Impact Of Extreme Weather Events On Food Production And Their Mitigation Pathways

Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution,anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide have engendered a relentless elevation in global surface temperatures.This has led to a pronounced transformation in terrestrial precipitation patterns.The ramifications of this warming effect have been far-reaching,notably amplifying the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events—ranging from droughts and heatwaves to intense rainfall.These phenomena have exerted a direct deleterious influence on crop productivity,exacerbating the crops’climate sensitivity,while concurrently diminishing their capacity for resilience.The collective outcome has placed formidable challenges on the realm of food production.While antecedent investigations have predominantly focused on the interplay between climate change and the corresponding responses in crop productivity,there remains an appreciable gap in understanding the intricate influence of extreme weather events on crop productivity,encompassing both the direct damages incurred and the associated shifts in sensitivity.Additionally,the potential role of anthropogenic interventions in ameliorating the adverse repercussions of climate change remains relatively nebulous.Furthermore,there exists a marked diversity in adaptive strategies across regions characterized by varying levels of economic development.Less developed regions are oftentimes reliant on direct harnessing of natural resources as a prospective avenue for mitigating the impact on agriculture.Conversely,regions that are in a state of developmental transition have exhibited a proclivity toward socioeconomic compensation as a mechanism to safeguard agricultural productivity.In contrast,regions that have achieved a high level of development necessitate a more nuanced approach in the form of environmentally tailored anthropogenic interventions,while simultaneously endeavoring to minimize the ecological costs incurred in the pursuit of agricultural production.Given the escalating trajectory of future warming,there is an exigent need to establish a comprehensive framework that can accurately estimate the dynamic alterations in the occurrence of extreme weather events,the concomitant losses in crop yields,and the underlying fluctuations in crop sensitivity.Concurrently,a concerted exploration is warranted to delineate distinct pathways that are commensurate with the socioeconomic disparities among nations,in a concerted effort to mitigate the adverse ramifications of climate change.In addressing the aforementioned scientific inquiries,this study conducts a corroborative investigation within representative regions covering a spectrum of economic development levels,namely North Korea and its surrounding areas,as well as the United States,which are prone to recurrent extreme weather events on a global scale.Leveraging available environmental data and multiple-source models,we examine the impact of extreme weather events on regional food production and the feasibility and potential of mitigation strategies.By integrating empirical models,semi-empirical models,and mechanistic models with a wealth of environmental data,we replicate crop productivity at the site-specific,ecosystem-wide,and regional scales.Building upon this foundation,we investigate the responsiveness of crop productivity to environmental factors across multiple scales,attributing their contributions.We unveil the enduring consequences of extreme weather events on crop production within the study regions,elucidating the long-term implications from the perspective of crop productivity losses and sensitivity dynamics.Furthermore,we quantify the potential effects of varying levels of economic development on societal resilience in mitigating food production reductions resulting from extreme weather events.Additionally,we explore the prospects for climate-smart agricultural practices in developed regions to alleviate crop climate sensitivity and curtail climate costs,as measured by greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food production.The main findings are as follows:(1)Simulations of situ crop productivity based on multi-dimensional environmental data and model.The research employed a pixel-wise modeling approach and various remote sensing indices,as well as phenological information,accurately portraying the dynamic evolution of rice cultivation distribution in historical North Korea and its surrounding regions.The Random Forest model performed admirably in predicting rice yield and total production interannual variability,with a high prediction accuracy of R~2=0.83-0.87,significantly outperforming other empirical models.Furthermore,our study supported the feasibility of predicting rice yield one phenological stage in advance.The Random Forest model also successfully simulated ecosystem light use efficiency in croplands,exhibiting high accuracy.Finally,through parameter tuning of the Ecosystem Model(DLEM v4.0),we successfully captured changes in wheat yield,maintaining a high level of productivity simulation performance at the national scale.The DLEM model also reliably simulated greenhouse gas emissions and soil organic carbon,providing a dependable tool for climate cost assessment and national-scale food security monitoring.(2)Regional crop productivity prediction and its relationship with environmental factors.This study proposed a climate-similarity-based transferable framework for rice yield prediction in data-scarce regions.Compared to statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,the predictive results explained 78.72%and 76.89%of total production variability and 69.42%and 71.15%of yield variability in the WGP and SHP scenarios,respectively.In this process,we found that SIF played a primary role in rice yield prediction,contributing more than 15%,followed by maximum temperature and evapotranspiration,explaining over 20%of rice yield variation.Additionally,we predicted regional biomass using an improved ecosystem light use efficiency model,identifying high temperature and heatwaves as the most critical environmental factors influencing rice biomass variation in North Korea.Finally,based on process models and remote sensing data,we successfully simulated historical changes in wheat productivity and greenhouse gas emissions,and conducted an in-depth analysis of influencing factors.Climate change and nitrogen fertilizer application played dominant roles in greenhouse gas emissions and yield change per unit greenhouse gas emissions,while land use,climate,and nitrogen fertilizer application had a greater impact on total greenhouse gas emissions and total production.(3)Characterizing the Response of Typical Regional Grain Production to Extreme Weather Events.Extreme heat events and extreme precipitation events in 2000 and 2007respectively led to significant fluctuations in North Korean rice production.With future climate warming,North Korea faces a higher risk of extreme heat and rainfall events.Without adaptation strategies,rice biomass in North Korea is projected to decrease by 18.9%and 20.2%by the 2080s under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively,and rice total production is expected to decline by 13%and 14.4%,respectively.This will further strain an already fragile food production system,exacerbating future food insecurity.Additionally,the U.S.wheat belt has experienced an intensification of hot and dry events over the past sixty years,particularly during the wheat growing season,with over 75%of the region at risk of drought.These hot and dry events have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions intensity in over 70%of winter wheat planting areas and 90%of spring wheat planting areas in the United States.The sensitivity of greenhouse gas emissions intensity for spring wheat has increased 2.2 times,while for winter wheat,it has increased 5.4 times since 2008.In most experimental sites,wheat yields have experienced negative impacts from hot and dry climatic shocks,increasing the sensitivity of 29.9%of winter wheat sites and 27.5%of spring wheat sites.(4)Dominant Mitigation Measures for Different Development Levels in Regions Under Extreme Climate.Based on a comparative study of different economic development levels in North Korea and its surrounding areas,it was found that,at the present stage,social resilience contributes less to rice production in North Korea but significantly explains rice production in South Korea and China,increasing model explanatory power by over 26%and 100%,respectively.High temperatures and heatwaves pose a threat to rice production in South Korea,but resource utilization such as regional nitrogen input,rural population,and population aged0-14 have reversed the impact of these climate shocks,even promoting higher rice yields.Similarly,resource utilization in China mitigates the adverse effects of extreme rainfall events.Non-linear models also demonstrate that in less developed regions(15.2%),social resilience contributes much less to grain production than in developed regions and developing regions(83.0%and 86.1%,respectively).Historical dynamic simulations show that conventional tillage(CT)and no-tillage(NT)significantly reduce the sensitivity of winter wheat to high temperatures in the U.S.Midwest.Particularly,CT has a more significant effect in northern regions’winter wheat and spring wheat planting areas,alleviating the negative impact of hot and dry climate events on production.Implementing climate-smart farming strategies can effectively reduce the sensitivity of GHGI to hot and dry climate in 31%of wheat areas in the United States,reducing the sensitivity of GHGI nationwide by approximately 9%.This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship between extreme weather events and crop production,offering viable adaptation strategies for diverse economic development regions.Future research endeavors should strive to establish a more precise comprehensive framework for crop yield losses and dynamic sensitivities to effectively address the challenges posed by climate change.Moreover,it is imperative to thoroughly consider distinct pathways for mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change,taking into full account the socio-economic variations among nations and regions.This holistic approach aims to better safeguard global food security and achieve sustainability in agriculture.