Study Of The Impact Of Population Aging On The Income And Expenditure Of Pension Fund For The Urban Workers In Anhui Province

The ageing of the population is one of the most important issues in society today,and the social security system and family problems caused by the ageing of the population have become a hot topic of discussion and analysis among scholars.Social policies such as the old-age insurance system and the reimbursement of major illnesses are even more touching.If the proportion of the population aged over 65 in the total population of a certain region exceeds 7%,we can say that the region has entered the stage of population ageing according to the indicators set by the United Nations.China entered an ageing society in2000,and in order to cope with this situation,a comprehensive pension insurance system has been set up to protect the normal living expenses of the elderly.As the ageing process continues,the income and expenditure of the urban workers’ pension insurance fund will be affected,and some provinces even have the phenomenon of the pension insurance fund not being able to cover its expenses.In 1998,the proportion of the elderly population(aged65 and above)in Anhui province was 7.02%,two years ahead of the national average,and the province is also in the middle to upper range of China in terms of economic level and population base.This paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction,which mainly introduces the background and significance of the study,a review of the referenced domestic and international literature,the main contents and methods of the study,and the innovations and shortcomings of the study.The second part is a theoretical analysis,which mainly explains the basic concepts of population ageing and urban workers’ pension fund income and expenditure and elaborates the theoretical basis related to them,and finally analyses the mechanism of the impact of ageing on pension fund income and expenditure.The third part analyses the current situation of population ageing and the income and expenditure of urban workers’ pension insurance funds in Anhui Province,concluding that the development trend of population ageing in Anhui Province is fast and the degree of ageing varies greatly from one region to another,and that the overall situation is one of ageing before wealth,and analyses the factors leading to this phenomenon,including a sound social pension system,a low birth rate and a low mortality rate.This is followed by an introduction to the basic concept of pension insurance,the current methods of income and expenditure of urban workers’ pension insurance,and a specific analysis of the situation in Anhui Province,which introduces the urban workers’ pension insurance policy and the history of reform.In the fourth part,the Leslie model is used to predict the total population and demographic structure of Anhui Province between 2020 and 2050 based on two fertility rates,and this is used as the explanatory variable;a severity of ageing factor,a socio-economic system development factor,and a degree of pension insurance system construction factor are used to establish the regression equation with the income and expenditure of the urban employees’ pension insurance fund.The ageing factor is predicted from the Leslie model,while the socio-economic system development factor and the degree of pension insurance system construction factor are predicted by the time series model.The final data are taken into the regression equation to obtain the predicted income and expenditure of urban workers’ pension insurance fund in Anhui Province for the next30 years.The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestions for countermeasures,which is based on the results of the above empirical study.Based on the forecasts obtained above,this paper concludes that,as the ageing process in Anhui Province continues,the difference between the income and expenditure of the urban workers’ pension insurance fund will continue to narrow,and in the future there will even be a phenomenon of expenditure exceeding income,and the difference between income and expenditure will be smaller in the future under low fertility rate,and the time when income will not cover expenditure will be five years higher than under high fertility rate.From this,we can see that an ageing population will affect the fund’s income by reducing the number of contributors and slowing down economic development,and affect the fund’s expenditure by extending the time frame for payment and increasing the number of contributors.In response to this conclusion,the article puts forward a series of targeted suggestions and recommendations,including learning from the laws and regulations of Western developed countries,increasing the capacity to manage pension funds,delaying the retirement age of workers,and expanding the coverage of urban workers’ pension insurance participants.