| In recent years,supply chain disruption risk events caused by internal and external imbalance of supply chain such as public emergencies occur frequently,bringing huge losses to nodal enterprises,supply chain and society.The COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 has affected the supply conditions of parts,ingredients and products for most companies to varying degrees.From January Since January 2020,more than 90% of Fortune 1000 companies have experienced supply chain disruptions.The chip shortage has been particularly noticeable since 2020,with manufacturers from cars to smartphones to game consoles all over the world complaining that we have suffered one of the worst chip shortages in years.The 2021 Seni cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal,causing a prolonged disruption to the global shipping supply chain and forcing several companies to suspend production.At the end of 2022,we still remember the massive shortage of emergency medicines during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.The lessons of real accidents make enterprise managers and scholars begin to pay attention to supply chain disruption risk management and countermeasures.In this thesis,the fundamental starting point is to improve the theoretical level and practical management ability of enterprise supply chain disruption risk management,and the main research object is supply chain disruption risk.Supply chain public emergencies have brought painful lessons to supply chain members and even the whole economic society.The business and academic circles are trying to find ways to make the increasingly complex supply chain system maintain stable and reliable operation state in the uncertain environment and minimize the loss caused by sudden change events.However,no matter how hard human beings try to prevent the risk of supply chain mutation,the occurrence of public emergencies such as natural disasters,operational accidents and man-made events is inevitable.Therefore,it is of great importance to reduce the losses brought by public emergencies to the supply chain network,seize the opportunities brought by public emergencies to the supply chain system,adopt reasonable emergency management strategies,and make the supply chain recover from the interrupted state or near interrupted state as soon as possible after suffering from public emergencies.It can be seen that after an interruption occurs,how to respond quickly,reduce the loss caused by the interruption event,and quickly recover to a stable state after the interruption event is a key issue that needs to be solved by supply chain management.Nowadays,the supply chain system is increasingly complex,and the possibility of external disturbance increases significantly,which makes the probability of interruption events with low probability and high hazard characteristics of supply chain become greater and greater.The domestic business community is still underestimating the seriousness of this problem,coupled with the lack of necessary relevant theoretical support,most supply chain enterprises have not yet established a corresponding response system.How to build a stable and effective early warning method? When is the supply chain system likely to face the threat of disruption? How much damage will the system face in case of supply chain disruption? How to predict effectively to prepare coping strategies in advance? In the process of emergency management,how to quickly and effectively find coping strategies in the face of different abrupt situations? All these problems need to be solved urgently.The research objectives of this thesis include: to provide theoretical support for the early warning and prevention of supply chain disruption under the background of public emergencies;Based on the characteristics of supply side mutation,the combination and planning of narrow strategy of dynamic coordination are studied.Based on the characteristics of the complex situation of supply and demand abrupt changes,this thesis focuses on studying how to adjust the broad strategy indicators in order to achieve the match between production and market demand again,avoid the occurrence of interruptions,and achieve the purpose of the lowest cost,so as to provide scientific guidance for the production operation,inventory management and demand forecast of enterprises.Firstly,this thesis constructs a quantitative model for measuring supply chain disruption level and a quantitative model for supply chain disruption impact based on intelligent algorithm,which serves as the basis for the establishment of enterprise supply chain disruption warning and plan under the background of public emergency events.Secondly,considering the supply side risk coping problems of supply chain disruption and the integrated decision-making mode of emergency management,the selection model of supply side risk coping scheme under different decision-making situations is constructed,and the validity of the model is verified by example analysis.Then,because demand sudden change is often manifested as market demand rate sudden change,demand sudden change may occur at any time and with any intensity in the actual production and operation process.In this thesis,a more flexible critical supply chain disruption model is established based on the complex demand abrupt situation.Finally,considering that what kind of production plan and replenishment plan should be formulated by the supply side enterprise is the key issue in the process of strategic research.In order to better solve this problem,this thesis further constructs a more flexible and complex critical supply chain disruption model under the condition that both the supply side and the demand side have sudden changes,so as to consider possible sudden changes in the production practice as much as possible.Form and perfect emergency management strategy set.The research results of this thesis can help supply side enterprises develop emergency management strategies to cope with sudden supply and demand events,reduce the loss caused by sudden change,avoid supply chain disruption as much as possible and achieve the purpose of the lowest cost.Combined with the research and existing literature,some suggestions on policy and corporate communication are given at the end of the thesis.The specific research work and achievements of this thesis mainly include:1.Research on comprehensive evaluation of supply chain disruption risk measurement and quantitative prediction of disruption impact under the background of public emergencies.(1)According to the source of supply chain disruption risk,this thesis introduces the classification,identification,tools and methods of supply chain disruption risk.(2)A supply chain disruption risk assessment model is established,and a comprehensive measure of supply chain disruption risk level under the background of public emergencies is calculated by using the measurement evaluation theory.(3)Apply intelligent algorithm to quantitative prediction of supply chain disruption loss.The combined optimization of the grey prediction model and the BP neural network model can control the internal errors of the neural network prediction model.By selecting the optimal prediction model with high precision and high fitting degree from the improved grey prediction model,the optimal dimension is determined,which provides a scientific basis for determining the number of neurons in the input layer of the neural network model.The case analysis proves that the forecast results can provide scientific guidance for production,inventory management and demand forecast of supply chain enterprises.2.Study the emergency management strategy under the multi-context condition of abrupt supply changes from the perspective of supply chain disruption.(1)Three emergency management strategies are comprehensively considered: redundant capacity strategy,inventory strategy and alternative manufacturer production strategy.The three interrupt risk emergency management strategies constitute the supply side interrupt risk response plan.(2)Considering the differences in decision-making methods of supply chain disruption risk management,a hierarchical decision-making model and a comprehensive analysis decision-making model are established respectively.(3)Introduce the supply chain background of C enterprise,and construct the solution of supply end interruption risk.The risk factors of supply chain interruption are determined,and the probability of supply chain interruption is predicted through the analysis of supply chain interruption risk.Considering various emergency management strategies of interruption risk that enterprises may adopt in risk management,a comprehensive evaluation model of supply interruption risk is constructed,and the probability of supply interruption and the possible impact of interruption are estimated through the analysis of examples.Further considering the decision-making mode of supply chain disruption risk management,the model of supply chain disruption risk response scheme selection is established.The model of interrupt risk response scheme selection in the example is solved.It is proved that the method proposed in this thesis is operable and can solve the problem of coping with supply chain disruption risk.3.Study the comprehensive emergency management strategy under multi-context conditions from sudden market demand to external replenishment from the perspective of supply chain disruption.(1)Consider a critical supply chain interruption system composed of a supply side(manufacturer or distributor)and a demand side(the market faced by retailers)as the research object,consider the lowest cost,one-time production and one-time replenishment principles,assume the critical breakpoint is the optimal solution to facilitate the strategic research,and build a critical supply chain interruption model.At the beginning of the cycle,the supply side makes the actual productivity according to the original productivity and the demand rate after the sudden change,and adjusts the production stock rate and external replenishment strategy to prevent the interruption of the supply chain within the cycle.(2)In the case of sudden change in demand within a research period,according to the different occurrence time and intensity of sudden change,the thesis discusses how the supply side should adjust the productivity after sudden change in demand,whether external replenishment should be adopted or not,and if external replenishment is needed,how to select the replenishment time and quantity to meet sudden demand.Avoid supply chain disruption.(3)The influence of demand sudden change parameters on supply chain disruption emergency management strategy is analyzed by example simulation.4.Study the emergency management strategy from the perspective of supply chain disruption while considering supply and demand double mutation and multiple situations.(1)Based on the deepening of the above research,the production stockpiling time should be established when the production stockpiling rate is determined,so as to avoid supply chain disruption as far as possible within the cycle.Considering the sudden change of both the supply side and the demand side,it is subdivided into different situations according to the different sudden change time and intensity.In different situations,the optimal emergency management strategy adopted by the supply side enterprises is studied,including the adjustment strategy of production stockup time,and the replenishment strategy that determines the replenishment times,replenishment time and replenishment quantity.(2)The influence of the parameters related to supply and demand abrupt changes on the emergency management strategy of supply chain disruption is analyzed by example simulation.The theoretical contribution and innovation point of this thesis lies in the fact that there are many researches on supply chain risk management in existing literatures,but the existing researches mostly consider the interrupt emergency management strategy under a single constant situation,a single interrupt period and a single emergency strategy.In this thesis,various basic theoretical models of supply chain disruption emergency management under the impact of public emergencies were constructed from three dimensions,namely,pre-event,in-event and post-event.The models in this thesis considered complex situations,the impact of variable interrupt time,the positive and negative effects of sudden change intensity of supply and demand,and the difference of sudden change time points,providing a framework and a new perspective for such research in the future.First,an early warning method of supply chain disruption of enterprises under the background of public emergencies is constructed.Based on two questions: under what circumstances supply chain disruption will occur and what impact it may bring after it occurs,a supply chain disruption measurement evaluation theory based on the background of public emergencies is formed.It provides a research perspective for the practice and theoretical research of supply chain disruption emergency management under the background of public emergency events.Based on the characteristics of supply chain disruption cases induced by public emergency events,the optimal dimension of the improved grey prediction model is used to determine the number of neurons in the input layer of BP neural network,which not only breaks through the restriction of the original data series of the traditional grey model,It also embodies the good fitting characteristic of neural network,enhances the stability and reliability of prediction,and solves the quantitative prediction problem of supply chain interruption.Second,construct the supply interruption emergency management strategy selection model.In the process of supply side abrupt change study,a variety of emergency strategies of disruption risk are adopted to implement dynamic adjustment in different situations to achieve the purpose of supply and demand balance,profit maximization and cost minimization.In the selection of supply chain disruption risk response scheme,the influence of disruption risk management decision mode on supply chain disruption risk management is considered,and the comprehensive analysis decision model and hierarchical decision model are established respectively for the choice of disruption risk response scheme.The hierarchical and hierarchical model specifically considers that the enterprise in different stages of risk management will take different interrupt risk emergency management strategies.At the same time,considering the impact of risk management decision-making mode on the risk response plan of supply chain disruption,the research methods of supply chain disruption emergency management are enriched and improved,which provides the direction and reference for further research.Thirdly,a critical supply chain disruption model based on demand abrupt change is constructed in different situations.In the study on demand side sudden change,in order to avoid supply chain disruption,enterprises at supply chain nodes quickly develop emergency management strategies to avoid disruption as far as possible in view of different situations,which provides a new idea to improve the overall stability and reliability of the supply chain after the occurrence of demand side sudden change.Fourthly,a critical supply chain disruption model with double sudden changes is constructed in complex situations.Existing research results on supply chain disruption emergency management strategies mainly focus on single-scenario strategy construction,pricing and analysis of influencing factors.There are few studies on finding a complete set of emergency management strategies from supply chain disruption systems,and most of the only studies are analysis and discussion on one or two specific abrupt situations.In this thesis,the supply chain emergency management system under double sudden changes in supply and demand is taken as the research object,and a complex situation is constructed from the two dimensions of sudden changes in time and sudden changes in intensity.Only the research part of sudden changes in supply and demand emergency management strategy is carried out.Under the premise of not including the parameter impact analysis,16 kinds of critical supply chain disruption systems are considered,and corresponding models are constructed respectively and corresponding emergency management strategies are given.Therefore,a complete scheme of supply chain disruption emergency management strategy under different supply and demand abrupt situations is obtained.In order to further optimize the emergency management model of supply chain disruption,this thesis also introduced and named three new metrics: cycle loss intensity,production loss intensity and sudden loss intensity.It is found that the introduction of new indicators not only has a strong practical guiding significance for supply chain enterprise management,but also brings new research ideas for supply chain interruption management methods. |
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