| To improve the quality of economic growth is an important issue to be solved urgently.The change of productivity distribution and industrial structure has great influence on the speed and quality of economic growth of a country.However,due to various reasons,especially the lack of complete and coordinated data on capital stock and labor force in different provinces and industries,for a long time,the research on this aspect by Chinese scholars has remained in the preliminary qualitative analysis stage,and the systematic and complete quantitative analysis is still lacking,so it is difficult to provide systematic and accurate quantity standard for the country to formulate appropriate industrial policies and macro-control policies.Therefore,on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact of productivity layout and industrial structure changes on economic growth,this paper systematically collects and estimates the data of the stock of production factors in different industries,provinces and cities in China,and uses the theoretical research results of economic growth for reference,establishes the relevant econometric model,carries out a systematic and quantitative analysis of the impact of changes in the distribution of productive forces and industrial structure on economic growth since the founding of the people’s Republic of China.According to the results of the empirical analysis,some policy suggestions are put forward.The main works of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the change of resource allocation,this paper discusses how the change of productivity distribution and industrial structure affects the change of TFP of the whole national economy,as well as the basic mechanism and theoretical econometric model of the impact of economic growth.This paper systematically reviews the development of productivity distribution theory,layout principles and regional policies at home and abroad,and the policy practice of optimizing the distribution of productive forces in China.(2)This paper discusses in detail how to estimate the stock of fixed capital in China,as well as the stock of capital in different industries and regions and relevant indicators.According to the existing official statistical data and relevant statistical methods.the following indicators are sorted out and estimated,including the national level from 1954 to 2017,the fixed capital stock of 31 provinces and autonomous regions,19 sub industries in China,19 sub industries in 31 provinces and cities in China from 1978 to 2017,as well as the corresponding GDP(added value).social practitioners,etc.Compared with previous estimates,this paper uses a more accurate growth rate of gross fixed capital formation at the national and provincial levels,and it provides important basic data for further quantitative analysis.By comparing the estimation results of capital stock and total factor productivity with the published representative research results,we find that the estimation ideas and methods in this paper are more reasonable and effective.(3)On the basis of previous research results,this paper clearly distinguishes between input capital and effective capital,estimates the output elasticity of capital and labor at the national level,in different regions and in different industries by using the first-order differential logarithm model and relevant econometric methods,and avoids the possible"pseudo regression","sequence correlation","multicollinearity" and "heteroscedasticity"and so on.So as to ensure that the estimated value of output elasticity can not only conform to the economic theoretical analysis,but also pass various statistical and econometric tests.At the same time,the original production function estimation model and the differential logarithm model are tested with robust heteroscedasticity Durbin Wu Hausmann test.It is found that the capital stock is the endogenous explanatory variable of added value,while the differential logarithm model does not have the endogenous problem.Therefore,the differential logarithm model is selected for analysis and calculation.(4)Using the expanded Solow growth model and panel data model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of China’s productivity distribution and industrial structure changes on China’s economic growth,and draws some meaningful conclusions.The result of empirical analysis shows that the economic system reform has played a very positive role in promoting the economic growth of our country.Before the reform and opening up,China’s economic growth mainly depended on the increase of production factors.Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic development is mainly driven by the increase of TFP,rather than simply driven by the increase of the input of production factors.The change of resource allocation between regions and industries,which depends on government and market regulation,has a significant impact on the improvement of TFP in the same period. |
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