Research On The Impact Of Economic Sanctions On Russian Financial Stability

With the development of science and technology,the trend of economic globalization continues to deepen,and the economic exchanges between countries at all levels and industries are becoming more and more inseparable.The economy and finance of a country will be more susceptible to external shocks.Finance is related to a country’s economy.In all aspects,once an external shock is encountered,it will have a serious destabilizing effect on a country,and even cause national turbulence.As a country that plays an important role in the international arena,Russia’s relations with the United States and other Western developed countries have been in a state of instability,sometimes eased and sometimes tense.Especially since the economic sanctions in 2014,many countries and regions around the world The international relations suddenly became tense.As a sanctioned country,Russia’s economic and financial stability has been greatly affected.How did the economic sanctions affect Russia’s financial stability? How much of the adverse effects of economic sanctions have been restored by Russia’s measures.Especially in the environment where the world has not undergone major changes in a century and the game of China’s great powers is transforming and upgrading,the yesterday of the US-Russia battle may be the tomorrow of the Sino-US game(especially since 2020,Western countries have begun to attack China,suppress China’s high-tech industries such as Huawei,ZTE,etc.Chips International and other 77 entities are included in the “Entity List” for sanctions).Studying the impact of economic sanctions on Russia’s stability can help China’s future financial stability cope with waves The stupid international situation provides theoretical support and decision-making reference,so the highlighting research in this article is very necessary.The research content of this article is mainly developed from the following aspects.First of all,the three-dimensional basis of this article and the significance of the topic selection,economic sanctions and financial stability related literature review,research content,ideas and methods,as well as existing innovations and deficiencies are explained,and pave the way for the later chapters of the article.Secondly,the basic overview and theoretical basis of economic sanctions and financial stability are sorted out.Determine the narrow concept,operating mechanism and theoretical basis of economic sanctions studied in this article;through detailed elaboration on financial stability from macro and micro theory,internal and external influencing factors,evaluation system and measurement,clarify the thinking and methods of financial stability research;Analyze the transmission mechanism of economic sanctions affecting financial stability from the three aspects of trade sanctions,financial sanctions,and the uncertain signals released by trade sanctions and financial sanctions,and summarize the theoretical model of the impact of economic sanctions on financial stability,and determine the event analysis method to study the economy The impact of sanctions on financial stability lays the foundation for the analysis of the impact of economic sanctions on Russia’s financial stability in the following chapters.Third,analyze and study the economic sanctions,counter-sanctions and Russia’s economic and financial environment encountered by Russia.Through the analysis of the economic sanctions and counter-sanctions encountered by Russia,it is found that it is more of a geopolitical power game,which is doomed to the long-term and difficult-to-adjust nature of the contradiction between Russia and Western countries;the Russian economic and financial environment before and after the adoption of economic sanctions The analysis of the changes concluded that the economic sanctions in 2014 had a serious adverse effect on Russia’s economy and finance,and some substantial changes changed its original development trend.Finally,the study is conducted on the partial and overall financial impact of economic sanctions on Russia’s currency stability,financial institution stability and financial market stability.Study the impact of economic sanctions on the stability of the Russian currency from the two aspects of internal currency stability and external currency stability,and conduct empirical research from the two aspects of domestic currency stability,consumption and production fields,and conduct empirical research on the stability of Russian financial institutions and the overall financial In terms of system stability,the principal component analysis method is used to measure the overall stability of Russian financial institutions and the overall stability of the Russian financial system using the Russian Bank Stability Index and the Russian Financial Stability Index.In terms of data processing,this article uses X-12,HP filtering and Z-score standardization methods to process data.In terms of empirical analysis,this article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the double difference method(DID),the propensity score matching method(PSM),the synthetic control method(SCM)and the event research method,and selects the multi-factor model and Norm significance in the event research method.The test method conducts research on the impact of economic sanctions on Russia’s financial stability,and conducts robustness tests from the constant mean model and the two parameter tests of BMP and ADJPatell and the two non-parametric test methods of Wilcoxon and GRANK.Similar results are obtained,indicating the empirical evidence.Robustness of results.Through empirical analysis,the following empirical results are obtained: First,the impact of economic sanctions on various financial components of Russia shows significant adverse effects,but there are big differences.Regarding Russia’s currency stability,economic sanctions have had a significant adverse effect,but the impact on internal and external currencies is different.In terms of the impact on the stability of the domestic currency,consumption and production have gone through a process from small to large,then from large to small,and then to large.They reached their peaks at the end of 2015 and early 2016.On the whole,the production field The adverse impact of the industry is greater than that of the consumer sector.In terms of external currency stability,the adverse effects have also gone through a process from small to large,then small to large,then small to large,and reached a peak in early 2016,and the adverse impact is greater than the adverse impact on the stability of the domestic currency.In terms of the stability of Russian financial institutions,the adverse effects of economic sanctions have gone through a process from small to large,from large to small,and then to large,and reached a peak in early 2016.In the Russian financial market,the adverse effects of economic sanctions have gone from small to large to small to large to small,but they are still at a very high level of significance.Second,economic sanctions have had a serious adverse effect on Russia’s overall financial stability.It has experienced a process of volatility that first increased,then decreased,then increased and then decreased,and reached its peak in early 2016.This result is a good reflection of the comprehensive adverse effects on the various financial components of Russia.Third,while economic sanctions have hit Russia’s economy,they have also brought opportunities for Russia’s financial sector to get rid of severe external dependence and improve the domestic financial system.However,Russia’s severe dependence on foreign capital and the unity of its economic structure have made changes in the financial sector long-term,and it is destined to slowly increase Russia’s financial stability.This also requires Russia to take longer-term effective measures in terms of industrial structure adjustment and modernization strategies.Fourth,while optimizing China’s diplomatic strategy,combining with China’s actual conditions,it proposes to improve the financial system in four aspects: establishing a financial stability framework,a financial stability guarantee system,an effective and dynamic financial stability monitoring and early warning system,and a financial stability control system.The ability of the financial system to resist risks and maintain stability.And further optimize China’s economic structure,and realize the new economic situation of domestic and international multi-level circulation.