| The digital economy is reshaping production methods and service models,accelerating the restructuring of China’s industries and bringing about disruptive changes in the labor market.On the one hand,the new industries and models that are emerging create new paths and forms of labor and employment,absorbing a large number of employed people;on the other hand,the industrialized application of digital technology breaks and reshapes the balance of China’s labor market,creating a whole new demand for employment quantity and employment structure.In the current domestic and international environment of recurring COVID-19 and global economic recession,only by clarifying the main paths through which the digital economy affects employment can we better leverage the employment-creating effects of the digital economy,help workers affected by digitalization to switch jobs,and promote the sustainable optimization and upgrading of China’s employment structure.As the impact of the digital economy on the labor market becomes increasingly evident,in what ways does the digital economy replace or create employment?Which workers will be impacted by its development and which ones will benefit?How to promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s employment structure through the development of digital economy?In response to these questions,the domestic academic community has launched preliminary exploration,but there are still some shortcomings in the existing research,mainly in the following aspects.First,the existing literatures focus on empirical research,the relevant theoretical studies are relatively superficial,and the mechanism of exploration is relatively single.Second,the studies on the measurement of digital economy indicators have not reached a consensus,resulting in relevant empirical research findings that do not accurately reflect the path and direction of the digital economy’s impact on total employment and employment structure.In view of this,firstly,based on the definition of the concepts of digital economy and labor employment,and the review of related literature and classical theories at home and abroad,this paper explains the mechanism and path of the digital economy affecting the total employment and the industrial structure and skill structure of employment from the theoretical level.Secondly,this paper reconstructs and adopts three methods to measure the comprehensive evaluation index of digital economy in province level of China.Thirdly,this paper empirically investigates the main paths and threshold effects of the digital economy on employment from the aggregate level and structural level.In terms of theoretical mechanism,at the aggregate level,this paper integrates Marx’s principle,Western economics and new Schumpeterian innovation to explain six effects of the digital economy on employment,namely,the demand reduction and demand increase effects caused by productivity improvement,the machine substitution and machine compensation effects caused by technological deepening,and the job substitution and job creation effects caused by the old and new paradigm shift.At the structural level,this paper draws on Autor’s "task" analytical framework to explain the differential impact of the digital economy on employment in different industries and different skills,and to examine the groups that suffer and benefit from the development of the digital economy,extending Autor’s "task" analytical framework.In terms of empirical research,firstly,this paper constructs a digital economy index system covering three aspects of informatization,Internet and digital transaction development,and measures the comprehensive evaluation index of digital economy in province level of China by using entropy-TOPSIS method,entropy value method and principal component analysis respectively.From the measurement results,the overall growth trend of China’s digital economy is obvious,and the disparity between regions and between provinces within the region is also obvious.Secondly,this paper empirically tests the theoretical research hypothesis based on the measured digital economy index,and draws the following conclusions.First,the digital economy has both substitution and creation effects on employment,and the current employment creation effect is obvious.The increase in the development level of digital economy reduces employment in primary and secondary industries and increases employment in tertiary industries,and drives the increase in total employment and employment in secondary and tertiary industries by promoting regional economic growth.Second,the impact of digital economy on total employment and employment in secondary and tertiary industries also has a single threshold effect based on the development level of digital economy;as the development level of digital economy increases.the coefficient of its impact on total employment and employment in tertiary industries changes from insignificant to significantly positive,and the negative impact on employment in secondary industries decreases.Third,the increase in the development level of digital economy significantly reduces the share of employment in the secondary industry,especially in manufacturing,and increases the share of employment in the tertiary industry,especially in productive services and high-end services.Fourth,by promoting industrial structure upgrading and human capital stock enhancement,the improvement of digital economy development level can promote the optimization of China’s employment industrial structure.With the upgrading of industrial structure,the role of digital economy in promoting the optimization of employment industrial structure decreases;with the upgrading of human capital,the role of digital economy in promoting the optimization of employment industrial structure increases significantly.Fifth,the increase of digital economy development level decreases the employment of labor force with middle school and high school education levels,increases the employment of labor force with college specialist and above education levels,and has a positive and insignificant impact coefficient on the employment of labor force with elementary school and below education levels.Sixth,by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and human capital stock,the improvement of digital economy development level can promote the upgrading of employment skill structure in China.With the increase of cost of living and human capital investment level,the promotion effect of digital economy on the advanced employment skill structure decreases.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following three aspects.First,this paper explains the mechanism path of digital economy affecting employment from the aggregate level and structural level,which makes up for the deficiency of existing literatures in theoretical mechanism research.Second,this paper takes consideration of comparability and objectivity,and adopts three methods to measure the comprehensive evaluation index of digital economy in province level of China,which enriches the existing studies on the measurement of digital economy indicators.Third,this paper empirically investigates the main paths and threshold effects of the digital economy on employment at both the aggregate and structural levels,which expands the existing research results.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations.Considering the digital economy development gap between regions in China,we should address the differences between different regions and implement precise measures to promote the coordinated development of the digital economy.In order to give better utilize the creative effect of digital economy,we should increase the policy support to benefit enterprises and enable them digital transformation.In order to help workers affected by digitalization to upgrade their skills and achieve re-employment,and to promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of the employment structure,we should deepen the reform of higher education and vocational education,build an education system for lifelong learning,and improve the relevant laws and regulations to protect data security and workers’ rights and interests. |
