Research On The Impact Of The Changes In Sino-indian Political Relations On Bilateral Trade

Recently,with the accelerating pace of economic globalization,political and economic factors in relations between major powers are closely linked.Political relations between countries and their influence on bilateral trade have increasingly become a hot issue of concern to scholars.Considering factors such as major countries,hot spots,and surrounding environmental security,this paper chooses China-India relations as the research object.India and Russia are the two major powers among China’s neighbors,but compared with the importance China attaches to Russia,Chinese attitude towards India is relatively minor.The political relations and bilateral trade scale between China and India also lag behind the relevant situation between China and Russia.In the 1950 s,newly independent China and India established friendly relations and went through a historical period of close cooperation.However,under the influence of multiple factors at home and abroad,the development of political relations between the two countries has always been in a certain degree of uncertainty.At the same time,although the scale of bilateral trade has grown in recent years,it is not commensurate with the economic and population size of the two sides and has not realized its due potential.When analyzing the influencing factors of Sino-Indian bilateral trade,many studies attributed one of the problems to the lack of political mutual trust between China and India,and believed that the political relationship between China and India affected the trade exchanges,but there was no detailed fact test and analysis.Therefore,we need to verify and conduct in-depth research on this issue,which has relatively important significance in both academic and practical aspects.This paper reviews the development course of Sino-Indian political relations and trade relations,and measures the level of trade between the two countries through indexes such as trade dependence,trade integration,trade affinity,trade difference and trade coupling.In addition,this article takes the impact of Sino-Indian bilateral political relations on Sino-Indian trade as the research object,using data on Sino-Indian relations provided by the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University,using the comprehensive analysis of the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,especially the rate of using correlation analysis and the improved grey correlation analysis method,discusses the political relations between the two countries influence degree and the influence of trade in both ways.The conclusion of this paper is that the influence of Sino-Indian political relations on trade relations is positive,with lag effect,and the degree of influence is different in different periods.From 1991 to 2019,the impact of trade affinity and proximity between China and India on bilateral trade is higher than that of political relations between China and India,and the impact of political relations between China and Pakistan on trade between China and India is greater than that of political relations between China and the United States.The influence of trade closeness on bilateral trade is higher than that of political relations between China and India.The two countries should properly handle bilateral political relations,face up to the reality and fully unleash the potential of bilateral trade and development cooperation through joint efforts at multiple levels.