| In this paper,China’s overseas economic interests and overseas national economic security are studied in many aspects.On the one hand,it starts with the related concepts of overseas economic interests and national economic security,expounding the important role of overseas economic interests and overseas national economic security in foreign policy.And on the other,based on the developed methodology of multi-objective optimization by Ratio Analysis(Multi-MOORA),we conduct a quantitative analysis of overseas economic interest and the overseas national economic security and propose the definition of China’s overseas economic interest.Furthermore,on the basis of quantitative analysis,and inspired by the trade gravity and investment gravity models,we construct empirical equations to explore the correlation between China’s overseas economic interests and host country risks,and conduct research and discussion on the influence mechanism and heterogeneity of country risks.Finally,this paper points out that the establishment of China’s overseas logistics base is an effective way to safeguard its overseas economic interests and ensure overseas national economic security.It also uses social network analysis to conduct an in-depth analysis of the structural characteristics of the established trade network to find the important actors of the trade network.It can provide a reference for the follow-up establishment of China’s overseas logistics base.First of all,we define the related concepts of overseas economic interests and national economic security.Then starting from the importance of overseas economic interests and overseas national economic security,this paper discussed the two-way relationship between them and the formulation of a country’s economic and foreign policy.The increase of overseas economic interests drives the formulation of economic foreign policies aimed at expanding overseas economic interests and ensuring economic security.The risks faced by China’s overseas economic interests are the country risks of the host country,which directly threaten the economic security of overseas countries.Therefore,the quantitative analysis of the economic security of overseas countries must be based on the quantitative analysis of national risks.It is necessary to analyze the related research of country risk.Country risk generally including financial risk,economic risk,political risk,and sovereign risk.The institutions and scholars of domestic and foreign have conducted a series of quantitative studies on country risk.This paper uses the risk data of the International Country Risk Guidelines(ICRG)to measure the country risks of the host countries.China’s overseas economic interest refers to the benefits embodied by China’s international trade,foreign direct investment,imports of key strategic materials,investment in overseas projects,and overseas populations.Therefore,this article uses the multi-objective optimization theory which is the developed multi-objective optimization method based on ratio analysis(Multi-MOORA)and calculates China’s economic benefits in 137 host countries based on China’s international trade data from 2013 to 2017.The country ranking of China’s overseas economic interests and the economic interests adjusted by the host country’s national risk is obtained.Through the results of the country ranking,we can see the distribution of China’s overseas economic interests.The quantitative analysis results in this paper show that from 2013 to 2017,the top 20 host countries of China’s overseas economic interests are almost developing countries,most of which are countries along the Belt and Road.Secondly,based on quantitative analysis of China’s overseas economic interests and economic security of overseas countries,drawn on the gravity model of trade and investment,this paper taking China’s overseas economic interests as the explanatory variable,taking the host country’s national risk as the key explanatory variable,taking the host country’s GDP,the geographical distance between China and the host countries,the host country’s population,the host country’s trade openness,the host country’s resource endowment,the host country’s trade ties with China,the host country’s technological level,and the host country’s inward foreign direct investment as control variables,and based on the panel data from 2013 to 2017,it explores the relationship between China’s overseas economic interests and the host country’s national risk.At the same time,the sample countries are divided into the Belt and Road countries and non-Belt and Road countries for group regression,mainly to determine whether the nature of risk appetite for China’s overseas economic interests in the countries along the route is consistent with that of non-Belt and Road countries.Furthermore,we select some secondary indicators of China’s overseas economic benefits(China’s outward foreign direct investment,China’s imports of goods,and China’s exports of goods)to conduct an empirical analysis to discuss the path of the host country’s country risk on China’s overseas economic interests.The study found that China’s overseas economic interests have significant differences in the risk appetite of countries along the Belt and Road and those not along the Belt and Road,and explained in detail the reasons for this difference.Specifically,China’s overseas economic interests are risk-averse as a whole,and this avoidance is especially reflected in countries along the non-Belt and Road.Country risk has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI),and this inhibitory effect is mainly manifested in OFDI to non-Belt and Road countries.China’s exports of goods are not significantly related to country risk as a whole,but country risks have promoted China’s exports to countries along the Belt and Road to a certain extent.China tends to import goods from host countries with low country risk.The country risk of the host country mainly suppresses the development of China’s overseas economic interests by restraining China’s foreign direct investment and China’s import trade.Thirdly,the quantitative calculation of China’s overseas economic interests and the empirical analysis of the risks of the host country show that China’s overseas economic interests are mainly distributed in developing countries in recent years,especially in the countries along the "Belt and Road".Moreover,China’s economic interests in countries along the B&R are risk-averse.Therefore,based on the 2007-2018 multilateral trade data between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",this article uses social network analysis to explore the structure and dynamic changes of the trade network between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road".The study found that China has very close trade ties with countries along the "Belt and Road",and the trade network has strong connectivity and robustness.The trade network presents the structural characteristics of core-semiperiphery-periphery.Countries with a higher level of economic development are located in the center of the network,which plays a key role in connectivity and bridges.Countries with low levels of economic development are on the fringe of the network and are vulnerable to the control and influence of other countries.China’s absolute core position in the trade network has risen,gradually forming a world trade pattern centered on China.Countries such as Singapore,Malaysia,and Vietnam have important positions in the trade network.The degree centrality and core degree of the economies in the trade network are consistent.That is,the greater the degree of centrality,the higher the core degree in the network.Fourthly,a method to safeguard China’s overseas economic interests and ensure overseas economic security is to establish China’s overseas logistics base and analyze the establishment of overseas logistics bases based on social network analysis.According to the results of the quantitative analysis of China’s overseas economic interests,the top 24 countries with the highest overseas economic interests in China from 2013 to 2015 are selected,25 countries(include China)are taken as "points",and the trade links between these countries are taken as "line" to build a 25-country trade network.After the construction of the trade network,UCINET6 software is used to calculate a series of network analysis indicators to fully analyze the trade links between countries.These indicators mainly include network density,network centrality,cluster analysis,core-semi periphery-periphery structure analysis,and Netdraw program.Specifically,network density characterizes the structural characteristics of the overall trade network.Connectedness reflects the robustness and vulnerability of the network itself.Network centrality,including point centrality,intermediate centrality,proximity centrality,and feature vector centrality,reflecting the importance and influence of each country in the overall trade network.Cluster analysis,namely quantitative study of small groups,mainly to study whether there are subgroup countries with similar structures and similar roles in the trade network;core-semi periphery-periphery structure analysis aims to explore the status of member states in the network from the perspective of the overall trade network,and the Netdraw program visualizes the trade links of 25 countries.The analysis results show that China lacks a sound global trade protection network to protect its huge overseas economic interests;China’s overseas logistics bases are essentially different from overseas military bases in the United States,Britain,France,and other countries,and their main purpose is to protect China’s overseas economic interests,ensure the economic security of overseas countries,and assist UN peacekeeping operations when necessary.China is at the core of the trade network,and Singapore,Malaysia,Vietnam,India,Russia,Thailand,Indonesia,and the UAE are important actors in the network.In other words,these countries have relatively close ties with other countries and have greater influence in the network.Therefore,from the perspective of protecting China’s overseas economic interests and ensuring overseas national economic security,Singapore,Malaysia,Vietnam,India,Russia,Thailand,Indonesia,and UAE can be selected as the location countries of China’s overseas logistics bases.Finally,based on the main research conclusions of this article,relevant policy recommendations are put forward on the expansion of China’s overseas economic interests and the maintenance of overseas economic security.China’s economic and foreign policy should pay more attention to overseas economic interests.China’s Belt and Road initiative is fruitful and should continue to be implemented.Chinese companies should raise their awareness of risk prevention and strengthen their risk management capabilities before going abroad to conduct overseas business,paying particular attention to avoiding national risks in countries not along the Belt and Road.It is necessary to look at risks rationally and fully tap the huge economic potential of the host country,especially the countries along the Belt and Road,under the appearance of country risk.Further,the government has to improve the national risk assessment system and provide national risk analysis and early warning services for go-out companies.China’s overseas logistics base is an important weapon to ensure the economic security of overseas countries.In the process of accelerating its construction,it is necessary to strengthen public opinion propaganda to shape a good international image of our country. |
