Research On Analysis And Modeling Of Individual And Group Radicalization From The Perspective Of Anti-terrorism

A multidisciplinary study of the process of terrorism radicalization would shed light on the mechanism of how individual and group extremist ideologies and acts of violence are generated,which is of enormous academic and practical value.The evolutionary pattern of radicalization is currently insufficiently researched from the theoretical perspective and limited in methodological diversity,contributing little to the scientific formulation of de-radicalization strategies.Based on the social computing theory and methods and the integrated multidisciplinary knowledge in the fields of opinion dynamics and multi-agent simulation,this thesis systematically investigates the dynamic evolution mechanism of individual and group radicalization by modeling the evolution of extremist thoughts,modeling the decision-making of extremist behaviors,and analyzing the factors influencing the evolution of radicalization using computational methods so as to solve the practical problem of radicalization from the perspective of preventive counter-terrorism and provide a theoretical and scientific foundation for the formulation of de-radicalization strategies by public security organs.The following are the research outline and innovations:(1)A framework for modeling the evolution of individual and group radicalization based on social computing and a three-dimensional dual-track theoretical analysis model of individual radicalization evolution are created,which might be effectively used in the modeling of the evolution of radicalization and thorough analysis of the radicalization evolution mechanism.To address the issues of singularity in research methodology and a lack of theoretical research on the evolution of radicalization,social computing is used as the theoretical and methodological foundation in building the framework for modeling the evolution of radicalization of individuals and groups.The framework is comprised of three components:theoretical research foundation,artificial social modeling,and computational experimental application,which clarified the fundamental ideas and model elements used in the modeling of radicalization evolution and created a research closed-loop from the theories of radicalization evolution to simulation models and then to the development of de-radicalization tactics.The main mechanisms for the transformation of individual thought and behavioral radicalization are put forth with an emphasis on the transformation of radicalization.A three-dimensional dualtrack theory analysis model of individual radicalization is created by fusing the micro-,meso-,and macro-dimensions of the evolutionary tracks of thought and behavior radicalization.Case study findings demonstrate that the model has accomplished a thorough and complete analysis of the radicalization process.(2)To address the challenge of simulating the spread of extremist ideas during the evolution of thought radicalization,a dual-threshold opinion dynamics model for the evolution of group thought radicalization is suggested.A dual-threshold opinion dynamics model of group thought radicalization evolution is proposed to address the problem that existing opinion dynamics models lacked the representation of extremist ideas interaction features.The model represents the spectrum of opinion interactions among people as a variable set of social relationships and has a dualthreshold structure that included social relationship thresholds and trust thresholds.The problem of modeling the spread of extremist ideas that integrates the traits of dual secrecy and social relationship-dependent propagation is simultaneously solved by using variables such as individual viewpoint persistence,inter-individual social relations,and social environment resources.The outcomes of simulation studies carry out in artificially created networks and actual networks demonstrate that the model is capable of reflecting the spread of extremist ideologies and accurately simulating the evolution of thought radicalization.(3)An epidemic compartmental model for the evolution of group extremist thoughts based on the cooperative mechanism of overlapping infections of infectious diseases is proposed,which can be effectively used in modeling the evolution of group extremist thoughts under the condition of multiple extremist ideologies spread by terrorist organizations.For the problem of deficiency in methods of modeling the evolution of group extremist thoughts under the complex extremist thought propagation strategies of terrorist organizations,an epidemic compartmental model for the evolution of group extremist thoughts based on the cooperative mechanism of overlapping infections of the epidemic is proposed.The model contains five compartments,and the modeling of the transition rate between subgroups caused by cross-interactions is solved by adding an interaction parameter to model the evolution of extremist ideas of groups influenced by the strategies of terrorist organizations.Numerical simulation results validate the validity of the model,and the results of the de-radicalization strategy test show that the model effectively enhance the scientificity of de-radicalization strategy formulation.(4)The issue of modeling the typical mechanism of decision-making of extreme behavior of terrorist organizations is resolved by creating a decision model of extremely violent attack behavior of terrorist organizations based on the principle of least action.A decision-making model of extreme violent attack behavior of terrorist organizations based on the principle of least action is suggested to address the issue of the absence of a common mechanism modeling of behavioral decision-making of terrorist organizations.The model reveals the decision characteristics of extreme violent attack behavior of terrorist organizations through data analysis,constructs a virtual mechanics system to describe the decision process of terrorist organization attacks and solves the problem of modeling the common mechanism of decision-making of extreme behavior of terrorist organizations by employing the principle of least action.The experimental findings based on GTD data demonstrate a high efficacy of the model in simulating terrorist groups’ decision-making processes for highly violent attack behavior.(5)To address the issue of computational modeling of individual radicalization integration,a multi-agent modeling-based strategy to examine the variables affecting the evolution of individual extremes is suggested.A multi-agent modeling-based approach for analyzing the impact factors of radicalization evolution is suggested to address the issue of the lack of quantitative research on the evolutionary process of individual radicalization.From the standpoint of integrated computational modeling,this method resolves the issue of modeling complicated influencing factors in the development of individual radicalization in numerous dimensions,topics,and states.In particular,the three-dimensional dual-track theoretical analysis model is used to extract the main influencing factors,and a multi-agent modeling approach is used to finely model the evolution of individual radicalization.This modeling approach includes the civilian state calculation and state transformation threshold model,as well as the subject influence determination model.Experimental findings in the simulation environment created on the basis of questionnaire data demonstrate that the method can simulate the radicalization evolution process in three dimensions,which completes and supplements the simulation-based individual radicalization evolution analysis method.