| With the continuous progress of trade liberalization,especially after China’s entry into the WTO,China’s foreign trade has a rapid development trend.From 2001 to 2018,exports have increased by 7.45 times,with an average annual growth rate of 12.54%,of which exports to the United States have increased by 8.81 times.The average growth rate is 13.66%.Foreign trade has also become one of the "troikas" to promote China’s economic development.But at the same time,China’s foreign trade environment is also facing new dilemmas.First,with the signing of multiple rounds of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements,countries have promised to limit tariffs to lower bound,and the restraining effect of tariffs on international trade has gradually decreased.More and more countries have begun to shift from tariff barriers to non-tariff barriers.Among them,anti-dumping has become the first choice of government trade protection tools because of its legitimacy,concealment and effectiveness.Once the anti-dumping investigation which aims at some product are affirmed,high anti-dumping duties are involved will be levied,which will greatly increase the export costs of enterprises.In recent years,not only the developed countries,but also many developing countries have begun to frequently use anti-dumping measures(Prusa,2001).Anti-dumping has gradually changed from pure protection measures to protect domestic industries from unfair competition by foreign companies into tools for implementing protectionism.Among them,China is the country most frequently subject to anti-dumping investigations.From 1995 to 2015,a total of 4,219 anti-dumping investigations were initiated worldwide(excluding China’s external anti-dumping),and China suffered a total of 1,019,accounting for 24.15%of the total number of investigations.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of anti-dumping on the behavior of Chinese export enterprises.Second,with the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions,Brexit and the decline in global economic growth(IMF,2019),China’s foreign trade is facing increasing uncertainties.However,the existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of deterministic policies on firm behavior,and insufficient research on the uncertainty of trade policy,especially the lack of researches about the effect of impact on the behavior of trade policy as the uncertainty rises.Therefore,this paper aims at this two important issues.It systematically studies the impact of the uncertainty brought by antidumping on the entry and exit,investment,wages,wage labor,and skills structure of firms in the countries where the anti-dumping is initiated.It helps to quantify the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on all aspects of Chinese enterprises,and provides valuable reference for China’s trade policy-making departments to reduce the uncertainty of trade policies facing Chinese enterprises through trade policy practice or trade negotiations.Therefore,based on the perspective of heterogeneous enterprises,this paper combining the specific problems which China’s foreign trade faces,analyzes the impact of anti-dumping on China’s export enterprises from the perspective of products,enterprises and product-enterprise.First,this paper studies the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on firm dynamic entry and exit.Using the global anti-dumping database from 2000 to 2015,this paper finds that the probability of a HS6-digit product exported by China to the United States being subject to anti-dumping investigations is very low(only 3.69%).But a certain product that is subject to anti-dumping investigations in the United States will not be affirmed before,the probability of this product will be anti-dumped again in the United States increases(59.09%and 21.56%).And this paper also find that the HS6-digit products not subject to anti-dumping investigation under the same HS4 with the HS6digit product subject to anti-dumping investigation is more likely to be subject to antidumping investigations.Second,using the China’s transaction-level customs database from 2000 to 2015,the empirical results show that the anti-dumping uncertainty has significantly reduced the number of new export and exit firms which exports affected product to US market.Further it is found that at the enterprise-product level that antidumping uncertainty also significantly reduces the probability of new companies which export affected products entering and exiting the US market,but the anti-dumping uncertainty has a greater negative effect on new enterprises entering the US market than the effect of reducing the exit of enterprises from the US market has led to a reduction in the number of incumbent enterprises overall.This paper also finds that the antidumping uncertainty also significantly reduces the probability of companies that export neighboring products to enter the US market,but it has no significant impact on the exit of companies that have exported neighboring products to the United States.After transforming the control group samples and various tests,the regression results are still robust.Second,this paper studies the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on the actual investment of firms.This paper uses 2000-2013 China’s National Bureau of Statistics(NBS),China’s transaction-level customs database and anti-dumping database to study the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on the actual investment of firms.Empirical results have found that increased anti-dumping uncertainty will increase the actual investment of firms.After a series of robustness tests,the regression results are still valid.And this effect strengthens with the increase of export intensity,and has no effect on low productivity enterprises.Heterogeneity analysis found that anti-dumping uncertainty only promoted increased investment by ordinary trade companies,private companies,multi-product companies,and direct traders.Further mechanism research found that the anti-dumping uncertainty will only promote the increase in investment of surviving companies,but will not have a significant impact on the exiting companies.This is because low-productivity companies withdraw from the market after the antidumping uncertainty increases,which reduces the competition faced by surviving companies.Surviving companies will increase investment,expand production to occupy existing markets,and avoid re-anti-dumping investigations by improving product quality.Impact.In addition,the increase of anti-dumping uncertainty will also increase the actual investment level of the enterprise by increasing the probability of foreign direct investment of enterprises,avoiding anti-dumping investigations.With additional studies,this paper finds the increasing anti-dumping uncertainty of HS6-digit products exported to the United States will prompt Chinese enterprises to invest in a third country,while the investment in the United States has not changed significantly.The main reason may be that the anti-dumping investigation initiated by the United States against China mainly involves labor-intensive products,but the United States does not have a comparative advantage in the production of these products.Third,this paper studies the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on the labor market.This paper uses data from the 2004 and 2008 Chinese economic censuses,NBS and China’s transaction-level customs database from 2000 to 2013,and uses did’s identification strategy to study the impact of anti-dumping uncertainty on the employment,wages,and skills structure of affect firms.We find that increased antidumping uncertainty will increase the employment scale of surviving companies and increase per capita wages by increasing "job creation".After a series of robustness analysis,the regression results are still valid.Analysis of the impact mechanism shows that in order to avoid being affected by anti-dumping again,enterprises affected by antidumping will increase investment and increase innovation,thereby hiring more highskilled labor and increasing per capita wages. |
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