Research On The Method Of Preference Evolution Of Large Group Decision-Making Based On Psychological Difference In Emergency Contexts

Recently,all kinds of unconventional emergencies have had a serious negative impact on the stability of human life and the development of the social economy.When an unconventional emergency occurs,the emergency decision-makers usually need to take out a reasonable emergency response plan to reduce the negative impact.Group decisionmaking can take into account various interests and overcome the shortcomings of individual knowledge,experience,ability,and information.It is a powerful tool to deal with major qualitative and quantitative decision-making problems.Different from the traditional decision-making problems,unconventional emergencies are difficult to predict,high-risk,fuzzy information,time pressure,and serious destruction.The wrong decision-making of emergency decision-makers will lead to disastrous consequences and delay the best decision-making opportunity.Therefore,the emergency decision-making of emergencies is worthy of in-depth research and discussion.Emergency decision-makers are the experts from various fields and have some experience in the handling of unconventional emergencies.However,in the actual emergency response decision-making process of unconventional emergencies,under the conditions of time pressure and risk,decision-makers often show limited rationality.Huge casualties,economic losses,heavy decision-making responsibility,negative public preference,and so on constantly impact decision-makers in the emergency decisionmaking process.Under this situation,decision makers may have different psychological differences from previous decision-making situations,such as extremes,sensitivity,anxiety,and so on.The psychological differences in these specific situations will affect the decision-making preferences of decision-makers,and then affect other decision-makers in the process of group interaction,resulting in deviation in the final decision-making results.Under the above background,from the perspective of psychology,the generation process and characteristics of individual psychological differences of decision-makers in emergencies are explored,as well as the influence mechanism of psychological differences on decision-making preferences.The dynamic evolution process and method of large group decision-making preferences under the influence of psychological differences of decision-makers in the context of emergency are obtained.Different from the previous decision preference consensus methods that emphasize decision results,the decision preference evolution method studied in this paper focuses on the process of dynamic formation of decision preference under the interaction and influence of decision-making individuals and other decision-making individuals in the group multi-stage decision-making.It is a method of preference evolution of large group decision-making that considers the decision-making relationship,the performance of decision preference,the evolution rules of decision preference,and the psychological difference of decision-makers in emergency contexts.The decision preference evolution method enriches the cross-research scope of group decision theory and psychological theory.The research work of this paper is as follows:(1)From the perspective of the "Stimulus-Organism-Response"(SOR)theory of cognitive psychology,the psychological characteristics of decision-makers in conventional decision-making events are analyzed.The reasons for the four typical psychological differences of decision-makers caused by the time urgency of emergency response,the uncertainty of the decision-making environment,abruptness,and great harmfulness are explained.The influence of the decision relation network on decision preference in the decision preference evolution environment is considered and combined with opinion dynamics theory,the evolution process of decision-makers’ preference under different psychological differences is analyzed.Finally,the two decision performance indicators of decisionmaking consensus and decision-making time are explained.The evolution framework of large group decision-making preference based on psychological differences under the emergency background is constructed,which provides theoretical support for the follow-up research work.(2)Aiming at the psychological difference characteristics of complete self-confidence of decision-makers under the pressure of high decisionmaking time,an impact model of individual complete self-confidence is constructed.By combining the direction and distance of the risk preference vector,a preference similarity model for decision-making members is put forward.The group with complete self-confidence is divided into two groups: the homogeneous group and the heterogeneous group.On this basis,the degree of subjective acceptance for incomplete self-confidence preference members is introduced to explain the acceptance degree that incomplete self-confidence preference members to the homogeneous group and heterogeneous group.The risk preference evolution model for multi-stage large group emergency decision-making is further constructed.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the contrast analysis of the data simulation results in Beach-Hill Gold Mine project of Da Chai-Dan Mining Company in Qinghai province.(3)Aiming at the fuzziness of decision-making preference interaction in social networks and considering the degree of decision-maker’s tolerance to fuzzy preferences,a perception model of decision-maker’s fuzzy preferences is proposed.Considering the various decision scenarios in emergency events,different decision structures are formed and multiple risks are involved,a comprehensive model incorporating the preference fuzziness and the correlation of preferences is proposed further to determine the effect of social network structure and the related preferences.Finally,according to the actual situation,the preference formation process in various structures of social networks is discussed and the proposed model is compared with the traditional preference dynamic model.The results show that the degree of preference fuzziness is different under different social network structures.This result illustrates the rationality and effectiveness of the method in this research.(4)Aiming at the psychological differences of communication barriers of cross-organizational decision-makers caused by the sudden and wide range of emergencies,the emergency cases of the Sinking of Dongfang Zhi Xing,2015 Tianjian Explosion,and 2008 Sichuan Earthquake are analyzed.A conceptual decision-making relationship network based on historical emergency events is constructed,and the psychological differences of communication barriers of Interorganizational decision-makers in emergencies are identified.On this basis,the opinion dynamics model is combined with social network analysis,The decision preference evolution model of Inter-organizational decisionmakers is proposed,which quantifies the psychological differences of communication barriers.To verify the correctness of the model,the trends of two emergency decision scenarios on the proposed model are analyzed through numerical examples.Finally,the 2013 Qingdao oil pipeline explosion is taken as an example,the feasibility and applicability of the model are verified.The case results show that the model can accurately quantify the impact of communication barriers on the formation time of decision-making opinions.(5)Aiming at the psychological difference of decision-makers’ emotional state caused by huge casualties in emergencies,the relationship model between stressors and decision-makers’ emotional state is constructed.The stimulation intensity of stressors is related to decisionmakers’ emotional state.According to the characteristics of calm emotion and negative emotion state of decision-makers,two evolution models of large group decision-making preference considering the psychological difference of emotional state are constructed.The emotion of decisionmakers is identified by constructing the emotion perception model.And then the decision preference evolution model under emotional intervention is constructed according to different emotional states.Taking the case of COVID-19 outbreak as an example,the applicability of the model is verified by simulation case analysis,and the differences in the evolution trend of large group decision preferences before and after emotional intervention are compared and analyzed.74 figures,27 tables,147 references...