Research On The Realization Mechanism Of Grass-livestock Balance Based On Herdsman Behavior

Grassland is the animal husbandry base of human beings.It not only inhabits and nurtures 3% of the world’s total population,35% of sheep,23% of goats and 16% of cattle,but also provides huge ecosystem services.By the end of 2019,China had invested a total of182.4 billion yuan in grassland ecological protection and management through transfer payments,covering 268 pastoral semi-pastoral counties(banners and cities)in 13 provinces(autonomous regions)across the country,accounting for more than 40% of the country’s land area.In various ecological protection policies and projects,the new phase of grass and livestock balance subsidy area reached 2.605 billion mu,far exceeding the supported grazing prohibition area(1.206 billion mu),and started the national top-down project for grassland ecological protection.Governance is a precedent for herdsmen to independently manage the balance of pastures and livestock,and has become the core content of grassland ecological protection and governance methods.As we all know,the grass-stock balance mechanism is a complete realization process based on the micro-herdsman household contract system through "policy implementation-farmers’ behavior response-policy goal realization".From the policy means to the realization of policy goals,the key is the transmission of farmers’ behavior,and the policy incentives for ecological compensation are realized by relying on the response of farmers’ behavior.Therefore,this paper devotes itself to introducing the concept of grass and livestock balance into the research field of micro-farmer household behavior and ecological environment management.The traditional way of thinking is to spy on micro-individual decision-making through macro-policy,to explain the complete logic chain of herdsmen’s behavior,and to explore the breakthrough of the balance between grass and livestock and the way out for the development of pastoral areas from the perspectives of herdsmen’s realistic decision-making characteristics and key obstacles.Based on the unit theory of grazing system,the theory of public goods and externalities,the theory of farmers’ behavior,and the theory of ecological compensation,this paper exploratoryly constructs the theoretical logical framework of "policy shock-herdsman behavior differentiation-realization of grass and livestock balance";2016 and 2018 in two periods of 411 farmer household survey data,measured the balance of pastures and livestock in pastures,analyzed the status quo of herdsmen’s grazing production and the transformation of production methods,and compared regional differences.Secondly,using DID,BI-Probit and other empirical evidences to test the impact of administrative regulation on herdsman households’ decision to reduce livestock,the impact of livestock reduction decision on herdsmen’s realization of the balance between grass and livestock,and the change of herdsmen’s production mode or non-pastoral employment decision after livestock reduction.its difference.Furthermore,using DID,propensity score matching method(PSM),etc.to analyze the influence of policy support on the basic decision-making of farmers’ grazing substitution behavior,the influence of grazing substitution behavior on herdsmen’s realization of the balance between grass and livestock,and the effect of different distribution methods on herdsmen’s efforts.,social well-being,etc.Finally,the OLS model,the mediation and moderating effect model and the Bootstrap method were used to empirically explore the impact of pasture restoration behavior on the realization of the balance between pasture and livestock and its effect on the realization of the balance between the pasture and livestock under the moderating effect of livestock reduction and grazing substitution behavior.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First,only 49.64% of the 411 herdsman households that contracted pastures were able to maintain the balance of grass and livestock,less than half of the total,indicating that the balance of grass and livestock at the herdsman household level is still difficult to achieve,and the utilization of grassland resources is extremely unbalanced..Over half of the survey samples were overloaded,mainly with mild overloading.Considering the heterogeneity of herdsmen’s income,pasture area and livestock size,it can be seen that the probability of overloaded herdsmen in the high-income group and the low-income group is basically the same as the characteristics of the total sample size,and the large-area herdsmen can achieve the ratio of the balance between grass and livestock.It is significantly higher than that of small-scale herdsmen,and the ratio of large-scale herdsmen to achieve a balance between grass and livestock is significantly lower than that of small-scale herdsmen.Second,with the promulgation and implementation of a new round of grassland ecological compensation policy,the local government’s ecological governance motivation has been fully stimulated,and the phenomenon of sample herdsmen being under the supervision and protection of the local government but not reducing livestock has been significantly reduced or even disappeared.The probability of achieving a balance between grass and livestock has increased significantly,but at the same time,there are still a few herdsmen who have not reduced livestock.Third,the reduction of livestock will prompt the herdsmen to change their grazing methods and carry out animal husbandry production through house feeding and captive feeding and artificial forage,but they will not choose non-grazing labor in high probability.When choosing,the comparative benefits under different scenarios are often considered.The grazing substitution behavior usually increases the labor intensity and production scale of herdsmen.Correspondingly,non-agricultural employment usually leads to higher comparative benefits.However,factors such as individual quality require higher.Further,through the "push-pull" theoretical exploration,it can be concluded that the obstacles to non-pastoral labor of herdsmen come from the lack of employment opportunities in pastoral areas and differences in customs and habits.Fourth,before the implementation of the new round of grassland ecological policy,there was no significant difference in the probability of achieving the balance between the pastoral households without grazing replacement and the herdsman households who did grazing replacement.After the implementation of the new round of policies,the probability of achieving a balance between pastures and livestock for grazing replacement herdsmen has been significantly improved compared with 2016.Further,the DID model verified the herdsmen who received and did not receive policy support,and concluded that the new round of policy implementation During the period,the herdsmen who replaced grazing greatly improved the probability of achieving the balance between grass and livestock compared with other herdsmen.At the same time,the impact of support policies on grazing substitution behavior is in an inverted "U shape",and the herdsmen who carry out half-house breeding are the most benefited.Under the distribution methods of different regional support policies,the "championship" distribution helps to motivate herdsmen to substitute grazing inputs in the short term,and in the long run,the "rotation system" is more conducive to the cooperation of herdsmen to achieve a balance between grass and livestock.Fifth,in terms of grazing management behavior,settled rest grazing and zoning rotation grazing greatly increased the probability of achieving the balance of grass and livestock,while nomadic grazing had no significant effect on the realization of the balance of grass and livestock.In terms of pasture improvement behaviors,improvement technologies are all conducive to achieving the balance between pastures and livestock,and the technology of cutting the turf has the greatest impact on the realization of the balance between grass and livestock.In addition,the behavior of reducing livestock had a positive regulatory effect on the pastoral households that settled and resting grazing to achieve the balance of grass and livestock,but negatively adjusted the pasture improvement technology to achieve the balance of grass and livestock.The grazing substitution behavior has a positive regulating effect on the herdsmen’s grazing management behavior and pasture improvement technology to achieve the balance between pasture and livestock.Finally,based on the summary of the research conclusions,the following policy implications are put forward: we must clearly understand the role of livestock reduction in the realization mechanism of the balance between grass and livestock,and carry out structural and step-by-step livestock reduction in a targeted manner;house feeding and other methods should not completely replace grazing,scientific grazing combined with grassland improvement is an important way to achieve the balance of grass and livestock;focus on breaking the barriers of herdsmen’s non-pastoral labor employment,and improve the non-agricultural and animal husbandry employment ability of herdsmen after reducing livestock;Dependence of herders’ livelihoods on grassland resources.