The Influence And Prediction Of Social Health And Physical Activity On Physical And Mental Health Of The Elderly

Research background and objectivesPopulation aging is a major problem that needs to be solved by the Health China 2030 plan,and it is a serious challenge for China.China has entered into an aging society,and the problems of heavy population aging and advanced ageing are becoming more and more serious.More and more elderly people are facing physical and mental health problems,which seriously hinder the social and economic development of China,and how to deal with aging scientifically and reasonably is a major issue that China must face.How to deal with aging in a scientific and reasonable way is a major issue in China.Exploring social health and physical activity to improve the physical and mental health of the elderly has become the focus of academic circles.Studies have shown that social health and physical activity are important means to improve health problems such as obesity,chronic diseases,emotional and depression in the elderly,but the importance and pathways of these influencing factors are still controversial,the assessment dimensions and contents of the variables have not yet been uniformly determined,and the accuracy of relevant research findings is still in doubt.At present,there is a lack of representative large sample studies of elderly health from a health management perspective.In order to improve the health status of the elderly population and better promote the national strategy of healthy aging,the main research objectives of this paper are to elucidate the factors influencing social health and physical activity on the physical health and mental health of the elderly according to the social ecological theory,Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory and other related theories,to explore the paths of action on the physical health and mental health of the elderly,to establish a prediction model of physical and mental health risks of the elderly,and to argue the issue of age heterogeneity of the elderly.Research methodologyIn this study,a health survey was conducted in Shandong Province,Jiangsu Province,Henan Province,Heilongjiang Province,Hunan Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2019 through a multistage sampling method on elderly people aged 60 years and above,and excluding elderly people who were bedridden for a long time or had serious physical or mental illnesses,and a total of 7536 elderly people finally completed the basic information,social health,physical activity and physical and mental health.Cronbach’s alpha,exploratory factor analysis,and validation factor analysis were used to critically modify and test the validity of the instruments.Logistic regression models and random forest models were used to investigate the factors influencing physical health and mental health of the elderly and the degree of importance.By constructing multiple mediated chain structural equation models,we analyzed the effects and pathways of social health and physical activity on physical health(obesity,chronic diseases)and mental health(emotional,chronic diseases)of the elderly;by using structural equation models,we conducted multi-cluster analysis to argue the differences of the elderly at different ages;by building genetic-BP neural network prediction models,we explored the predictive efficacy of social health and physical activity on the physical and mental health status of the elderly,analyzed the issue of age heterogeneity,and explained the mechanism of the prediction models by PDP.Study resultsIn this study,the significant correlates of physical and mental health of older adults were analyzed by logistic regression models,and the most important correlated indicator factors were analyzed using random forest models.At the physical health level,the five most significant correlates of obesity were:distance to sports or recreation in the community environment(0.180),distance to medical institutions(0.178),physical activity time(0.175),man-made landscape in the community environment(0.156),and who can care for you in terms of social support(0.084).The five factors with the highest correlation indexes were,in order:education level(0.282),monthly per capita disposable net household income(0.255),gender(0.206),age(0.183)and physical activity time/time(0.080).At the mental health level,the five highest correlates of pleasantness were:time spent in physical activity/time(0.131),frequency of physical activity/week(0.125),time spent on hobbies in social adaptation(0.100),frequency of chatting with friends in social adaptation(0.099),and place of residence(0.098);the five highest correlates of sedation factors were:frequency of physical activity/week(0.207),time spent in physical activity/time(0.182),social adaptation(time spent on hobbies)(0.175),social adaptation(frequency of chatting with friends)(0.147),and net disposable monthly household income per capita(0.138);the five highest correlated indicator factors affecting depression were,in order:social adaptation of hobbies spent time(0.115),frequency of chatting with friends(0.106),frequency of chatting with children(0.098),frequency of physical activity/week(0.096),and time spent on physical activity/time(0.094).The results of structural equation modeling on the pathways of influence showed that there were multiple layers of chain mediated pathways between social health,physical activity and physical and mental health of older adults.Social health and physical activity can significantly and directly affect the physical health and mental health of older adults,and the chain mediation analysis showed that physical activity was an important mediating variable for social health and personal attributes to affect the physical and mental health of older adults;obesity was a mediating variable for social health and physical activity to affect the prevalence of chronic diseases in older adults;and moodiness was a mediating variable for social health and physical activity to affect the risk of depression in older adults.In addition,in the study of the differences in the effects of social health and physical activity on the physical and mental health of older adults at different ages,there was a significant positive effect of social support on physical activity only in older adults aged 75 years and older(β=0.053);there were significant differences in the effects of personal attributes,social support and physical activity on BMI in older adults at different ages;personal attributes,social adjustment and community environment on chronic diseases among older adults at different ages;there were significant differences in the effects of personal attributes and social adjustment on the emotional nature of older adults at different ages;in addition,there was a significant negative effect of physical activity only on depression among older adults aged 75 years and older(β=-0.049).Using BP neural network model as well as genetic-BP neural network model for risk prediction analysis of physical and mental health of the elderly,genetic-BP neural network model had good predictive efficacy for obesity(AUC=0.993,ACC=0.961),chronic disease(AUC=0.999,ACC=0.801),pleasantness(AUC=0.972,ACC=0.932),sedation sexuality(AUC=0.948,ACC=0.871),and depression(AUC=0.994,ACC=0.893)had good predictive efficacy and outperformed the traditional BP neural network model.Analysis of age heterogeneity in older adults by genetic-BP neural network prediction model revealed that the AUC values of the predicted ROC curves for obesity risk were 0.987 and 0.989 for older adults aged 60-74 and 75 years and older,respectively;0.998 and 0.997 for chronic diseases;0.976 and 0.962 for pleasantness,0.943 and 0.966;depression was 0.987 and 0.993,respectively.In addition,the mechanism of genetic-BP neural network model influencing factors was analyzed by PDP,and it was found that the influence of each associated factor on physical and mental health of the elderly was non-linear as well as complex.Research conclusions(1)Social health and physical activity are important influencing factors of physical and mental health of the elderly.Community environment,social support and physical activity are important influencing factors of obesity in the elderly,and age,gender,education,household income and physical activity are important predictor factors of chronic diseases in the elderly.Social adjustment and physical activity were important influencing factors of moodiness and depression in the elderly,in addition,residence and income were closely associated with moodiness in the elderly.(2)There are multiple mediating pathways for the effects of social health and physical activity on the physical and mental health of older adults.Social health can indirectly affect physical and mental health of older adults through physical activity;social health and physical activity can indirectly affect chronic diseases and depressive symptoms of older adults through obesity and moodiness,respectively;social health and personal attributes indirectly affect depressive symptoms of older adults through physical activity and moodiness,respectively.(3)There are significant differences in the effects and pathways of social health and physical activity on physical and mental health of older adults at different ages.Social support leads to obesity and chronic diseases in older adults(75 years and older);physical and mental health problems are particularly severe in younger older adults(60-74 years)who live in urban areas and have low income and education levels.(4)Social health and physical activity can predict physical and mental health risks of the elderly by genetic-BP neural network model.Social health and physical activity are important predictors of the model,and have a certain predictive value for physical and mental health risks of the elderly.In addition,using the genetic-BP neural network model,social health and physical activity can accurately predict the physical and mental health risks of older adults at different ages,and the mechanism of the influencing factors can also be further clarified by PDP.In conclusion,the national government administration should consider physical activity as an important means of physical and mental health management and promotion for healthy aging from a social health perspective,formulate physical and mental health intervention policies for older adults,implement targeted monitoring and intervention strategies for older adults of different ages,and establish a physical and mental health risk prediction tool for older adults in China through a genetic-BP neural network prediction model to help health management departments and hospitals predict physical and mental health risks in older adults and achieve "gate forward",which has practical significance and value for the realization of a healthy China.