncertainty and macro policies;On this basis,it is further found that macroeconomic policies at different stages have different regulatory effects on the uncertainty in the economic system.Secondly,the paper identifies the causal relationship between economic and financial uncertainties and macro policies.This chapter analyzes the dynamic causality between uncertainty index and macro policy based on linear and nonlinear causality test models(including the nonparametric Granger causality test model,nonlinear Granger causality test model,and convergence cross-influence causality test model),that is,empirically analyzes whether there is significant causality between economic and financial uncertainty index and monetary and fiscal policies,The research finds the nonlinear Granger causality test model finds that there is a twoway causal relationship between the economic and financial uncertainties and monetary and fiscal policies,CCM causality test results show that there is a two-way nonlinear causality between uncertainty index and macro policies.Thirdly,the paper analyzes the regulatory effect of macro policies from the perspective of economic uncertainty.In combination with different economic uncertainty indexes measured previously,this chapter uses the nonlinear cointegration(ESTAR-ECM)model and the smooth transfer vector autoregression(ST-VAR)model to investigate the long-term nonlinear relationship and short-term dynamic correlation mechanism between macroeconomic policies and economic uncertainty.As the main means of government macro-control,fiscal policy and monetary policy should not only actively promote economic growth but also provide policy support to ensure the smooth operation of the macroeconomy.The results show that there is a significant nonlinear equilibrium relationship between macro policy and economic uncertainty from the perspective of long-term equilibrium,that is,there is a nonlinear correlation mechanism between fiscal policy and monetary policy and economic uncertainty.In the short-term dynamic perspective,fiscal policy and monetary policy have asymmetric regulatory effects on the impact of economic uncertainty,that is,when the economic uncertainty is in different states,the regulatory effects of macroeconomic policies are different,and the regulatory effectiveness is stronger when the economic uncertainty is in a high regional system.Then,the paper examines the regulatory effects of macroeconomic policies from the perspective of financial uncertainty.The research content of the previous chapter is to investigate the regulatory effect of macro policies from the perspective of economic uncertainty.The research focus of this chapter is to explore the regulatory effect of macro policies from the perspective of financial uncertainty,clarify the feedback mechanism of fiscal policy and monetary policy on the impact of financial uncertainty,and the comprehensive effect of macro policy coordination and linkage on financial uncertainty,The results show that there is a significant nonlinear equilibrium relationship between macro policy and financial uncertainty from the perspective of long-term equilibrium.The long-term equilibrium coefficients of fiscal policy and financial uncertainty are0.5668 and 0.4746 respectively,and the long-term equilibrium coefficients of monetary policy and financial uncertainty are 0.5218 and 0.3624 respectively.In addition,there is a short-term asymmetric adjustment mode between macro policy and financial uncertainty,and macro policy shocks will react to financial uncertainty.Finally,the paper studies the regulation mechanism of macro policy on external shocks in the open environment.The Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the Fourteenth Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Vision for 2035 adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategic guidelines for building a new development pattern.To build a new development pattern,it is bound to introduce international market factors.At the same time,taking the international market as the carrier will also lead to external shocks that will have a certain impact on the stable development of the domestic economy.The results show that: external economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic have significant time-varying interaction effects,and external shocks play a major role in the interaction process between them,based on the total spillover index,it can be found that the uncertainty of external economic policy always plays a leading role in the process of dynamic interaction with domestic macro policies.