| Dual-economic transformation is an important strategic issue that developing countries need to face in the process of industrialization.For a long time,China has been regarded as a typical dual-economic structure with unlimited labor supply.Economic reform and opening up have made full use of this factor endowment,and a large amount of agricultural surplus labor has continuously migrated to cities.It has greatly promoted the process of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization in China,and also promoted the rapid growth of the Chinese economy.In the 40 years of reform and opening up,China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of nearly 10%.It has now become the world's second largest economy and has entered the ranks of middle-and high-income countries.The historical process of economic development in developed countries?regions? shows that the productive population structure formed by demographic transition can provide demographic dividends for dual-economic transformation and promote dual-economic transformation.Japan,South Korea,and Chinese Taiwan all have demographic transitions before dual-economic transitions.The difference is that the demographic transition in Japan is synchronized with crossing the commercialization point,while the demographic transition in South Korea and Chinese Taiwan occurred after the commercialization point.The demographic dividend resulting from the demographic transition contributed to the completion of the dual-economic transformation,allowing Japan,South Korea and Chinese Taiwan to make the transition from low-income to middle-income economies to developed economies.In the early 1990 s,China entered the third stage of demographic transition.The rapid and early demographic transition has caused China to form a huge demographic dividend in the short term.Pushing the labor market to cross the Lewis turning point.past the Lewis turning point.At present,China is in a critical period of dual-economic transformation.Since the demographic transition was completed before the dual-economic transformation,now,the decline of demographic dividend makes our country face the dilemma of relatively insufficient labor supply,increasing the burden of maintenance,and decreasing investment and savings.Once the population dividend turns into the population debt,our economy will face downward pressure,if effective measuresare not taken,the dual-economic transformation may be stalled,and then fall into the "middle-income trap".This is also a huge challenge facing our country in the middle and late period of the dual-economic transformation.Scholars have discussed the relationship between demographic transition and dual-economic transformation from the aspects of demographic transition affecting labor supply,population aging affecting dual-economic transformation,etc.However,the existing research lacks systematic and in-depth theoretical analysis of the impact of demographic transition on dual-economic transformation.According to the basic theory of Marxist political economy,there is a unity of opposites between material reproduction and population reproduction.Although economic and social development are determined by the mode of social production,population growth and its evolution also play an important role in promoting or delaying economic and social development.According to this basic principle,this paper studies the mechanism of the effect of demographic transition on dual-economic transformation;summarizes the characteristics of demographic transition in different stages of dual-economic transformation;investigates the history and current situation of demographic transition and dual-economic transformation in China,this paper conducts an econometric test on the impact of China's demographic transition on dual-economic transformation.Based on the experience of population transformation in Japan,South Korea and Chinese Taiwan,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop population dividend to promote China's dual-economic transformation.This paper mainly analyzes the impact of China's demographic transition on the dual-economic transformation from four parts: theoretical analysis,empirical experience of China,foreign experience reference and countermeasures and suggestions.The research contents are as follows:The first part is the theoretical analysis.According to the research status of demographic transition theory,dual-economic theory and the relationship between these two parts at home and abroad,the main academic viewpoints are summarized.Starting from the connotation of dual economic transformation,the paper summarizes the core content and three development stages of dual-economic transformation,and discusses the effect of demographic transition on the dual-economic transformation from three aspects: labor supply,capital accumulation and technological innovation.and summarizes the interactiverelationship between population transformation and dual-economic transformation.The second part is empirical experience of China.Through the statistical description of the history and current situation of China's demographic transition and dual-economic transformation,based on the theoretical analysis,this paper conducts an econometric test on the impact of China's demographic transition on dual-economic transformation.The regression model is established by choosing economic variables such as binary contrast coefficient,population dependency ratio,proportion of agricultural labor force,investment rate,ratio of disposable income of urban and rural residents,and growth rate of total power of agricultural machinery.The data from 1990 to 2017 were used to analyze the population.The decline in the population dependency ratio has formed a demographic dividend that is conducive to economic development and has promoted the transformation of China's dual-economic.However,the persistent low birth rate,low mortality rate,low growth rate,the decline in the dependency ratio of the children,and the increase in the old-age dependency ratio have made the dual-economic transformation in China face difficulties such as a reduction in the labor force,an increase in the burden of old-age pensions,and a diminishing demographic dividend.In the middle and late stages of dual-economic transformation are facing severe challenges.The third part is the foreign experience reference.The demographic transitions in Japan,South Korea,and Chinese Taiwan have preceded the transformation of the dual-economic,and the resulting demographic dividend has contributed to the completion of the dual-economic transformation.However,due to the different speeds of transformation,the role of demographic transition also presents different stage characteristics.This paper starts from the stage of dual-economic transformation and demographic transition in Japan,South Korea and Chinese Taiwan.According to its staged development characteristics,it summarizes the experience of demographic transition in Japan,South Korea and Chinese Taiwan to promote dual-economic transformation,that is,the use of demographic dividend,the promotion of human capital,the adjustment of the birth policy,and the alleviation of the pressure on the aging population.These experiences have important implications for China in transformation.The fourth part is the countermeasures and suggestions.At present,China is in the third stage of demographic transition of "low birth rate,low mortality rate and lowgrowth rate".The proportion of the working-age population is declining,the old-age dependency ratio continues to rise.Facing the decline of population dividend,in order to promote the transformation of dual-economic,we must coordinate the internal quantity and structure of population reproduction,and start from the aspects of deep tapping into potential demographic dividends,actively developing human capital dividends,enhancing reserve future population dividend,and developing and utilizing the old population dividend,to reduce the dependence of the dual-economic transformation on cheap labor and overcome the adverse effects of rising dependency ratios. |
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