| How to lead China’s macroeconomic stability and reduce the systemic risk of the economy is an important issue in China’s current macroeconomic regulation and control.Macroeconomic policies not only requires pay more attention to achieving and balancing multiple economic objectives,such as economic growth,price stability and debt control,but also requires macroeconomic policies to be more effective and reasonable.Fiscal policy is one of the important means to regulate the economy.Therefore,establishing and following certain fiscal policy rules can provide a stable and predictable policy environment,avoid excessive fluctuations and unstable policy decisions,and have a positive impact on the stable development of the economy.Based on this,the author first introduces inflation into the fiscal policy target system from the perspective of the expansion of the target system of fiscal policy rules and the theory and realistic analysis of the path of spatial expansion.On this basis,the author comprehensively uses the correlation coefficient analysis method,non-linear Granger causality test method and QVAR model and other measurement methods.The correlation between fiscal policy and macroeconomic objectives,the rulesiness of fiscal policy and the effectiveness of fiscal policy are investigated systematically,so as to clarify the systematic problems of the design and effectiveness test of fiscal policy rules in China.The results show that there is a strong correlation between China’s fiscal policy and macroeconomic targets such as economic output,inflation and government debt,and inflation should also be included in fiscal policy rules.China’s fiscal policy has obvious nonlinear adjustment characteristics,the overall regulation inertia is not strong,more emphasis on the monitoring of economic output changes,but relatively less attention to inflation and government debt scale;Active fiscal policy can help to relieve the downward pressure of China’s economy,but it can restrain inflation from the total supply side when the inflation level is low,but pay attention to its right tail risk when the inflation level is high.Moreover,loose and active fiscal policies will lead to the expansion of government debt and debt risks on the whole.Considering that the Chinese economy is currently facing the triple pressure of "demand contraction,supply shock and weakening expectations",the downward pressure of the economic cycle has increased,and the economic performance has slipped out of the reasonable range.To bring the economy back to a reasonable range,fiscal policy needs to maintain an expansionary stance.However,the local government debt problem is not optimistic,and improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy has become an inevitable requirement for balancing the dual goals of "stabilizing economic growth" and "stabilizing government debt".To this end,this paper explores the cyclical change rule of fiscal policy multiplier effect in depth.First,this paper uses the time-varying parameter factor enhanced vector autoregression(TVP-FAVAR)model to measure the time-varying fiscal expenditure multiplier and its business cycle dependence at the macro level in China,and analyzes the heterogeneous multiplier effect of government consumption and government investment.Finally,the panel stratified threshold vector autoregression(PTVAR)model is used to study the spatial heterogeneity and business cycle dependence of fiscal expenditure multipliers in 31 provinces(municipalities and districts).The results show that: China’s fiscal expenditure multiplier has obvious countercyclical characteristics.During the impact of major negative events such as the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,the fiscal expenditure multiplier had a higher value,which was also supported by expansionary monetary policy,and became an important policy force to promote economic recovery.Both government consumption and government investment in China have higher multiplier effect,and the multiplier effect of government investment is higher than that of government consumption,and both of them show a certain degree of counter-cyclical characteristics.From the perspective of both average and heterogeneity,the provincial fiscal expenditure multipliers in economic recession are higher than those in economic boom,and the fiscal expenditure multipliers in different provinces have greater spatial heterogeneity.On the whole,the provincial fiscal expenditure multipliers in central China are the highest,followed by those in eastern China,and those in Northeast and western China are the lowest.In the context of a rapidly aging population and increasing local government debt burden,China’s fiscal space tends to tighten,and the uncertainty of fiscal policy is also rising.Fiscal policy uncertainty,fiscal space and fiscal rules have become several important topics in current fiscal policy research.Since fiscal policy uncertainty may have a negative impact on the economy by weakening market confidence or economic expectations,this paper discusses the time-varying trend of China’s fiscal space and the non-linear characteristics of fiscal rules from the perspective of fiscal policy uncertainty.The results show that the fiscal policy uncertainty estimated by the high-dimensional factor model can accurately reflect the characteristics and trends of fiscal uncertainty.The estimation of time-varying fiscal response function found that the fiscal space of our country presents a structural trend of change and periodic fluctuation.On the whole,there is still a large space for fiscal policy in our country.Fiscal policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on the fiscal space by weakening economic growth.The estimation results of China’s fiscal rules are related to the selection of model variables.If the output gap is taken as the anchor target,then China’s fiscal expenditure does have pro-cyclical characteristics,but with the increase of regulation quality,the pro-cyclical characteristics of China’s fiscal expenditure begin to become less significant.If the "degree of deviation from the economic growth target" is taken as the anchor target,then China’s fiscal expenditure has the characteristics of counter-cyclical regulation around the economic growth target,which has been running through the macro-control process in the past 20 years,and has become an important policy motivation to improve the resilience of China’s economy.China’s fiscal rules take the 2008 international financial crisis as the time demarcation point,showing a strong nonlinear feature.Furthermore,in order to clarify the effects of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation of fiscal policy,this paper empirically tests the causal logic between China’s fiscal policy and economic growth trend through the time-variable Granger causality test model,and systematically analyzes the feedback mechanism between fiscal policy regulation history,longterm trend and economic cycle.And with the help of FAVAR model,the cross-cycle adjustment effect of fiscal policy is tested quantitatively.The results show that fiscal policy has a significant impact on the long-term trend of economic growth and economic cyclical fluctuations,and there is a two-way non-linear causal relationship;After the introduction of economic uncertainty,the effect of counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy is discussed.It is found that the adjustment ability of fiscal policy in the period of stable volatility is weaker than that in the period of increased volatility.Similar to the counter-cycle,the issue of economic uncertainty is also included in the cross-cycle,and the research results show that fiscal policy has a counter-cyclical adjustment effect,and its counter-cyclical adjustment effect is more obvious in the recent sample period,and the action time of policy adjustment is relatively prolonged.This paper attempts to interpret China’s fiscal policy space and its operational effectiveness from the perspective of domestic and foreign economic situations,and deeply analyzes the endogenous and heterogeneous effects of different fiscal policies on business cycles.From the perspective of fiscal policy theory research,we separate fiscal policy and its rule effect from dynamic equilibrium model,and explore the theoretical path of long-cycle or cross-cycle fiscal policy choice.At the same time,by analyzing fiscal rules and testing the effect of policy rules,this paper finds and summarizes the effect of fiscal policy implementation in different stages of China’s economic development,and provides empirical evidence for the current fiscal policy formulation of "stable growth". |
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