Dynamic Changes Of Individual Human Capital From The Perspective Of Learning By Doing And Job Skill Demand

The slowing economic growth rate in recent years indicates that China’s economy has entered a new normal stage of paying more attention to connotative development under the severe situation in many aspects.At present,economic development pays more attention to structural adjustment and the change of growth mode,and the growth power also shows a diversified trend.In this context,it is urgent to effectively stimulate new drivers of economic growth with the goal of stable and healthy economic development.Therefore,in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,human capital service was proposed as an industry for the first time.Considering that China is fully promoting the transformation of the economy from factor and investment driven to innovation and high-tech driven,human capital,as the core driving force of economic growth,its importance as an emerging industry in the future can’t be underestimated.At the same time,since the reform and opening up,China’s population structure has undergone significant changes.On the one hand,compared with the natural population growth rate of 11.87 ‰ in 1980,it was only 0.34 ‰ in2021,a decrease of 97.13%.On the other hand,the old-age dependency ratio increased from8.0% in the 1980 s to 17.8% in 2019,and the average life expectancy of the population continued to increase.During the 13 th Five-year Plan period,it increased from 76.3 years to 77.3 years.In addition,the demographic dividend continuously released since the reform and opening up has almost disappeared,but the human capital dividend guided by the improvement of population quality and labor quality has begun to take shape.Therefore,with the continuous deepening of fewer children and aging and the continuous improvement of labor quality,if we want to maintain the output efficiency of labor force after ending formal education and entering the labor market,we need to continue to pay attention to the dynamic changes of individual human capital level,especially the market value of human capital.To achieve this,it is very important to determine a reasonable wage(price)for human capital in the factor market.However,it is a complex problem to measure the level of individual human capital and describe the dynamic change curve of wages in their life.Especially if we ignore the differential impact of work experience in the process of work,it will cause errors in the estimation of individual annual income and lifelong income,resulting in the distortion of the measurement of real human capital level.In order to solve the above problems,this paper constructs a dynamic change model of individual human capital and according to the idea of J-F lifetime income method,on the one hand,this paper analyzes the dynamic changes of individual human capital level from the heterogeneous of learning by doing,that is,the accumulation of experience from education level and occupation type.On the other hand,it further goes deep into the complexity of job task and analyzes its differential impact on experience and the improvement of individual human capital level.However,China lacks detailed data on job skill demand.Therefore,by applying the data of Occupational Information Network(O*NET)and referring to the classification method of job skill demand by Autor et al.(2003)and Acemoglu & Autor(2011),by using the proportion of employed personnel of different occupational types in China,we can calculate China’s job skill demand distribution level in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015.Job skill demands fall into five categories,which contains non-routine analytical skills,non-routine interpersonal skills,non-routine manual skills,routine cognitive skills and routine manual skills.By this way to have a clear understanding of the changing trend of job skill demand in China and the new requirements of labor market for the skill level of employees during economic transformation.After using O*NET data to calculate and analyze the job skill demand from the occupational level,continue to use the data of PIAAC and CLDS to calculate and preliminarily analyze the skill demand from the individual level.It also introduces other micro survey databases containing work skills modules at home and abroad.Considering the importance of the change of job skill demand to grasp the development direction of the future labor market and improve the measurement method of human capital,this paper constructs a job skill demand scale with the labor force as the research object,plans to carry out application investigation with the help of the Green Youth Plan Project,to have a certain understanding of the skill differences within the teacher occupation type.In addition,if an individual’s job skill combination does not correspond well to the skill needs of the position,there will be a skill mismatch.The skills of college students are mainly obtained through the explanation of professional courses.For this,we use the graduation survey data of college students provided by My Cos to study the problem of major-job matching and wage premium,which belongs to the expansion analysis of job skill demand.The significance of this paper is mainly reflected in the following four aspects: Firstly,by constructing the dynamic change model of individual human capital,this paper analyzes the effect of education level and occupation type on experience and then on the level of human capital from the heterogeneous of learning by doing.To some extent,it shows that the experience accumulated in work is more practical,and the importance of experience cannot be ignored.Then we should strengthen the construction of human capital investment,encourage on-the-job schooling,pay attention to on-the-job training,and improve the quality of labor force in an all-round way.Secondly,China’s economic development is in an important transformation stage,and the demand for work skills has also changed.In order to deal with the practical problems of the transformation of labor market structure and the fact that human capital dividends have not yet fully played a role,it is necessary to observe the change trend from the demand for workers’ work skills,Thus,it is helpful to examine the transformation of China’s industrial structure and skill demand structure,clarify the new requirements of China’s economic development on workers’ skills in the transition period,and timely adjust the skill supply of labor force to match the market demand.Thirdly,the demand for non-routine analytical skills,non-routine interpersonal skills and routine cognitive skills is regressed as the embodiment of job task.The results show that different from the trend that in CHIP 2002 nonroutine analytical skills play a greater role in improving experience than routine cognitive skills and then more than non-routine interpersonal skills,the role of non-routine analytical skills remains the largest in CHIP 2013,However,the role of non-routine interpersonal skills is greater than that of routine cognitive skills.It shows that with the development of information technology,the sense of cooperation,emotional communication and social ability are becoming more and more important.Fourthly,society,universities and students are very concerned about the employment quality of graduates,and the clear formulation of the issue of major-job matching has put forward new requirements for individuals to strengthen the training of comprehensive abilities,universities to adjust their teaching mode,enterprise and government to strengthen information exchange,which has strong practical significance.This paper consists of eight chapters.Chapter 1 is the introduction part,Chapter 2 is a review of relevant domestic and international research literature for the research content and theoretical foundations for the research content,the remaining chapters contain the research content and main findings as follows.Chapter 3 analyzes individual human capital dynamics from the heterogeneous of learning by doing.By constructing a model of individual human capital dynamics and using CHIP2002 and CHIP2013 data,we analyze the difference between education and occupation type on the rate of experience accumulation and the level of human capital enhancement by adding the interaction term of education or occupation type and experience to the regression model.The results show that individuals with higher educational attainment also have higher earnings.The effect of occupation type on experience and the effect of education on experience are about equal in magnitude,especially for the CHIP2013 results,the coefficient of the former is larger than that of the latter,indicating the importance of occupation-based human capital.Then,the annual income as well as lifetime income of individuals over the life cycle are estimated based on the regression coefficients,and by comparing them with the results calculated by the traditional model that does not consider the effect of education or occupation type on experience accumulation,the change trend helps to have a more intuitive understanding of the dynamic change process of individual human capital.It can be seen from the analysis that the work experience accumulated by different educational backgrounds and occupational types is still the main index to measure the value of talents.The market should give appropriate pricing in combination with the personal characteristics of talents to realize the effective allocation of talent resources.Chapter 4 measures job skill needs from the occupational level and calculates the level of demand distribution for the empirical analysis in Chapter 6.Considering the lack of such data in China,the importance scores of the O*NET project for each skill indicator in completing job tasks are used,and the classification and calculation methods of job skill demand according to Autor et al.(2003)and Acemoglu & Autor(2011)are combined with the data on the percentage of employed persons by occupation type in China and the United States.The distribution levels of job skills demand in China in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 and in the United States from 2000 to 2020 were calculated by standardization.The results show that the distribution levels of nonroutine analytical skills and non-routine interpersonal skills in China are generally on the rise,and although the distribution level of routine cognitive skills is at the highest level,its demand with non-routine manual skills is decreasing.Unlike China,where the highest distribution level of job skills demand is routine cognitive skills,the highest distribution level in the United States is non-routine interpersonal skills,followed by non-routine analytical skills,followed by routine cognitive skills,and the lowest distribution level is for routine manual skills and nonroutine manual skills.Through comparison,we find that the demand for job skills in China has developed differently with the change of labor market structure,with more emphasis on the application of non-routine analytical skills and non-routine interpersonal skills,and the corresponding industrial structure has shifted to the tertiary industry and technology innovation industry.However,there is still a large proportion of workers engaged in jobs that primarily apply routine cognitive skills,and the development of occupations that focus on refinement,specialization and creative output is still slightly lagging behind.Chapter 5 is a further measurement of job skill demand at the individual level by using two representative micro databases,PIAAC and CLDS.The analysis finds that job skill demand varies regularly by occupation type and education level and has an impact on income.Based on the skills module of the existing database,a job skills demand scale for China’s workforce is constructed and the common data processing methods are introduced.Due to capacity constraints,before conducting the study for the entire workforce,we first plan to conduct an application survey through the Green Youth Plan Project,so that we can have a certain understanding of the different skill needs within the same occupation depending on the personal characteristics or work objects.In general,with the development and maturity of human capital theory and skill-biased technological progress theory,researchers tend to analyze the problem more comprehensively at the level of job skills,and the relevant departments need to keep abreast of the changes in the occupational skill structure in China,so it is necessary to strengthen the research and analysis of job skill demand.Chapter 6 analyzes the dynamic changes of individual human capital over the life cycle from the perspective of job skill demand.By correlating the demand data of non-routine analytical skills,non-routine interpersonal skills and routine cognitive skills calculated in Chapter 4 from the occupation level,the dynamic impact of job skill demand on experience accumulation and thus on individual human capital levels can be specifically analyzed.The results of the analysis show that the impact of the three job skill categories on earnings changes from the trend of CHIP2002,where the role of non-routine analytical skills is greater than that of routine cognitive skills and then greater than that of non-routine interpersonal skills,to CHIP2013,where the role of non-routine analytical skills remains the greatest,but the role of non-routine interpersonal skills is greater than that of routine cognitive skills.To some extent,this indicates the importance of communication and the soft skills that leaders develop to motivate their subordinates.With the development of artificial intelligence and the robotics market,the sense of cooperation,emotional communication and social skills when interacting with people still need to be strengthened.At the same time,the instrumental variables approach addresses the endogeneity of omitted variables,such as employee self-selection and employer ranking problem.In addition,considering that there may be changes in key job skills due to job changes or career changes,such as a shift from a strong focus on analytical skills to a greater emphasis on interpersonal skills,we continue to observe the effects of job changes and career changes on experience accumulation as well as wage levels.Finally,the coefficients of the benchmark regressions are used to estimate individual annual earnings as well as lifetime earnings to provide a detailed description of the trends in the level of human capital.Chapter 7 is an analysis of the effect of major-job matching on wage level,which is an extended analysis of job skills.By using the survey data from 2011-2015 of My Cos about undergraduate graduates six months after graduation,the current situation of the major-job matching situation of college graduates is described,and the regression equation is established by building a simple theoretical model to analyze in detail the impact of major-job matching or not on the wage level in terms of the dimensions of education degree,school type,major and city type.The results of the baseline regression for the total sample show that people in majorrelated occupations will have 5.89% more wage premium than those who are not.Second,the sample selection bias and endogeneity problems were corrected for using the Heckman twostep method and IV,and the results showed that both methods increased the wage premium effect.The analysis by specialty shows that if they are engaged in occupations that are not related to their specialty,they will have a greater impact on wages than those that cultivate general skills.The results by city type show that cities with high administrative levels have higher requirements for major-job matching due to their industrial structure and economic development model.Further,the robustness test was conducted using the data from 2011-2014 and self-matched data,and the regression results were similar to the results in 2015 in terms of direction and impact effects,which proved the generalizability of the model construction.Finally,the mechanism of the role of major-job matching is further analyzed on the basis of model estimation,and the analysis using tracking data three years after graduation finds that whether or not to engage in a job related to the major still has a large impact on individuals’ subsequent wage income and job performance.Chapter 8 presents the research conclusions,policy implications,and research outlook.The main conclusions are summarized based on the results of the theoretical model and empirical analysis,and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed from the perspectives of advocating the concept of lifelong learning,interpersonal skills,strengthening the investigation of job skill needs,and enhancing the cultivation of complex talents,as well as future research directions and outlooks in light of the research progress.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects.First,by establishing a dynamic change model of individual human capital,we analyze the differential effects of the three variables on the accumulation of experience and thus on the level of human capital enhancement by including the interaction terms of education,occupation type or job skill intensity demand and experience based on the classical Mincer Model,and then estimate individual annual income and lifetime income through regression coefficients.In estimating annual income,we apply the idea of the J-F lifetime income method.We take into account the fact that the human capital trajectories of individuals one year older and one year younger are different,and we make a positive recurrence of annual income and superimpose it to obtain the lifetime income of individuals.This provides a deeper understanding of the dynamics of individual human capital and provides theoretical and empirical support for talent pricing by estimating the changes in wage earnings due to the interactive effects of education,occupation type,and job skill requirements on experience.Second,by using the O*NET project’s importance score for each skill indicator in completing the job tasks,referring to Autor et al.(2003)and Acemoglu & Autor(2011)for the job skill demand classification method,combined with the percentage of employed persons by occupational medium category published in the population census year of China.Therefore,the five levels of non-routine analytical skills,non-routine interpersonal skills,non-routine manual skills,routine cognitive skills and routine manual skills are used to depict the trend of the demand for job skills in China.In this way,we can have a more intuitive feeling of the new requirements of China’s labor market in terms of job skills during economic transformation.In addition,based on the skills module of the existing database,a job skills demand scale for China’s labor force is constructed.Before conducting the survey for the entire workforce,we plan to conduct an application survey with the help of the Green Youth Plan Project,to gain a deeper understanding of the differentiated skill needs within the same occupation.Third,the study examines the impact of major-job matching on post-graduation wages,and conducts a mechanism analysis using follow-up data three years after graduation to further show that whether or not one works in a job related to one’s major still has a significant impact on one’s wages and performance in the workplace.This study not only enriches the field by shifting the employment match from an education-job match to a major-job match perspective.It also demonstrates the importance of matching workers’ skill sets to the skills required for the job.In addition,because the data contain variables for basic job competencies and core knowledge levels,they can be used as proxies for individual competencies,and to a certain extent,they can explain the problem of regression bias due to differences in competencies.The shortcomings of this paper include three aspects.First,since CHIP2018 data are not yet available,only the years of CHIP2002 and CHIP2013 are used to observe the different effects of educational attainment,occupation type,and job skill demand on the trend of individual human capital changes.If the latest research data can be added,the research group in that year is affected by technological progress and artificial intelligence industry to a greater extent,and its coefficient better reflects the direction of structural changes in the labor market,there will be more findings in terms of conclusions and policy implications.Second,there is a lack of statistical data on occupational categories and occupational subcategories in China,as well as a lack of microscopic research data on job task and job skill requirements at the occupational or individual level.Due to the limitation of data,the study on the measurement and trend of job skill demand in China is not detailed enough,and there is still much room for improvement in the future.Most directly,after the data of the seventh population census are fully released,using the proportion of employees at the occupational level to calculate the distribution level of job skill demand in 2020 will make the change trend of China’s job skill structure more obvious.Third,for the expression of skills,non-routine analytical skills and non-routine interpersonal skills should not be considered as high-level skills,while manual skills or cognitive skills should be considered as low-level skills,and there should be a flexible distinction between high and low skills for the job situation,and various skills should function in a coordinated manner in the workplace.Therefore,if future data allow,we can construct multidimensional competency indicators to accurately measure individual skill levels.In addition,if data on workers’ own skill levels are available against the skill sets required for their occupations,more accurate skill mismatch indicators can be developed to provide a more detailed analysis of the mechanisms at play in wage earnings or job promotion.