| In recent years,along with big data,cloud computing,deep learning and other fields to achieve technological breakthroughs,artificial intelligence technology as the core of a new round of scientific and technological revolution in the global rises,AI technology-led industrial robot applications also show a booming trend.China attaches great importance to the construction of industrial intelligent system and the intelligent transformation of the whole industry,and seizes the "fourth industrial revolution" with AI technology as the core to achieve technological upgrading and high-quality economic development.However,the application of industrial robots has a huge impact on labor employment while achieving economic transformation and development.Since AI technology integrates machine learning,computer vision and other technologies,it has the property of imitating and deriving human brain,compared with previous industrial technology revolutions,AI technology can not only replace the labor in simple,routine and easy-to-program positions,such as telephone operators,cashiers,streamline workers and so on.It can also replace labor in complex positions that require calculation,thinking,analysis,and judgment,such as driving,translation,and customer service.At the same time,the development of AI technology gives rise to a large number of new industries and new jobs related to AI,which increase labor demand and compensate for the employment substitution effect caused by the application of industrial robots.Therefore,the new round of technological revolution led by AI technology inevitably has a more important impact on labor employment.The general purpose and skill-biased attributes of industrial robot applications triggers job alternation and change the income distribution of skilled labor,which affects the stability of labor employment.The literature focus more on the impact of industrial robots on the quantity of labor employment and generally ignored the change in the quality of labor employment,especially the lack of micro-level evidence to examine the stability of labor employment at the individual level.This paper explores the impact of industrial robot applications on labor employment stability at the micro-individual level,and systematically reviews the literature on industrial robot applications and labor employment stability,establishes a general equilibrium model that includes intermediate and final product sectors,and mathematically deduces the effects and transmission mechanisms of industrial robot applications on labor employment stability,uses multidimensional measures of industrial robot application and labor employment stability indicators,and uses charts to present the time evolution trends and spatial distribution characteristics of industrial robot application and labor employment stability,respectively.This paper empirically examines the effects of industrial robot applications on labor employment stability,explores the transmission mechanisms of labor job alternation,industrial structure upgrading,and skill income distribution,further analyzes the individual,occupational,and urban heterogeneity characteristics of the effects of industrial robot applications on labor employment stability,and proposes corresponding policy recommendations in this regard.The specific research contents and findings are as follows:First,the effect of industrial robot application on labor employment stability is deducted mathematically.A general equilibrium model with intermediate and final product sectors is constructed,in which industrial robots are used in two technological forms: intelligent expansion and new job creation,and low-skilled and high-skilled labor are introduced according to their skill levels,and conventional and nonconventional jobs are introduced according to their complexity.This paper finds that industrial robot applications mainly manifest in two technological forms: intelligent expansion and new job creation,which affect the employment stability of low-skilled and high-skilled labor and conventional and non-conventional jobs through the transmission mechanisms of labor job alternation,industrial structure upgrading and skill income distribution.Specifically,the expansion of intelligent technology due to the application of industrial robots reduces the number of conventional jobs,and the creation of new jobs increases the number of non-conventional jobs,resulting in job alternation and thus reducing the employment stability,the direction of the impact of industrial structure upgrading on the employment stability is not definite,but depends on the relative size of inter-industry elasticity and inter-job elasticity,the distribution of skill income can be analyzed from the perspectives of low-skilled and high-skilled labor respectively.The distribution of skill income can be analyzed from two perspectives,namely,low-skilled and high-skilled labor.The decrease of the income share of lowskilled labor makes the demand for low-skilled labor decrease,while the increase of the income share of high-skilled labor makes the demand for high-skilled labor increase,both of which reduce the employment stability of labor.Second,this paper analyzes the characteristic facts of industrial robot adoption and labor employment stability in China.This paper measures the level of industrial robot application based on three dimensions: the penetration of industrial robots,the number of industrial intelligent technology patents,and the number of industrial intelligent technology enterprises,and measures the level of labor employment stability based on three dimensions: the years of labor contracts signed,job duration,and job change frequency,and examines the time evolution characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of industrial robot application and labor employment stability,respectively.The time evolution characteristics of industrial robot applications show that industrial robot applications in China shows a rapid growth trend during 2001-2019.The spatial distribution characteristics of industrial robot applications show that the Yangtze River Delta,the southern coastal and northern coastal regions are the regions with higher industrial robot applications,the southwest and northwest regions have lower industrial robot applications,and the regions with high intellectual property protection and high marketization levels have relatively higher industrial robot applications.The time evolution characteristics of labor employment stability show that labor employment stability shows a decreasing trend during 2014-2018.The spatial evolution of labor employment stability shows that,in terms of individual characteristics,the level of employment stability is higher for male,non-farm household,higher education level and young workers;in terms of occupational characteristics,the level of employment stability is higher for workers in occupations with good working environment,high job security,indoor workplace and higher degree of job autonomy;in terms of urban characteristics,the level of labor employment stability is higher in the northern coastal region,Yangtze River Delta region and southern coastal region,and the lower level of labor employment stability in cities with lower labor protection intensity and lower level of financial education expenditure.Third,this paper empirically tests the effect of industrial robot applications on labor employment stability.The benchmark test shows that industrial robot application in China has a negative effect on the level of labor employment stability,and it holds at employment stability measured by three dimensions: length of contract signed,job duration,and frequency of job change.The baseline regression results still hold after robustness testing by replacing the measures of core variable indicators,changing data sources,and adjusting the sample.After selecting U.S.industrial robot penetration,historical number of computers,and historical level of information infrastructure as instrumental variables,combined with instrumental variables based on heteroskedasticity generation to address the possible endogeneity of the impact of industrial robot adoption on labor employment stability,two-stage least squares suggests that the findings in the benchmark test still hold.Fourth,the transmission mechanisms of labor job alternation,industrial structure upgrading,and skill income distribution of the impact of industrial robot application on labor employment stability are empirically examined.The labor job alternation mechanism suggests that industrial robot applications make the scale of labor demand for skilled versus unskilled jobs and nonconventional versus conventional jobs expand,which in turn leads to a decrease in labor employment stability.The industrial structure upgrading mechanism shows that the application of industrial intelligent technology can promote the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure,i.e.,it promotes the increase of the coupling degree of production factors between sectors and increases the efficiency of the flow of production factors between sectors,which in turn leads to the decrease of labor employment stability.At the same time,the application of industrial intelligent technology can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,that is,the application of industrial robots mostly replaces part of the labor in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors and creates more new and high-end service industries,which makes more labor flow into the tertiary industry and leads to the decrease of labor employment stability.The mechanism of skill income distribution shows that industrial robot applications as a whole reduce the income share of lowskilled labor and increase the income share of high-skilled labor,causing labor to make the decision to quit or change jobs due to the decline of wages or the desire to join new industries in intelligent fields,which leads to the reduction of labor employment stability level.Fifth,the individual,occupational and city heterogeneity characteristics of the impact of industrial robot application on labor employment stability are empirically analyzed.The individual-level heterogeneity analysis shows that the employment stability of labors with lower professional skill level,lower cognitive ability,lower noncognitive ability,poorer family economic status,and lower family education is more affected by the industrial intelligence technology.Occupation-level heterogeneity analysis shows that robot applications significantly reduce the employment stability of labors engaged in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,poorer environment,lower safety,outdoor places,and less autonomous occupations.The citylevel heterogeneity analysis shows that industrial robot applications have a more significant negative impact on the employment stability of the labor in cities belonging to the Yangtze River Delta and the eastern and northern coastal regions,with lower levels of financial education expenditures,lower levels of labor protection,lower levels of intellectual property protection,and lower levels of marketization.Sixth,based on the results of the previous study,this paper proposes policy recommendations from five aspects: workers,enterprises,intelligent technology policy-making departments,education departments,and labor and social security departments.Workers should improve their skills to cope with the impact of intelligent reform through independent learning,continuing education and vocational training.Enterprises should provide pre-service and on-the-job training for employees,strengthen the construction of intelligent R&D platforms,and actively engage in exchanges and cooperation with leading enterprises of intelligent technology at home and abroad.Intelligent technology policy-making departments should make policies for the development of intelligent technology in different regions according to local conditions,and target the cultivation and development of new industries and jobs derived from intelligent technology.The education department should build a professional teacher team of intelligent technology and strengthen the construction of skilled personnel.The labor and security departments should expand the scope of social security and establish sound re-employment support policies. |
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