| Since the global financial crisis in 2008,China’s macro leverage ratio(total debt/GDP)has continued to rise rapidly,and there has been a large deviation between debt growth and economic growth.Under the influence of national regulation and control policies,the rapid rise of macro leverage ratio has been initially curbed,but the macro leverage ratio has increased significantly since 2020.With the continuous accumulation of debt risk,debt problem has become an important factor restricting economic growth and pushing up financial risk.How to stabilize and adjust the macro leverage ratio to achieve an effective balance between steady growth and risk prevention has become an urgent theoretical and practical problem to be solved.Therefore,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between macro leverage ratio,debt risk and economic growth,studies the formation mechanism and stability conditions of macro leverage equilibrium level,and studies how to adjust macro leverage ratio from both micro and macro perspectives.Firstly,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis and international comparison of China’s debt situation.Since a single index can not comprehensively and accurately measure the debt situation,this paper puts the macro leverage ratio,asset liability ratio and debt burden ratio reflecting different debt characteristics into the same system,and makes a comprehensive analysis and judgment on China’s debt level and debt risk.Secondly,the stability conditions of macro leverage ratio are analyzed.Macro leverage ratio is born in the dynamic relationship between debt and economic growth.There is a strong interaction between its numerator and denominator.The growth rate and change trend of the two sometimes deviate greatly,resulting in the violent fluctuation of macro leverage ratio.Starting from the dynamic relationship between the numerator and denominator of macro leverage ratio,this paper studies the economic growth effect of debt and the threshold effect of asset liability ratio and debt burden ratio on the relationship between debt and economic growth,and analyzes the dynamic relationship between debt,economic growth and macro leverage ratio.At the same time,it analyzes and establishes the long-term relationship between asset liability ratio,asset price and macro leverage ratio,as well as the long-term relationship between debt burden ratio,interest rate and macro leverage ratio,studies the formation mechanism of macro leverage equilibrium level under the constraints of the two relationships.The situation that there is a large deviation between debt growth and economic development is analyzed,for example,credit prosperity without growth and economic growth without credit.Finally,the adjustment measures of macro leverage ratio are studied from the micro and macro perspectives.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,based on the three debt indicators,China’s macro leverage ratio,debt burden and asset liability ratio are at a high absolute level and are all on the rise.The debt risk needs to be paid close attention to.The relationship between debt and economic growth is nonlinear and time-varying.The pulling effect of debt on economic growth will change with different development stages.With the increasing debt burden,the role of new debt in promoting economic growth is weakening,the duration of stimulus effect is shortening,and the negative effect of debt accumulation is not conducive to economic growth.Secondly,asset liability ratio and debt burden,as key variables connecting finance and real economy,macro and micro,have an important impact on macroeconomic fluctuations.There is a long-term relationship between asset liability ratio,asset price and macro leverage ratio,and there is a long-term relationship between debt burden,interest rate and macro leverage ratio.The change of macro leverage ratio is caused by the change of asset liability ratio and debt burden.The two long-term relationships jointly determine the equilibrium level of macro leverage ratio.Among them,the role of debt burden is relatively greater,which needs to be paid enough attention.When the debt burden deviates from its equilibrium value for a long time,it is prone to "no growth with credit boom".Thirdly,from a micro perspective,financial expansion improves the asset liability ratio of enterprises,has no significant impact on the debt burden level of sample enterprises,and the increase of money supply reduces the asset liability ratio and debt burden level of enterprises.At the same time,macro policy has a structural effect on the adjustment of enterprise leverage.From a macro point of view,the continuous increase of debt funds for borrowing new to repay old and non entity investment has promoted the rising of asset prices.Asset prices have promoted the expansion of debt.The growth of credit scale has been accelerated by the cyclical growth of asset bubbles.At the same time,the economic growth rate has been declining,leading to the rapid upgrading of the macro leverage ratio and the continuous expansion of its gap.Among them,borrowing the new to repay the old can effectively avoid the occurrence of large-scale debt default,prevent the risk of asset selling,block the chain reaction of "debt deflation",and maintain the asset price under the environment of "high leverage level and low economic growth",which is its advantage.Fourthly,on the whole,promoting tax cuts and fee reductions,increasing indemnificatory expenditure and reducing interest rates are conducive to the realization of the goal of steady growth and stable leverage.Macro Prudential policy helps to control the growth of credit scale and maintain the stability of asset prices,which is of positive significance to the regulation of macro leverage ratio.While implementing relatively loose monetary policy,we can strengthen macro prudential supervision,control the flow and growth of credit funds,curb the excessive debt behavior of market subjects,and optimize the allocation of debt funds,so as to promote the realization of the objectives of "stable growth" and "stable leverage".The innovations of this paper are as follows:firstly,establish the analysis framework of the formation mechanism of the equilibrium level of macro leverage ratio,deeply analyze the dynamic relationship between debt and economic growth and its impact on macro leverage ratio,and clarify the conditions and reasons for the large deviation between debt scale and economic growth,resulting in the sharp fluctuation of macro leverage ratio.Special attention should be paid to the impact of debt burden.Excessive debt burden will lead to the reduction of private expenditure,which is not conducive to economic growth,but also affect debt sustainability and enhance debt risk.Secondly,from the macro and micro perspectives,this paper studies the adjustment measures taking into account steady growth and risk prevention.In the micro aspect,the heterogeneity of enterprises is fully considered,and the structural effect of leverage regulation policy is studied.In the macro aspect,it focuses on the impact of interest rate on debt burden and the impact of borrowing new to repay old on the macro leverage gap.The debt burden ratio is highly sensitive to the change of interest rate and has time variability.Borrowing new to repay old helps block the"debt deflation" chain,but it will spawn asset bubbles,leading to the expansion of the macro leverage gap.The adjustment policy is studied. |
