| Along with the global distribution of transnational corporations and the continuous refinement of industrial division of labor,the division of labor mode of global value chains dominates the world economic and trade pattern,and provides a strong impetus for promoting domestic economic growth and industrial upgrading.However,in recent years,the development of global value chains has shown a slowdown,or even retrogression.In addition,the growing inequality in GVC position index inherent in the development of global value chains also intensifies the concerns of global economies on the relative gains of value chain trade,raw distribution and national security.How to enhance the resilience of global value chains and alleviate the inequality in GVC position index has become an urgent problem to be solved.Vertical specialization forms the basis of the global value chains division,which is bound to make it more dependent on stable international political environment and international relations.The breakdown of local value chains caused by the deterioration of political relations between countries,whether it is the interruption of upstream supply or the contraction of downstream demand,will cause the shock of the whole value chains.In recent years,the international political and economic situation,such as the great power strategy represented by China and the United States and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,has provided a relatively clear realistic basis for the correlation between the two.Meanwhile,The Global Value Chain Development Report 2021: Beyond Production points out that geopolitical shocks have become a major concern for the future of global value chains,which will not only fall victim to geopolitical risks,but also contribute to them.The development of international trade has shifted from the logic of efficiency to the logic of politics.In this context,an in-depth study of the impact of bilateral political relations on global value chain has important theoretical and practical significance for understanding the future evolution of the new pattern of international trade based on GVCs under the form of Sino-US strategic competition,global populism and trade conservatism,judging the turn of each country’s diplomatic strategy and enhancing the resilience of global value chains.Based on the UN General Assembly voting data and the world input-output data,this paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of bilateral political relations and the development of global value chains under the domination of major powers on the basis of combing and summarizing the existing relevant literature.Secondly,on the basis of theories of politics and economics that politics affects economy,the internal mechanism of bilateral political relations affecting value added exports between countries,inequality of global value chain position index and cooperation degree of global value chain is further explored.Furthermore,based on existing studies,the influence and heterogeneity of bilateral political relations on GVCs are empirically explored from three aspects: export of value added between countries,inequality of global value chain position index and GVCs cooperation degree.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this paper,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper finds that the ideal point distance index estimated by the UN General Assembly voting data has strong referential and applicability to represent the bilateral political relations between countries.Moreover,the current bilateral political pattern dominated by the relationship between great powers presents the characteristics of disharmony and instability.Specifically,after the2008 financial crisis,the deterioration of bilateral political relations between countries has become increasingly prominent along with the intensifying disputes over the South China Sea,the East China Sea and historical issues left over.The current Russia-Ukraine war,strategic competition among great powers,the rise of populist movements and other major global events have intensified the volatility of bilateral political relations.Secondly,the evolution and development of global value chain,which mainly includes value-added exports,GVC position index and cooperation in global value chain,presents the following characteristics:(1)On the whole,both in terms of scale and proportion,the traditional gross trade accounting method exaggerates the scale of global export.In addition,although the global value-added exports show an expanding trend,the external impact on the inter-country value added trade is huge,and the current development of value-added trade is in a bottleneck period.From the perspective of sub-sector structure,the structure of global value-added exports is dominated by the export of the manufacturing sector,but the proportion of the export of the primary industry and the service industry is increasing.From the perspective of flow channels of value-added exports,global value-added exports are mainly direct exports of final goods and intermediate goods,and show obvious country heterogeneity.(2)At present,the inequality of GVC position index among global economies has become increasingly prominent.Moreover,this phenomenon of inequality exists significantly in the whole,manufacturing and service industries,among which the inequality in the manufacturing industry is more prominent.In addition,this paper finds that technology is the main cause of the inequality of manufacturing global value chain position index,and in recent years,capital has gradually replaced technology as the main source of the inequality of GVC position index in service industries.(3)On the whole,the current global value chain cooperation between countries is mainly driven by the demand side,and its cooperation process faces downward pressure.From the perspective of sector category,the cooperation between countries is mainly in the manufacturing sector,and the cooperation degree between countries in the primary sector is on the rise in recent years,and gradually higher than that in the service sector.From the perspective of country structure,GVCs cooperation is mainly between OECD country pairs,but the degree of GVCs cooperation between non-OECD country pairs is growing faster.In terms of cooperation path selection,OECD members are more inclined to cooperate with countries within the region in the production of intermediate goods(upstream stages),while non-OECD members are more inclined to cooperate with non-OECD countries in the production of final goods(downstream stages).Thirdly,the empirical test of the effect of bilateral political relations on inter-country value-added exports shows that the improvement of bilateral political relations can significantly increase inter-country value-added exports.The results remain robust after taking into account the endogenous problem,export structure of value-added exports,index substitution,model estimation methods,and dimension summing.What’s more,the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the value-added exports of countries with weak economic power,countries with institutional advantages,industries with comparative advantages and downstream industries of the value chain are more sensitive to the changes of bilateral political relations.In addition,the theoretical hypothesis and mechanism test results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations can improve the value-added exports between countries by reducing the "cost effect" and enhancing the "industry linkage effect".This study deeply reveals the correlation between political factors and global economic development,and provides a powerful reference for promoting the current global economic recovery and maintaining the sustainable development of global value chains.Fourthly,the empirical test of the influence of bilateral political relations on the inequality of GVC position index finds that the improvement of bilateral political relations significantly promotes the convergence of the GVC position index between the two countries.The results remain robust after considering endogeneity,index substitution,model estimation method,sample selection bias and hysteresis effect.The heterogeneity analysis finds that the improvement of bilateral political relations significantly reduces the gap of the GVC position index between developed economies,developed economies and developing economies,and economies with large differences in the level of institutional environment.And the improvement of bilateral political relations is difficult to reduce the inequality of GVC position index caused by high-tech industries and the monopoly power generated by factor endowment structure.Moreover,the theoretical hypothesis and mechanism test results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations will promote the convergence of GVC position index by strengthening the intra-industry trade of the two countries,especially the vertical intra-industry trade.In addition,compared with the countries with the low position index in the value chain,the change of bilateral political relations has a greater impact on the countries with high position index.Fifthly,the empirical test of the influence of bilateral political relations on the degree of GVCs cooperation between countries shows that the improvement of bilateral political relations significantly improves the degree of GVCs cooperation between countries.After considering endogeneity,index reconstruction,sample replacement and other factors,the results are still robust.The heterogeneity analysis finds that the improvement of bilateral political relations significantly promotes the GVCs cooperation between developed countries and developing countries,and has a greater impact on the degree of GVCs cooperation between developing countries.However,the deterioration of bilateral political relations significantly inhibits the GVCs cooperation degree of trading partners in the primary product industry and the service industry,and has a greater impact on the GVCs cooperation degree of the service industry.In addition,friendly bilateral political relations have significantly facilitated GVCs cooperation with countries in the same region and with complementary sectoral structures.What’s more,the theoretical hypothesis and mechanism test results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations improves the degree of global value chain cooperation between countries through two channels of promoting FTA signing and investment.This research has certain theoretical and practical significance.In terms of theoretical significance,based on the theories of politics and economics that politics influences economy,and from the perspective of global value chain,this paper expands the current research paradigm in the field of international political economy by deeply analyzing the internal mechanism of bilateral political relations dominated by major powers affecting inter-country value-added exports,the gap of global value chain position index and the degree of cooperation in global value chain.It provides useful reference for the study of international trade,international political economy,international relations and other fields.In terms of practical significance,on the one hand,this study provides empirical evidence and reference for understanding the political logic behind the formation and evolution of the new international trade pattern based on global value chain under the current Russia-Ukraine conflict,Sino-US strategic competition,global populism and trade conservatism,as well as for how a country builds diplomatic partnership.On the other hand,it provides the direction for the future development of global value chains for developing countries or latecomer countries.In addition,the paper provides a way for China to break through the economic blockade of the developed countries led by the United States and realize the economic development. |
PDF Full Text Request