| Marriage and fertility are important components of life course,which are not only personal issues but also generate far-reaching effects on economic development and social security.In recent years,the marriage situation in China has been characterized by a decreasing marriage rate,increasing age of first marriage,and decreasing duration of marriage.The fertility situation also shows the characteristics of decreasing number of women of childbearing age,delaying age of first childbearing,decreasing number of births and declining birth rate.At the same time,since the WTO accession at the beginning of the 21 st century,China’s export trade has experienced rapid development.Firstly,the export volume has surged.In 2009,China has become the largest exporter in the world.Secondly,the technological content of export has improved steadily and the export structure has been continuously optimized.In 2020,the exports share of manufactured goods accounted for more than 95%,and exports share of capital and technology-intensive products accounted for more than 50%.Finally,the service industry as well as the service elements in the manufacturing industry grow fast,and the servitization level of manufacturing exports deepens.In 2020,the contribution of the tertiary industry to GDP increment reaches 50%,and the servitization level of manufacturing inputs and output also continues to improve,and the connection between manufacturing and service industries becomes closer.The prosperity of trade has promoted sustained and rapid economic development in China,which effectively enhances the economic condition of domestic residents,and brings about cultural exchange and integration,promoting changes in social rules and profoundly affecting individual marriage and childbearing behaviors(Braga,2018;Kis-Katos et al.,2018;Sengupta,2019).The low birth rate brought by late marriage and late childbearing and infertility has rise the labor costs and accelerated the disappearance of demographic dividends,which will lead to sluggish economic growth and reduced social stability for a long time.Due to the close connection between marriage and childbearing behaviors of individual and economic development,social stability and national welfare,it is necessary to understand the relationship between trade and individual marriage and childbearing behaviors.This paper assesses the impact of export trade liberalization on the marriage and childbearing behavior of Chinese residents,as well as the mechanism,which helps to understand the important impact of economic issues on social changes and individual choices,and also has significant practical implications for the formulation of trade liberalization strategies,long-term population development strategies,and marriage and childbearing policies.Based on Becker(1973),Becker(1974),Becker(1960),and Becker and Lewis(1973),this paper first theoretically analyzes the economic rationale of marriage and fertility behavior.The formation of marriage is the decision of utility maximization under constraints.Marriage occur if,and only if,gains from marriage is larger when compared to remaining single for one man and one woman,that is both of them are made better off.The gains from marriage is shown to be related to the complementarity,which is mainly reflected in the benefits of division of labor brought by the traditional division model of men dominate the outside and women dominate the inside.The costs of marriage include dating and bride price expenses,marriage maintaining expense,legal fees and the cost of searching for a mate.The gain from marriage has to be balanced against the costs to determine whether marriage is worthwhile.In Becker’s contention,children are “normal”,then,the decision of childbearing is the consideration of utility maximization subjected to the budget constraints.The budget constraint is influenced primarily by household income and the "price" of children(the cost of raising a child),while the utility is derived from both the quality and quantity of children.The increase in household income,on one hand,has an income effect,which promotes the quantity of children consumed,leading to an increase in fertility rate,and on the other hand,it enhances preference for the quality of children,leading to a decrease in the quantity of children consumed.The increase of income usually implies the increase of the cost of raising children,that is,the "price" of children grows as well,which in turn reduce the quantity of children consumed.Therefore,the decision of childbearing is the comprehensive consideration of the above factors.After clarifying the economic theoretical basis for individuals to make marriage and childbearing decisions,we explored how export trade would affect individual marriage and childbearing decisions.This paper holds that export trade will affect the costs and gains of marriage,family income and the price of children through the labor market output effect and the conception of marriage and fertility,and then affect the marital and childbearing behaviors of individuals.Specifically,the expansion of export scale reduces the marriage and fertility behaviors by promoting the growth of employment and income and changing the conception of marriage and fertility.The optimization of export technology structure reduces the marriage and fertility behaviors by improving the education level.The servitization of export reduces the marriage and fertility behaviors by promoting employment and income growth.Then,using data from Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP)and IPUMS,the latter is a part of the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation at the University of Minnesota,this study systematically examine the effects of various dimensions of export trade liberalization,including the expansion of export scale,the optimization of export technology structure and the servitization of export,on individuals’ marriage and childbearing behaviors.First,we investigate the impact of the scale expansion of export on individual marital and fertility performance.Using the exogenous import demand from foreign countries to characterize the export expansion of Chinese cities,we examined the impact of the growing export scale on individual marital and fertility behavior.The empirical results show that the scale expansion of export significantly reduces the probability of getting married and childbearing.Considering the heterogeneity among individuals and among regions,we do extensive sub-sample tests,and the results show that the negative impact of growing export scale on marriage and fertility is much more pronounced for individuals in the economically developed,service booming,and educationally advanced eastern regions,and is more significant for individuals with lower income and education,female,and the younger generation born in the 1980 s and 1990 s.We further explore the channels through which the growth of export opportunities affects the formation of marriage and childbearing.The results show that,(1)the growth of export scale raises labor market output of individuals,especially for female labors.The rapid development of export trade provides a large number of jobs,which also gives female labors the opportunity to participate in market activities,and earn wages,thus significantly improves the economic and social status of female labors.On the one hand,the growth of employment and income of women reduces the net benefits of marriage,thus decreasing the marital behaviors.On the other hand,the improvement of women’s income may increase the cost of childbearing and amplify the penalty effect of motherhood,which in turn leads to a decline in fertility.(2)Increasing export scale promotes changes in individual perceptions of marriage and childbearing.Export expansion not only reshapes individuals’ perceptions of the traditional gender division of labor,which is men dominate the outside and women dominate the inside,making individuals focus more on the self-realization and thus the demand for marriage decreases,but also makes the concept of freedom of childbearing more popular,and traditional stereotypes such as inheriting generations and raising children to prevent old age have been gradually abandoned,resulting in a decline in fertility.Second,we examine the impact of the upgrading of export technology structure on marital and fertility behavior.Using the export sophistication to measure the technology structure,we examine the impact of export technology structure optimization on individuals’ marital and fertility behavior based on CHIP and IPUMS,respectively.The results indicate that the evolution of export sophistication has a negative impact on individuals’ marital and fertility behaviors,resulting in decrease of probabilities of getting married and childbearing.Specifically,this negative effect is more pronounced for individuals in the east and central regions with developed economy,service and education,and with higher foreign investment participation,and for mature individuals with higher income and education level,urban and female individuals.Exploring the influence mechanism,we find that the evolution of export sophistication promote human capital investment and improve individuals’ education level,which extends the length of education and delay the time of getting married and childbearing on one hand,and promotes the transformation of the concept of marriage and fertility and the improvement of potential economic power on the other hand.Finally,we explore the impact of the servitization of manufacturing export on marital and fertility behavior.Using the servitization from the perspective of output to measure the process of servitization of manufacturing export,we examine the impact of deepening of servitization on individuals’ marital and fertility performance based on CHIP and IPUMS.It is found that the servitization of manufacturing export of Chinese cities may significantly decrease the probability of getting married and childbearing.Results of heterogeneity analysis point out that the negative effect is much more obvious for the individuals in the economically developed,service booming,educationally advanced and well regulated eastern provinces and cities,and more significant for individuals with lower income and education,female,and the younger generation born in the 1980 s and 1990 s.Further,we explore the channels through which export servitization leads to a decline in marriage and fertility.The results confirm that servitization of manufacturing export promotes employment and income growth,especially for female labors,through deepening the division of labor and promoting the development of service industries,and that improvement in economic situation leads to a decrease in the demand for marriage and children.This paper first examines the impact of export trade liberalization of Chinese cities on marital and childbearing behaviors at the micro-individual level,which contributes to the existing literature on the following grounds.In terms of the research topic,first,there is literature on the theme of expansion of export scale and marriage and fertility,but it is mostly foreign-specific studies,and there are fewer domestic studies on this subject,and they are mostly at the macro level and have not yet addressed the micro-individual level,so,this is the first Chinese document to analyze the impact of export scale expansion on marriage and childbearing behavior at the micro-individual level.Second,to our knowledge,there is no research on the topic of export technology structure or servitization and marriage and fertility.Therefore,this paper may be the first literature to examine the relationship between export sophistication and individual marriage and childbearing behavior,as well as the first literature to examine the relationship between export servitization and individual marriage and childbearing behavior.Research on the theme of export trade liberalization and marital and fertility behaviors at the individual level not only contributes to a deeper understanding of the social impacts of international trade on households and individuals,but also helps to provide new explanations for changes in individual marital and fertility behaviors from the perspective of the output effects of trade.As far as the research perspective,based on the logic of "export trade liberalization-labor market output(employment,income,etc.)-individual marital and fertility behavior",this study links the researches of international trade with the studies of sociology and demography.On the one hand,it explains the marriage and fertility behavior from the perspective of economics,which extends the empirical studies in the field of marriage and fertility,and provides ideas for a profound understanding of current demographic issues.On the other hand,it explores the impact of export trade liberalization from a sociological perspective,which extends the social effects of trade to the marriage market and fertility behavior,and is a complement to the social effects of trade and even a complement to the output effects of trade(including social and economic effects),and enriches theoretical and empirical studies of international trade.Therefore,this study has very important theoretical and practical significance.This research is of great significance for the formulation of trade opening strategy,population development strategy,marriage policy and fertility policy,etc. |
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