| Food is the head of politics,agriculture is the foundation of the state.Food security has always been an important issue related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Although China has a bumper harvest every year,the supply and demand of food have been in a tight balance.With population growth,consumption upgrades,and the increasing uncertainty and instability of the international situation,food security is particularly important.Since the reform and opening up,especially since the implementation of the household contract responsibility system,the large-scale cross-sectoral and regional transfer of rural labor has also attracted widespread attention from all walks of life.The reduction of labor input in agricultural production caused by the transfer of rural labor,as well as the phenomenon of aging,feminization,and juvenile labor input,have also raised concerns about food security.However,from the data of the past 40 years,the scale of rural labor transfer is getting bigger and bigger,and the scale of food production has not decreased due to the transfer of agricultural labor.The sown area and output of food are both increasing,but the area of food production is increasing.The distribution has changed a lot.Then,what is the impact mechanism of rural labor transfer on the distribution of food production? Then,what is the impact mechanism of rural labor transfer on the distribution of food production? Local governments seek economic development,hoping to jump out of the vicious circle of "a large grain-producing province and a weak economy".How to ensure food security in this situation?This article attempts to systematically analyze the impact of rural labor transfer on food production from two levels: farmers and regions.First,discuss its mechanism from a theoretical perspective,revealing the relationship between factor input and food production;second,verify its impact logic from an empirical perspective,using the micro data of Zhejiang University’s household big data and the macro data of the counties in each region.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the regional shift and concentration of China’s grain production have become prominent.China’s grain supply has achieved a historic change from a long-term shortage to a basic balance in total,with a surplus in harvest.The total amount of grain in 2020 will reach 1.34 trillion catties,completing the "seventeen consecutive harvests" since2004.The trend of regionalization and specialization in the distribution of grain production has become prominent,and grain production has gradually become more concentrated.Specifically,the distribution of grain production areas gradually concentrated.In the 1950 s,there was less grain circulation in various regions,with a net transfer of 27 provinces,while only Heilongjiang,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Henan,and Henan were the only net transfer regions of grain.5 provinces(regions)in Anhui.Grain production has gradually shifted northward,from "sending grain from the south to the north" to "transporting grain from the north to the south".The formerly famous "land of fish and rice",such as the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Hu area of Zhejiang,has been transformed from a place where grain is transferred from a place to a place where grain is transferred.Grain production has decreased and abandonment of grain has occurred;the scale of grain production in Northeast China has gradually expanded,from the "Great Northern Wilderness" to the "Beida Cang".Second,the impact of labor migration on the production decision-making of farmers.The evolution of grain production distribution is an overall reflection of the grain production decision of farmers in the region.The reduction of agricultural labor has caused farmers to use capital to replace labor,and a large number of labor-saving technologies,services,and agricultural capital are gradually promoted.With the increase in capital investment,especially the expansion of the scale of agricultural machinery and the development of agricultural technical services,the concentration area has a greater increase in capital investment compared to the transfer area and the transfer area.Technological progress and increase in capital investment effectively compensated for the negative impact of labor input on agricultural production,It is the main driving force for the increase in agricultural output.The transfer of labor has a negative impact on the scale of farmland management of farmers,inhibits the transfer of farmland,and promotes the transfer of farmland;and the transfer of labor has a role in promoting capital input.It also has a positive impact on the expansion of farmland management scale.Labor transfer increases the supply of land on the market,The increase in capital investment has strengthened the demand for farmland by improving farmers’ agricultural management capabilities,and the two have jointly promoted the prosperity of the rural land market.Third,the impact of rural labor transfer on food production depends on regional endowment conditions.The transfer of rural labor force has an important influence on the transfer of grain production location,and constitutes a push-pull force for the transfer of grain production industry,which gives the region new comparative advantages in grain production.In different regions,there are obvious differences between the agricultural production input decision and the grain growing decision.The proportion of purchasing machinery,hiring labor,purchasing services,and growing grain,The concentration area is the highest,followed by the transfer-in area,and the transfer area is the lowest.In the adjustment of agricultural production scale,the proportion of rented cultivated land in concentrated areas is higher,while the abandonment of land in transfer areas is more serious.Food production is a combination of natural reproduction and economic reproduction,and bears huge natural risks and market risks.Its natural weakness determines that government policy adjustments directly affect food production,and local governments’ agreement and conflicts on economic development and food security goals also promote changes in the distribution of food production.Studies have found that food production tends to be concentrated in areas where capital-labor is easy to replace and the input cost of agricultural production factors is low,When designing food-related policies,it is necessary to distinguish the policy priorities of the whole country from the grain concentration areas,transfer areas,and transfer areas.Give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions in grain production and economic development,and promote regionalized grain production and specialized division of labor.Guide the convection of urban and rural factors,and promote the autonomous,orderly and rational transfer of labor,Introduce agricultural capital,especially increase investment in the level of machinery and equipment in the weak links of grain production,and promote the increase in the mechanization rate of the whole process.Further guide and integrate existing resources,promote the development of socialized agricultural machinery services,and develop high-yield and high-quality grains,Free up space for structural adjustment,enhance the ability to adjust the grain structure,and effectively ensure food security.Actively promote the moderate scale operation of agricultural land,promote the development of land transfer markets,reduce transaction production costs,and improve the efficiency of the use of factors.While paying attention to food security,it is also necessary to be alert to the waste of cultivated land caused by the abandonment of the transfer area and transfer area,and to promote the establishment of reasonable institutional arrangements and service systems. |
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