Research On Financial Security Of Old-age Insurance For Urban Employees In China Under The Background Of Delayed Retirement

With the aging of our country’s population becoming more and more serious,some prov Since its establishment in 1951,my country’s urban employees’ pension insurance system has undergone many institutional transitions.The hidden debts brought about by the transition have gradually become more explicit as the country’s population ages.Some provinces have experienced an emergency situation of urban employee pension insurance funds.At the same time,after my country reached the peak of the working-age population in 2013,the working-age population has been declining for eight consecutive years.Under this new economic development situation,the pressure on the future payment of my country’s urban employee pension insurance will continue to increase.At the same time,it has brought huge challenges to the sustainability of my country’s urban employee pension insurance.Therefore,the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues of Comprehensively Deepening Reform" adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee pointed out that the principle of actuarial balance should be adhered to and a more fair and sustainable social security system should be established.Since then,the central government has successively introduced fiscal security policies such as the adjustment fund policy,the pension market access policy,and the transfer of state-owned capital.The "14th Five-Year Plan" clearly states that the statutory retirement age will be gradually delayed in accordance with the principles of small-step adjustment,flexible implementation,classified promotion,and overall planning.The decision to deepen the reform and the "14th Five-Year Plan" further shows that the party and the state are paying more and more attention to the sustainability of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country.In-depth analysis of the main responsibility of the pension insurance service for urban employees in my country,improve the level of financial security of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country,ensure the current and future sustainable operation of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country,improve the effectiveness of the financial security of the pension insurance for urban employees in China,and explore the delay in retirement Under the background,the necessity,possibility,and the corresponding feasibility results of the financial guarantee of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country have important theoretical and practical significance.This article mainly discusses the financial security of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country from the following parts:First,based on the theoretical analysis of the financial security of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance,this article re-deconstructs the financial security responsibilities,models and concepts of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance.Clarify the role,responsibility and role of financial security in the operation of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country.Clearly define the security objectives and coverage of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance financial security.So as to develop a set of guidance system that has more explanatory power and guiding significance for the practice of financial security of urban employee pension insurance in my country.Second,the current situation and problem analysis of the financial security of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country.First of all,this article starts from the evolution of my country’s urban employee pension insurance and briefly analyzes the characteristics of my country’s urban employee pension insurance system.Analyze the relevant data of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance from 2015 to 2019 to realize the analysis of the current situation and problems of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance.Secondly,this article reviews the development of my country’s urban employee pension insurance financial security,sorts out the development context of my country’s urban employee pension insurance financial security,and further analyzes the problems existing in the financial security of urban employee pension insurance.Third,my country’s urban employee endowment insurance financial needs calculations use actuarial methods,based on the sixth census data,the 2015 census data,and the seventh census number briefing data to analyze the urban population structure in recent years(including the age of the population).Structure,insured population structure,etc.)data changes,and use this to further predict the number change trend of my country’s urban population structure from 2020 to 2035 in the future.On this basis,according to our country’s actual situation and drawing on some useful foreign experience,we can design a delayed retirement plan that suits our country’s national conditions.Taking into account the historical reasons in our country,the form of participating in the pension insurance for urban employees in our country is more complicated.It is necessary to classify and calculate the number of recipients and the number of contributions,so as to better quantitatively compare the effectiveness of the delayed retirement age program.This article is based on my country’s endowment insurance system,taking full consideration of the calculation methods applicable to the insured groups of urban enterprise employees of all ages,targeting different insured groups("newcomers","middle-aged","elderly"),different accounts(pooling accounts and Personal accounts)establish an urban employee pension insurance revenue and expenditure model to test the sustainability of my country’s urban employee pension insurance under various retirement plans of different ages under the current system.Fourth,simulation of the effects of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance fiscal security policy and fiscal subsidy program.First of all,this article uses the risk parity model to simulate the investment rate of return of pension funds entering the market,and uses the gray forecast model to predict the future profitability of my country’s state-owned enterprises.And combined with national policy requirements and similar foreign policy experience,respectively,formulate policy plans to measure the impact of fiscal security policies such as pension funds entering the market and state-owned enterprise profit transfer on my country’s urban occupational insurance funds.Secondly,this article combines the above two policies and retirement plans to calculate the balance of my country’s urban occupational insurance fund under each policy combination.Third,this paper designs a financial subsidy scheme based on the principle of payment and calculation of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country,and continues to combine with the original policy guarantee scheme to form a financial guarantee scheme and calculate the cumulative balance of it.Finally,in order to make the cost of funds generated by the above fiscal security schemes comparable,this paper uses the method of discounting to discount the cumulative cost of funds generated by all schemes until 2020,and obtain the cumulative discount of the cost of funds for urban occupational insurance in my country under each scheme.The main conclusion of this article.First of all,this article discovers through research that there are three major problems in my country’s urban employee endowment insurance financial security-insufficient security mechanisms,insufficient security laws,and insufficient clarity of security responsibilities.The causes of these problems are mainly due to the multiple transitions of the insurance system,the inconsistency of financial power and power between governments,overlapping responsibilities between various government departments,and the relatively backward legislative process.Secondly,this article uses the population actuarial method to predict the future population structure of my country’s urban population,and combines the practical experience of the delayed retirement policy of foreign developed countries to set up a retirement plan,and finds the size of the population of my country’s urban employee pension insurance under different retirement policy conditions.On this basis,according to the principle of payment and calculation of the pension insurance for urban employees in China,a revenue and expenditure model of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country is established,and the long-term self-balance of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country is calculated.When the accumulated balance of pension insurance is exhausted,under the current retirement policy,my country’s urban employee pension insurance will be exhausted from2027.Thirdly,this article uses risk parity model and grey forecast model to simulate the effect of pension market policy and state-owned enterprise profit transfer policy and other fiscal security policies.On this basis,27 policy security schemes are obtained to estimate the sustainability of my country’s urban employee pension insurance.The calculation results show that the fiscal security policy cannot change the gradual decrease in the cumulative balance of the pension insurance fund for urban employees in China,and there is still a funding gap in the pension insurance for urban employees in my country.From time to time,this paper designs financial subsidy schemes based on the principle of payment and calculation of pension insurance for urban employees in my country,and combines with 27 policy guarantee schemes to obtain 81 financial guarantee schemes,and calculates the cumulative balance of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance under each scheme,and the results are calculated.It shows that there are 13 kinds of plans that can guarantee the steady growth of the accumulated balance of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country.It further indicates that the sustainable operation of the pension insurance for urban employees in my country requires the joint efforts of fiscal security policies,retirement policies,and financial subsidies.Finally,this article uses the discount method to compare the capital costs generated by 81 financial security schemes.The calculation results show that with the gradual increase in retirement policies,financial security policies,and financial subsidies,the financial security funding costs of my country’s urban employee pension insurance are also gradually decreasing.It shows that increasing the intensity of policy funding can effectively reduce the funding cost of my country’s urban employee endowment insurance financial security.