| With the increasingly severe energy security situation,the low-carbon,highefficiency,and sustainable development of energy has attracted attentions.The energy revolution characterized by low carbonization,decentralization,marketization,integration,and digitization is sweeping the world.With the large-scale development of distributed energy resources,some areas in other countries have enabled Distributed Energy Resources Aggregator(DERA)to compete in all regional organized wholesale electric markets.To accelerate the energy revolution and realize the carbon neutral target in 2060,China has determined that energy development should adhere to both centralized and distributed energy sources in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision Outline.Meanwhile,the government issued a series of policies to promote the development of new energy,such as new tariffs for solar and wind power,green electricity trading rules,and distributed energy trading rules etc.In recent years,the scale of distributed resource capacity has continued to increase in China,and the county-wide distributed photovoltaic pilot construction has been listed as an important task during the 14th Five-Year Period.Although the current distributed transaction pilots are mainly based on grid companies sell on behalf of the DERS or purchase the electricity based on benchmark on-grid tariffs,it will become a trend for distributed resource aggregators to participate in market-oriented transactions with the deepening of power market and the new power system constructions.However,since the construction of electricity market in China is still in the initial stage as well as the market mechanisms are constantly being improved,the market capabilities of the participants need to be improved urgently.Therefore,it is necessary to study how market entities can improve their decision-making ability and efficiency through scientific methods in a complex market environment.Based on the current situation of China’s power market and the development trend of regional distributed energy systems(RDES),this thesis summarized the relevant theories of decision-making in power transaction.According to the characteristics of the regional distributed energy system,the market information analysis model,transaction decision-making model and benefit distribution model were constructed for the regional distributed energy system to assist the aggregators to participate in the dayahead market.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)It summarized the state of art of bidding strategies of regional distributed energy system.And defined the connotation of support bidding strategies.Then,the relevant theories in terms of the topic were illustrated.In details.the state of arts was summarized in terms of regional distributed energy system,peer to peer transactions,and power bidding strategies at first.Secondly,the theories were explained including definition of regional distributed energy system and distributed energy trading modes.Finally,the research boundary of this thesis was defined with respects to the transaction mode,transaction procedures and other aspects,which provide theoretical and practical basis for the decision-making modeling of the regional distributed energy system in the following chapters.(2)A day-ahead market price forecasting model was established for RDES.Firstly,the relevant factors of day-ahead market price forecast are analyzed including load,new energy,and thermal power output space,etc.Second,the forecast target’s similar days are selected based on the CRITIC-entropy weight method.Then,an improved GS-LSSVM day-ahead market price forecasting model is proposed,and the forecasting effectiveness of different combinations of relevant factors and different forecasting models are compared.Finally,the validity of the proposed model is verified by example analyses,which provides the foundation for RDES trading decision making in day-ahead market.(3)A day-ahead transaction decision-making model of single-stakeholder regional distributed energy system considering the uncertainty of market price fluctuation is proposed.First,the non-stochastic uncertainty of day-ahead market prices is dealt with based on the information gap decision theory.Secondly,in terms of the regional distributed energy system composed of a single stakeholder,the robust decision-making model as well as the opportunity decision-making model of the aggregator with different risk preference in day-ahead market are constructed based on the IGDT theory.Further,by introducing the prospect theory,the psychological factors in the decision-making of RDESA are effectively considered,and the dayahead quotation decision m in the dual-track market environment is obtained through the utility function.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified by example analyses.(4)A day-ahead transaction decision-making model of multi-stakeholder regional distributed energy system considering the difference of multi-risk preference is proposed.Firstly,the combination scenarios of the different risk preference of multi-stakeholders are analyzed.Secondly,based on the IGDT theory,a robust and opportunistic decision-making model for regional distributed energy system dayahead transactions is constructed considering the uncertainty of the day-ahead market price.Then,the feasibility and strategic effectiveness of robust decision-making and opportunistic decision-making of RDES considering the differences in risk preference of multiple participants are analyzed.Finally,the bidding strategies of multistakeholder regional distributed energy system has been determined.(5)A power trading benefits distribution model with a cloud center of gravity improved Shapley value for DERS is proposed.Firstly,the initial distribution of the RDES’s benefits in day-ahead market is carried out based on the traditional Shapley value.Secondly,considering the risk level,profit contribution and forecast level of the members in the RDES during the transaction process,a standard system of income distribution is built.Then,based on the improved Shapley value method with the cloud center of gravity,the income correction values are determined by the threedimensional cloud center of gravity,so that the corrected incomes of members are closer to reality.Finally,the effectiveness and robustness of the improved Shapley value method are verified by example analysis and sensitivity analysis. |
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