Research On Building Energy Consumption And Energy Conservation Planning Strategy At Urban Scale Based On Agent-based Modeling

Building energy conservation is one of the main components of urban energy conservation and emission reduction in China.It is also an important means to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.At the critical moment of China’s current economic and social development and transformation,building energy saving will play an important role that cannot be underestimated.In recent years,China’s building energy conservation has changed from the innovation of building energy saving materials to the urban scale building energy conservation planning.Under the promotion of various policy measures,China’s building energy conservation work has made great progress.But compared with the expected goal of environmental governance,there is still a big gap.Especially in cities such as Harbin,which is located in severe cold regions,there are still many problems,such as imperfect overall planning system for building energy conservation at urban scale,large building energy consumption base due to extreme climate conditions,difficulty in energy conservation reconstruction in old urban areas,and insufficient awareness of energy conservation among residents,which greatly restrict the development of building energy conservation at the overall level of the city.This research takes the strategic orientation of national green development,the important role of urban building energy conservation,the practical demand of building energy conservation in severe cold regions,and the inevitable trend of innovation in technology and methods of energy conservation planning research as research background,and takes the impact of urban environment on the overall building energy consumption as the entry point.In this research,agent-based modelling and statistical methods were used to explore the influence mechanism of Harbin’s urban morphology,climate environment and energy use behavior on the building energy consumption at urban scale,and an agent-based model of Harbin’s building energy consumption at urban scale was constructed.According to the comparative analysis of the simulation results of the model,the countermeasures of Harbin urban scale building energy conservation planning were identified.Based on this,the research finally put forward the building energy-saving planning strategies which were suitable for the future green and low-carbon development of Harbin.The structure of the research is "theoretical cognition--feature analysis--mechanism identification--model simulation--planning strategy".The "Theoretical Cognition" section: Existing studies on building energy consumption at urban scale,agent-based modeling,impact factors of building energy consumption at urban scale,practice and evaluation constitute the research basis of this research.This study briefly analyzes the characteristics and research methods of building energy consumption at the urban scale from the theoretical level,and further introduces the application of agent-based modeling in the study of building energy consumption,as well as the impact factors of building energy consumption at the urban scale.In the end,the planning practice and policy evaluation of China and international developed cities are summarized.These provide theoretical and technical support for the study of building energy consumption and the proposal of energy conservation planning strategy in Harbin at urban scale.The "Feature Analysis" section: From the perspectives of climate,environment,urban space and economic development,as well as energy conservation policy,the background of building energy consumption in Harbin is outlined.This research analyzes the current characteristics of building energy consumption at urban scale in Harbin from two aspects of building energy consumption and residents’ energy use habit.Using statistical and geospatial analysis methods,the energy use characteristics of different types of buildings,the spatial and temporal distribution of building electricity and heating energy consumption,the basic energy use demand of residents,the cognitive level and behavior characteristics of residents’ energy conservation,and the classification of residents’ energy conservation awareness are identified.The basic outline of the current condition of building energy consumption in Harbin and the basic level of residents’ energy conservation awareness are revealed to provide basic data and elements support for the follow-up research.The "Mechanism Identification" section: Based on the theoretical support of impact factors of building energy consumption at urban scale,this research explores the influence mechanism of urban morphology,climate environment and residents’ energy use behavior on building energy consumption at urban scale of Harbin by both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.Firstly,the types of impact factors of building energy consumption at urban scale in Harbin are refined.Secondly,statistical methods are used to construct multiple regression models to identify the influencing mechanisms of urban morphology factors and climate factors,and agent-based modeling method is used to construct a dynamic simulation model to identify the influence mechanism of energy use behavior factors.Then,the influence of urban morphology,climate and energy use behavior on the building energy consumption of electricity and heating are calculated,so that the influence mechanism of impact factors on the energy consumption of buildings at urban scale in Harbin is obtained.The results provide important parameter support for the construction of agent-based model of building energy consumption in Harbin at urban scale.The "Model Simulation" section: Based on the quantitative results of impact factors obtained from "mechanism identification" section,an agent-based model of building energy consumption at urban scale in Harbin is established.The model construction follows the overall design ideas of spatial linkage of urban scale building energy consumption,integration of impact factors and prediction of urban scale building energy consumption based on agent-based modelling,and the agent levels are set as "global-building-resident-equipment".The model is compiled and built based on Any Logic software.The integration of three kinds of impact parameters in the same model environment is realized by the way of embedding different function modules and dynamic interaction of environmental factors setting.The model realizes the main functions of data query,module update,energy consumption calculation and scenario design.Based on the designed energy-saving scenarios,the research simulates the energy consumption of buildings in Harbin at urban scale,and analyzes and compares the simulation results from four aspects: the distribution of building energy consumption under the baseline scenario,the energy-saving effect of urban morphology factors,the energy-saving effect of climate factors and the types of energy-saving policy.The "Planning Strategy" section: Based on the extended discussion in the previous sections,following the overall planning strategy of focus and balance,overall efficiency and differentiated demands,and the win-win low-carbon development and economic benefits,this research puts forward the countermeasures for the future building energy conservation planning in Harbin from the aspects of spatial layout,ecological environment,energy conservation policy and planning implementation.Focusing on the guidance and control of the urban spatial layout,the governance and renewal of the urban ecological environment,the difference-driven policy traction,and the coordination of planning implementation guarantees,this research finally proposed the building energy-saving planning strategies of Harbin with scientific basis and operability,to ensure the long-term construction and transformation of Harbin’s low-carbon development.For the comprehensive low-carbon green transformation of Harbin in the period of ecological construction and development,through the quantitative simulation of the relationship between building energy consumption and impact factors at urban scale,this study identifies the coping approaches of building energy conservation planning at urban scale,and puts forward the planning strategies suitable for the future development of Harbin in the foreseeable space and time range.This study is supposed to construct a research framework and technical methods to support the building energy conservation planning at urban scale at the theoretical level,and to promote the process of urban energy conservation planning in the severe cold region at the practical level.