A Study Of China’s Low Fertility Levels In The Context Of The Second Demographic Transition

The population structure in China has undergone significant changes and is entering a new era.Overall,China’s population development exhibits both universality and uniqueness compared to developed countries,characterized by the "three lows" phenomenon of low birth rates,low death rates,and low population growth.According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023,the number of births in China in 2022 was only 9.56 million,with a birth rate of6.77‰ and a natural growth rate of-0.60‰.The national population decreased by850,000 compared to the previous year,marking the beginning of a population decline era.The total fertility rate will remain at a low level for a long period under the influence of factors such as the basic release of fertility potential,the continuous reduction in the size of women of childbearing age,the changes in the attitudes of young people towards marriage and childbirth,and the rising costs of child-rearing and education.The literature review in this paper indicates that during the debate on the theory of the second demographic transition by domestic scholars in the early 21 st century,there have been a large number of relevant studies on marriage,family and childbearing in foreign countries.Although domestic scholars have expanded and deepened their understanding of the second demographic transition theory in recent years,and the acceptance of this theory has significantly increased,the relevant research is mainly focused on marriage and family,with insufficient consideration of social background changes and especially limited research on low fertility levels from an empirical perspective.Therefore,based on the Chinese context and the localization of the second demographic transition theory,this paper attempts to conduct a systematic study on low fertility levels in China from three perspectives of marriage transition,fertility transition,and social background changes.This paper not only expands and researches the second demographic transition theory but also aims to analyze China’s second demographic transition and low fertility levels from new perspectives.In terms of data,this paper mainly uses data from the National Population Census,the World Bank database,the China Household Tracking Survey,and relevant data from the National Bureau of Statistics for descriptive analysis,empirical research,and trend predictions on the low fertility levels in China from the perspective of the second demographic transition.Conclusions are drawn according to the above research and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.Specifically,this paper mainly analyzes and studies the topic in the following seven chapters.Chapter Ⅰ serves as an introduction,providing an overview of the research background,main research issues,the value and significance of localizing the second demographic transition theory in China,the research approach,content,methods,and possible innovations.Chapter Ⅱ is a literature review that comprehensively and systematically surveys the domestic and international research on low fertility levels,the second demographic transition,and the relationship there between,which provides a foundation and reference for the subsequent research.Chapter Ⅲ focuses on the study of basic concepts and theories.The concept of low fertility levels and demographic transition is explained in depth at first,with a further division of the second demographic transition in China into three stages:the first stage of cumulative negative population growth,the second stage of negative population growth,and the third stage of complex population growth.The Chapter then introduces two production theories,demographic transition theory,fertility economic theory,fertility behavior theory,and fertility culture theory,along with their application in this paper.At last,based on the synthesis of relevant literature,concepts,and theories,the theoretical analysis framework of this study is constructed.Chapter Ⅳ analyzes the evolution,characteristics,and causes of the low fertility levels in China from the perspective of the second demographic transition.It starts by analyzing the process of low fertility levels in China since 1968 and the change and development since 1991,finding that the role of fertility policy has changed from primary to secondary,and the influence of economic and social development,as well as marriage and childbearing attitudes,has gradually increased.Then,the research identifies the characteristics of low fertility levels in China as showing a spontaneous decline,with a challenging development outlook and significant regional differences.Furthermore,based on the second demographic transition,the causes of low fertility levels are analyzed.In terms of marriage transition,this Chapter observes a significant delay in marriage age,a fluctuation and decrease in the number and rate of marriages,a significant increase in the number and rate of divorces,and an increase in cohabitation.In terms of fertility transition,the Chapter reflects a significant delay in the age of first childbirth,changes in the fertility status by birth order,and significant shifts in fertility attitudes.As for social background changes,the Chapter highlights the improvement of social security,the strengthening of gender equality attitudes,and the increasing population mobility.Chapter Ⅴ conducts empirical research on the low fertility levels in China from the perspective of the second demographic transition.Using the Coale fertility index and generalized ordered logit regression,this Chapter makes an empirical study on the impact of marriage transition,fertility transition,and social background changes on low fertility levels in China.The study reveals that the impact of marriage transition on low fertility levels is mainly reflected in a significant reduction in fertility within marriage;the impact of fertility transition on low fertility levels is mainly reflected in the weakening influence of traditional fertility motivations,while the influence of individual and family fertility motivations is relatively limited;the impact of social background changes on low fertility levels is mainly reflected in the significant influence of social security,attitudes towards family gender roles,and population mobility factors.Chapter Ⅵ focuses on the research on the changing and developing trends of low fertility levels in China from the perspective of the second demographic transition.At first,the Chapter analyzes and assesses the deepening trends of the second demographic transition in China,stating that future trends include increasing diversity in marriage and family,the continued acceleration of fertility transition,and a more complex social background.Second,the Chapter explains the prediction process in this study from the perspectives of prediction explanation,prediction methods and parameter settings.Furthermore,the prediction results of this paper show that China will experience negative population growth,a relatively stable birth population,declining fluctuations in birth rates and natural growth rates,a decrease in the proportion of the working-age population,an initial decrease and subsequent increase in the proportion of children,and a continuous increase in the proportion of the elderly population.Chapter Ⅶ presents the research conclusions and policy recommendations.Based on the comprehensive research conducted,this paper draws four main conclusions: the second demographic transition theory can explain the low fertility levels in China;the low fertility levels in China exhibit complexity and uniqueness in the formation and development;low fertility levels in China are not conducive to long-term population balanced development;the population in China will experience long-term negative population growth under low fertility levels.Accordingly,four policy recommendations are put forward.First,deepen the theoretical research on the second demographic transition in China,emphasizing the importance of understanding and studying the second demographic transition in China,and promoting the guiding role of the theory in practice.Second,establish a unique fertility policies support system with Chinese characteristics in the new era,including the acceleration of economic incentive policies,public service policies,and welfare system policies.Third,actively create a social environment that promotes moderate fertility levels,such as shifting the focus from considering children as individual family products to societal public goods,emphasizing the development of marriage and childbearing culture and family culture,and highlighting the attractiveness of the excellent marriage and childbearing culture of the Chinese nation.Fourth,guide the youth to take the responsibilities and missions of population development in China,with an emphasis on shouldering the burden of population development in the new era,encouraging the youth to assume family responsibilities,and creating a favorable environment for the youth’s development through media efforts.In addition,this Chapter identifies the limitations of this study and provides prospects for future research.Overall,this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis and research on low fertility levels in China in the context of the second demographic transition from the perspectives of theoretical foundations,cause analysis,empirical research,trend predictions,and conclusions and recommendations.The main contributions of this paper lie in the following three aspects: First,it offers an innovative research perspective by employing the second demographic transition theory as a framework to systematically study the evolution,current situation,causes,and development trends of low fertility levels in China,expanding and enriching the related research on low fertility levels in China,extending the application of the second demographic transition theory to China.Second,it presents theoretical innovations by constructing a localized research framework based on the second demographic transition theory,conducting an in-depth study on the current situation of low fertility levels in China and its influencing factors.This paper tentatively explores the second demographic transition into three stages and conducts an empirical study on low fertility levels in China based on the research framework of the second demographic transition under the Chinese context,expanding the explanation of low fertility levels in China by the second demographic transition theory.Third,it demonstrates content innovations by researching and predicting the deepening trends of the second demographic transition in China,providing insights into the development trends of low fertility levels in China,and analyzing the impacts and forecasted results of low fertility levels in the future.