| Gold is one of the rarest and most precious metals in the metal kingdom,combining the properties of money,commodities and finance.With the continuous changes of the international monetary system,the status of gold has also fluctuated..However,it still plays an important role in the international reserves of countries around the world,and is an significant guarantee for a country’s economic development and financial stability.At the same time,with the continuous development of China’s economy and the expansion of opening-up,the internationalization process of RMB is accelerating,the Belt and Road Initiative is deepening,and the supporting and guaranteeing role of gold is given a prominent position.However,neither China’s current gold reserve nor market development can match the status and development needs of a great power.Therefore,it is of great applicable and theoretical significance tore-understand the strategic value of gold and systematically research and predict the fluctuation of the international gold price.This dissertation expounds the strategic value of gold based on a comprehensive comparison and analysis of several aspects:the world’s and China’s gold reserves and distribution of resources,global gold supply and demand situation,the official gold reserves and the performance of the major global gold markets,concerning the current international political and economic situation,the Belt and Road Initiative,and the strategy to promote the RMB internalization.To be specific,gold has become an important barrier for national economic and financial security due to global political turmoil and increased economic risks.There is a reciprocal logical relationship between the deepening Belt and Road Initiative and refreshing gold market.As China’s financial market has become more open and the international gold market reinforced in-depth integration,China’s gold market ushers in a strategic opportunity for internationalization.The international monetary system is developing towards diversification,and gold promotes the internationalization of RMB.In order to explore the influencing factors of international gold price,this thesis introduces empirical mode decomposition and independent component analysis which own advantages in multi-scale decomposition,adds contribution coefficient screening step to improve decomposition efficiency and quality,and finally constructs a new EEMD-ICA integrated model.The empirical analysis shows that the gold price is mainly influenced by world economic development,gold supply and demand,US dollar,inflation(CPI),market emergencies,international geopolitics,periodicity,etc.The gold price can be expressed in a concise expression by the independent components and their transformation coefficients.The transformation coefficient of each independent component can be regarded as the degree of the importance of its corresponding factor,that is,a quantitative index of the influence of this factor on the gold price.As for the prediction of international gold price,this thesis gives full play to the advantages of EEMD-ICA decomposition model in time series decomposition,and introduces the standard deviation value of ICs after difference as the ranking and classification criteria.ARIMA model is employed to predict the low-frequency component,S VR model to predict the medium-frequency component,and BPNN model to predict the high-frequency component.Therefore,a new EEMD-ICA integrated prediction model is established.The empirical results suggest that the new model is superior to the control model in terms of the prediction numerical evaluation indexes,whether it is a one-month short-term prediction or a six-month medium-term one.It has a great improvement in the prediction accuracy and trend judgment,which is an effective prediction model with stable performance.With regard to the relationship between the global gold markets,this thesis takes the gold index as the research object,the EEMD as the technical methods,and the multiple attributes of gold as the starting point to investigate the dynamic relationship of global gold markets’ price index under different time scales.The empirical results prove that there is a significant two-way Granger causality among the three types of gold markets in the short term.In the medium term,there is no obvious direct lead-lag relationship between G5 currency index and consumer index.However,the producer index leads the consumer index for about 50 days,while the G5 currency index leads the producer index for about 40 days.In the long run,the gold markets of these three types show a trend of steady growth,and the consumer index and the producer index both grow significantly more than the G5 currency index.Based on the findings presented above,it is pointed out that China still faces a series of problems,including the widening gap between gold production capacity and demand,insufficient official gold reserves,inferior status of gold market,and imperfect gold infrastructure.Therefore,this thesis argues that China should attach great importance to the status and role of gold,implement the strategy of gold,and continuously perfect its relative policy system to make gold exert more influence and develop coordinately with our economy and society.Furthermore,this thesis provides several policy suggestions in the light of the cognitive basis,material basis,the market basis and institutional basis etc. |
