Stochastic Energy Network Planning Of Regional Integrated Energy Systems Based On Probabilistic Multi-energy Flow

Regional integrated energy systems,as the link of trans-regional integrated energy systems and user-level integrated energy systems,are synthesis of generation,transmission,distribution,transformation,storage and consumption of multiple kinds of energy.Meanwhile,electricity,natural gas and heat can be managed and dispatched simultaneously in regional integrated energy systems.The research of regional integrated energy systems provides a comprehensive energy utilization solution.Firstly,this dissertation studies the multi-energy flow of regional integrated energy systems composed of electricity,natural gas and heat.A calculation model is then established.After that,the probabilistic model of renewable energy source generation and multi-energy load is proposed.This dissertation applies Pearson correlation parameters to describe the correlations among the loads of different energy subsystems.The correlated samples are generated based on Nataf transformation.Based on three-point estimation,the probabilistic multi-energy flow considering correlation is proposed.The effect of the load fluctuation of the coupling part and the correlations among multiple energy loads on probabilistic multi-energy flow is studied.A unified network planning model of regional integrated energy systems is established with the objective function of minimizing total cost,and the improved particle swarm optimization is used to solve this model.The advantages of unified planning are illustrated.Combined with chance constrained programming,a stochastic energy network planning model is proposed.This model is solved by the improved particle swarm optimization embedded with probabilistic multi-energy flow based on three-point estimation.The simulation results of a test system and a system of a certain region in Jiangsu prove that the stochastic network planning method of regional integrated energy systems is practical,which can provide reference for regional integrated energy system construction.