Research On The Quantitative Analysis Of Truck Traffic Risk Under The Influence Of Multiple Risk Factors

Trucking plays a vital role in our economy.In recent decades,with the rapid growth of China’s economy,the total amount of goods transported and the number of trucks owned have increased year by year.However,along with this,the number of truck crashes has also increased significantly,posing a great threat to people’s lives and properties.Therefore,given the importance of trucks and their impact on road traffic safety,truck safety should not be underestimated and research on truck traffic risk is urgent.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the truck crash risk under the superposition of multiple risk factors,to grasp the causes and influencing factors of truck drivers’ typical aberrant driving behaviors,and to quantify the impact of the superposition effects of multiple aberrant driving behaviors on road traffic safety and efficiency.Firstly,through the literature review and crash data analysis,a crash risk probability model based on risk factor classification index system and Mutual Information Theory was developed to quantitatively analyse the truck crash risk under the superposition of multiple risk factors.Secondly,the most representative aberrant driving behaviors of truck drivers,i.e.distracted driving and overloading,were investigated through questionnaire surveys respectively,their related factors were collected,and the structural equation models of distracted driving and overloading behaviors were developed based on the Theory of Planned Behavior,which then examined the frequencies,causes and influencing factors of truck drivers’ distracted driving and overloading behaviors.Finally,based on the traffic flow simulation model,a two-lane car-truck heterogeneous traffic flow simulation model considering the effects of distracted driving and overloading behaviors of truck drivers,and the aggressive lane-changing behavior of car drivers,was developed to quantify the impact the multiple aberrant driving behaviors,both individual and in superposition effects,on road traffic safety and traffic efficiency.The results indicate that truck drivers’ errors and violations have the greatest impact on truck crash risk and are the primary causes of truck crashes;the superposition of risk factors are quite prevalent in fatal crashes involving trucks,and the truck crash risk depends not only on the characteristics of the risk factors,but also on the number of risk factors in the crash and on the interactions between different risk factors.The factors influencing truck drivers’ distracted driving and overloading behaviors varied considerably,with driving intensity having a significant effect on both aberrant driving behaviors;attitude and perceived behavioral control had significant positive effects on distracted driving behavior,but had no effect on overloading behavior;and subjective norms had a significant positive effect on overloading behavior,but had no effect on distracted driving behavior.The study also obtained a CA model of car-truck heterogeneous traffic flow considering the superposition effects of several aberrant driving behaviors;on the one hand,truck drivers’ distracted driving and overloading behaviors had significant negative impacts on the traffic flow;on the other hand,the superposition of these two aberrant driving behaviors with the aggressive lane-changing behavior of car drivers further increased the road traffic risk,leading to a deterioration in road capacity,as well as significant increases in the incidence of dangerous situations and congestion rates.These findings have theoretical significance and practical guidance for reducing the truck traffic risk and improving the safety level of freight transport in China.