| Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has achieved remarkable growth miracle in the world.However,under the influence of changes in the global economic situation,China,facing downward economic pressure,has adopted proactive fiscal policies to strengthen its endogenous growth capacity.As an effective fiscal policy,government investment has always been an important means to deal with the financial crisis and stabilize economic development.In the context of fiscal decentralization in China,local government investment has shown a strong influence on China’s macroeconomic operation.Has been an important policy tool to drive China’s economic growth.With the gradual increase in the scale of local government investment,the benefits of local government investment,such as stabilizing economic development,providing more public goods,guiding social capital to enter,and enhancing social welfare,have gradually emerged.Therefore,to explore the effect of local government investment assessment questions to the Chinese government for the future how to play to function correctly,to carry out the macro investment strategy,promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,can really achieve sustained development of endogenous economic growth model,for the transformation of China to explore the reasonable local government investment policy,guidance of regional economic development direction to provide necessary theoretical and empirical basis.As a municipality directly under the Central Government with the largest area and the largest population in China,Chongqing is an important strategic measure to accelerate the economic and social development in the central and western regions and narrow the gap between the east and the west.In the face of rapid development,Chongqing has made full use of fiscal policies,given full play to the multiplier effect of government investment,vigorously promoted the cooperation projects between government and social capital,and achieved great success,giving full play to the synergic and integrated role of government investment and private investment in promoting effective investment.Therefore,taking Chongqing as a sample,studying the effect of local government investment can play a positive role in demonstrating the investment model of other provinces and cities,and reveal the endogenous driving mechanism of the impact of Chinese government investment on economic growth and social welfare.Firstly,based on the theoretical analysis of the effects of government investment and economic growth,combined with the effective demand theory and elasticity theory,this paper constructs an econometric model with the combination of longitudinal time series analysis and transverse section analysis to test the economic growth effect brought by local government investment in Chongqing.Secondly,it combs the industrial structure change of Chongqing and summarizes the development of various industries in Chongqing in recent years.On this basis,the panel data is used to construct the econometric model to test the specific impact of Chongqing local government investment on various industries.With the help of shift-share analysis,the industrial structure of Chongqing’s first,second and third industries as well as the main pillar industries is analyzed to explore more competitive industrial development.Then,from a short-term and long-term perspective,with the help of co-integration test and panel data model,the paper analyzes the impact of local government investment on employment and household consumption in Chongqing.On the basis of the above analysis,the DEA model is first used to estimate the investment efficiency of Chongqing local government,and then the alternative path of future investment of Chongqing local government is explored with the help of input-output analysis.Finally,through the comprehensive analysis of the full text,the paper puts forward relevant policy enlightenment about local government investment.The main conclusions of this paper include :(1)local government investment does promote local economic growth;(2)From 2010 to 2018,Chongqing’s local government investment promoted the tertiary industry the most,followed by the secondary industry,and the primary industry had a relatively small impact.(3)At the present stage,Chongqing municipal government investment has a positive impact on the industrial structure and a certain promotion effect on the local economy;(4)Similar to the direct economic effect and industrial structure effect,the investment of Chongqing local government plays a certain role in promoting local employment;(5)At the municipal level,the increase of local government investment in Chongqing reduces local residents’ consumption expenditure,and there is a substitution relationship between local government investment and residents’ consumption,with crowding out effect.From the level of district and county,Chongqing municipal level shows that some district and county government investment has a positive impact on consumption;(6)Labor input is still a factor affecting economic growth.However,in the era of disappearing population dividend and economic development led by science and technology,to maintain sustained and stable economic growth,more attention should be paid to the improvement of labor quality.(7)The industrial and real estate industry plays an obvious role in promoting the economic growth of Chongqing,while the advantages of financial industry and warehousing and postal service are not so obvious.(8)On the whole,Chongqing has the potential for economic growth.However,during the sample period from 2010 to 2018,the problems of waste of input resources and low output efficiency in 38 districts and counties of Chongqing are obvious,and the differences in investment efficiency of local governments among regions are also obvious.(9)The increase of total investment by local governments can effectively drive the increase of total output,which has a relatively small impact on the industrial structure,but its investment in the tertiary industry has the greatest possible economic effect.Based on the above conclusions,the relevant policy implications of this paper are as follows :(1)correctly understand the relationship between government investment and private investment to jointly promote economic development;(2)Promote supply-side reform and guide appropriate investment in line with the adjustment of industrial structure;(3)Improve the government investment plan by increasing social welfare;(4)Promote cooperation,mutual complementarity and win-win development between districts and counties through overall planning and coordination. |
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