The Transmission Mechanism And Empirical Study Of Impact Of Population Migration On Economic Growth In Northeast China

In recent years,population migration in Northeast China has always been a hot issue,which is manifested in the loss of population in Northeast China.The seventh national population census showed that the population of the three northeastern provinces had decreased by 11.03 million people compared with the sixth.After deducting the negative population growth of 700000 caused by the negative natural growth rate,the population has decreased by 10.33 million due to population migration.The economic growth of Northeast China also shows a stagnant situation,so that negative growth occurs in a specific period of time,and there is an inherent and inevitable connection between the two.Exploring its inherent law is the main purpose of this thesis,that is,in-depth study of the transmission mechanism of the impact of population migration on economic growth in Northeast China,and the use of panel data from the three northeastern provinces to demonstrate its inherent law to confirm its objective existence.The discussion of this topic can provide a theoretical basis for solving the problem of population migration and economic growth in the Northeast,and the problem of population loss is not a unique phenomenon in the Northeast.Since provinces such as Guizhou,Sichuan,Henan,Anhui,and Guangxi all have the problem of population loss inhibiting economic growth in different level,the study of the transmission mechanism of the impact of population migration on economic growth in Northeast China will also provide reference for those regions with similar problems,which is the practical significance of this topic discussion.Firstly,the thesis analyzes and interprets the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population from the National Health and Family Planning Commission,and analyzes the corresponding structure of the data samples of the population moving into and out of Northeast China.The emigrated population has the following characteristics compared with the incoming population: from the perspective of age,the proportion of the labor force(15 to 60 years old)of the emigrant population is slightly higher than that of the immigrant population;the proportion of the elderly population from the Northeast who migrated to Hainan,Guangdong and other provinces is relatively high;from the perspective of gender structure,the male proportion of the emigrating population in northeast China is basically balanced;from the educational structure,the proportion of the population that emigrated from Northeast China is higher than that of the immigrant population with higher education;from the perspective of household registration,the proportion of urban household registration population is higher than that of the migrant population,and Northeast population presents a double loss of rural and urban population due to population migration;from the perspective of marriage,the proportion of Northeast emigrant population is higher than that of the immigrant population with a partner,and the population with family pressure has higher requirements in terms of income and needs to support themselves and provide income guarantees for their families.From the perspective of migration reasons,the proportion of the emigrated population is higher than that of the immigrant population due to employment and business reasons,while the proportion of the immigrant population is the opposite because of taking care of children and the elderly.It shows that the people who have moved out of the northeast have a stable source of income in their working and living places,and they can stay at ease,reducing the possibility of moving back to the northeast.From the nature of the employment units,the proportion of the emigrated population is higher than that of the immigrant population in government agencies,public institutions and state-owned enterprises,which means that the employment of the population or labor force relocated from the three northeastern provinces is of high quality,and the probability of the population with high-quality employment moving back to the northeast is reduced.The quality of the emigration population in the Northeast is relatively higher than that of the immigrant population from multiple perspectives.From the perspective of investigating the flow of migrants from the Northeast to the target area,the preferred working and living area is the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,followed by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,and Hainan Province is a hotspot province for the elderly in the Northeast.Secondly,from the perspective of economic theory,there are three paths of Northeast population migration to economic growth.The Northeast population migration in the production field is manifested as population loss,the formation of the transmission mechanism from population loss to economic growth will inevitably lead to profound changes in the labor force structure,the industrial structure will inevitably undergo structural adjustment,the urbanization level of the Northeast will be delayed,and the positioning of the Northeast region will be properly adjusted,which will inevitably make the net migration of the Northeast region through various intermediate links to produce information mechanisms for economic growth.The population loss in the Northeast also has an information transmission mechanism for its economic growth in the consumption field.The consumption is the intermediate link of the transmission chain,income is a strong guarantee for consumption,and the consumption structure is constantly adjusted on the premise of changes in income structure,which forms a transmission mechanism from population loss to economic growth in the consumption field.In the field of investment,the difference between investment income and investment cost will inevitably lead to profound changes in economic growth.The total investment is also related to the financing ability of the investors.The loss of population in the Northeast will inevitably lead to the reduction of investment subjects,and the corresponding decline in total investment,resulting in slow or stagnant economic growth,and vice versa,that is,the transmission mechanism of population migration to economic growth is formed.Thirdly,the econometric method is used to demonstrate the transmission mechanism of the impact of population migration on economic growth,and the panel data model is used to adopt mixed regression,fixed-effects model,and random-effects model for the three chains of population migration to the transmission mechanism of economic growth,a cross-sectional robust standard error is added to make corrections related to the section,and five models are formed for regression analysis.It uses F test and Hausman test to determine that a certain model can accurately estimate the causal relationship between explanatory variables and explained variables.The conclusions and suggestions of this thesis are as follows.First,the migration of Northeast population in recent years has caused the Northeast to show a situation of population loss.The migrant population is dominated by the labor force,and the proportion of male population is higher than that of female population.Second,agricultural household registration accounts for a large proportion of the population emigrated from the Northeast,but the proportion of urban population moving out is no less than 40%,showing a situation of double loss of urban and rural areas.Third,the high-energy population accounts for a relatively high proportion of the emigration population in the Northeast,and the population with advanced degrees accounts for a relatively large proportion.Fourth,the employment quality of migrants from the Northeast is higher in their living and working destinations,and the possibility of returning to the Northeast is lower.Fifth,the population emigration of the Northeast region does have an information transmission mechanism for economic growth,and it has been proved that the Northeast population presents a net outflow situation,which has a slowing and inhibiting effect on economic growth.It is recommended that the government introduce relevant policies to stabilize the population and improve the quality of the population,increase the birth rate,stabilize the employment of the labor force,do a good job in coping with the aging of the population,guide the population to stay in the northeast to build their hometown,promote the orderly flow of the population,and use the transmission mechanism of population migration to effectively improve economic growth.The innovations of this thesis are as follows.First,it tries to extend the theory of the impact of population migration on economic growth based on the existing results.From the three fields of production,consumption and investment,it identifies the transmission path of impact of population migration on economic growth,carries out empirical evidence to clarify the transmission mechanism,and enriches the related theories of population and economic growth.Second,it reveals the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of Northeast population migration affecting economic growth.It provides a strong basis for the introduction of policies to stabilize the population in the Northeast,improve the quality of the population,and guide the orderly flow of the population,and put forward suggestions for the effective use of this transmission mechanism to promote economic growth.Third,this thesis reveals the inherent law of Northeast population migration and economic growth by analyzing the population structure and demonstrating the transmission mechanism of population migration affecting economic growth.The promotion and replication of this law will provide a reference model for solving problems in other regions where similar situations occur.regions where similar situations occur.