Planning And Reliability Evaluation For Integrated Energy Systems With Consideration Of Uncertainty

As the problems of world energy crisis and environmental pollution have become increasingly serious,various types of renewable energy and clean energy have developed rapidly.As an efficient means for the utilization of electricity,natural gas,heat energy and so on,the electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system has emerged.It is of great significance to carry out the research on the planning and reliability evaluation of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system for accelerating the construction of a clean,low-carbon,safe,efficient and sustainable energy system.This dissertation focuses on the extension of common information model,multi-energy flow,reliability evaluation and co-planning of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system considering uncertainties of distributed generations and multi-loads.The main contributions can be summarized as follows:In the analysis of common information model extension of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system,this paper thoroughly studies the composition and characteristics of the electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system and extends the common information model based on the IEC 61970 in order to break the information islands phenomenon of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy systems,such as multienergy flow calculation,optimal scheduling,and operational control.It is established that the extension model of complete natural gas system,thermal system,coupling links and multi-energy storage systems.In addition,the attributes of each key class in the electricity-natural gas-heat integrated energy system are described.The extension common information model is built under the Rational Rose platform and an example verification is given.In the analysis of multi-energy flow of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system,this paper establishes deterministic multi-energy flow calculation model of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system by modelling the power subsystem,natural gas subsystem,thermal subsystem and coupling link.Considering the fluctuation and randomness of distributed generations such as wind power and photovoltaic,as well as the uncertainty of multiple loads such as electricity,gas and heat,a multi-energy flow calculation model considering uncertainty is proposed based on interval affine mathematical method.At the same time,the correctness and efficiency of the proposed interval affine method are analyzed by an example.In the analysis of reliability evaluation of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system,this paper firstly establishes the reliability modeling of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system considering various energy forms of electricity,natural gas and heat,complex coupling relations and multi-energy storage.Secondly,from the user’s perspective,the indexes of user’s severity perception degree of energy consumption faults and user’s satisfaction degree of energy consumption are introduced in order to describe user’s experience of energy consumption.For the side of users and user groups,the reliability evaluation indexes of energy consumption are proposed,including the reliability evaluation indexes of electricity consumption,the reliability evaluation indexes of gas consumption and the reliability evaluation indexes of heat consumption.Finally,the reliability evaluation method of electricity-gas-heat multienergy consumption based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed.In the analysis of planning and design of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system,this paper establishes a source-grid-storage co-planning model of electricitygas-heat integrated energy system.This model aims at minimizing the total planning cost to realize the optimal planning for the types and locations of energy supply sources,distribution pipelines,energy hubs and energy storage devices.To reflect the true experience of users on energy consumption,the indices of user energy consumption satisfaction are built and the cost energy consumption reliability is considered into the co-planning model.In addition,considering the uncertainties of loads and distributed generations,this paper establishes the interval co-planning model and solves it by interval quadratic planning method.