The Influence Mechanism Of Technological Innovation On Macro Leverage Ratio In China

In 2018,China made new progress in supply-side structural reform.The macro leverage ratio showed a downward trend for the first time after seven consecutive years of growth,but the overall leverage ratio remained at a high level.The ever-rising high leverage not only threatens the stability of the financial system,but also restricts the efficiency of economic operation.Therefore,the proposes to optimize China's macro leverage ratio and stabilize the economic growth rate by using technological innovation.This paper reviews the domestic and foreign research status on the impact of technological innovation on the macro leverage ratio.Through economic growth,the influence mechanism of technological innovation on the macro leverage ratio is established,and then the mathematical model of the influence of technological innovation on the macro leverage ratio is constructed.According to the research status of scholars at home and abroad,and in combination with the importance of various technological innovation indicators on economic growth,and considering the availability of data,this paper selects the evaluation index of technological innovation.This paper selects China's macroeconomic data from 2001 to 2018,and uses the systematic GMM method to verify the effect of technological innovation on China's macro leverage ratio by combining the cross-multiplication term of technological innovation and the leverage ratio of the lag period.The results show that technological innovation can significantly reduce China's macro leverage ratio,and different technological innovation indicators have different effects on reducing leverage ratio.The best deleveraging effect is to increase the proportion of R&D fund input,followed by the full time equivalent deleveraging effect of increasing R&D personnel,and the least obvious deleveraging effect is to increase the number of patent application acceptance in the short term.Finally,in order to verify the correctness of the conclusion,this paper forecasts China's ability to optimize macro leverage ratio of technological innovation in 2020,2035 and 2050 by combining the new policies of supply-side structural reform in 2019 and the implementation of current technological innovation policies.The results show that the increase of R&D personnel input,the proportion of R&D expenditure input and the number of patent application acceptance all contribute to the macroeconomic deleveraging.Increase R&D personnel of full-time equivalent investment in 2035 to achieve optimal leverage effect.Increase the proportion of R&D expenditure to achieve the optimal deleveraging effect in 2020.And to increase the number of patent application acceptance to leverage effect in 2050.Finally,according to the forecast results,it puts forward new policy suggestions for China's macroeconomic deleveraging.