| The amount of motor vehicles and correspondent travel demand are continuously increasing with economic and social development.The operation of road networks changed from smooth to crowed and finally to congestion step by step.It damaged the stability and reliability of traffic operation,and has adverse effects on economy and environment.The limited land resources in metropolitan area restricts the further construction of urban transportation infrastructure.Therefore,the scientific application of traffic management and control measures to ensure the operation reliability of traffic control system,improve the operation efficiency of road network,so as to adapt to the growing traffic demand,has become an important means for decision-making and management departments to relieve the current urban traffic congestion.With the continuously improvement of social life,there are increase both in the ways and frequency of travelling activities,in order to complete the travel activities as more as possible in the limit time,residents gradually improve the requirements of traffic running efficiency and reliability.Therefore,the research on reliability optimization of road traffic network control system has become an important content in the field of reliability research.At the same time,with the rapid development of traffic data detection system,the reliability research based on trajectory data has become an important topic of intelligent transportation system.The theoretical research on reliability optimization of road traffic network control system driven by trajectory data mainly includes three steps.The purpose of the first step is to clarify the basic problems of road network reliability research for trajectory data analysis and clarify the application of trajectory data.The second step is to determine the reliability calculation method of the road network control system driven by trajectory data,to truly evaluate the reliability of the dynamic road network,and to provide a basis for the optimization of road network reliability.Final step is to optimize the overall reliability of the road network considering the equilibrium of the nodes and road network reliability.Finally,a series of theories and methods that aim to optimize the reliability of the urban road traffic network control system are formed.Regarding the research on the basic problems of road network reliability analysis driven by trajectory data,the research object is time-based trajectory.the application of time-based trajectory in road network reliability research is clarified,and the single mode is adopted to study the characteristic behavior of vehicle movement.The principal component analysis method and the hybrid algorithm of canopy and k-means are used to identify the different driving states of the vehicle,and the contour coefficient evaluation index is used to evaluate the attributes of the identified vehicle in different driving states.The reliability research on road network control system driven by trajectory data is divided into two levels: node and road network.To the intersection,based on system reliability theory and probability theory,a reliability model for a two-phase signalized intersection is proposed.The evolution on the travel time reliability of timing control and adaptive control intersection are studied respectively,and the mechanism of traffic flow saturation and signal timing plan on travel time reliability is analyzed.Through actual data verification and simulation analysis,it is concluded that the reliability model can not only reflect the characteristics of delay and travel time reliability under different traffic flow conditions,but also can evaluate the operational reliability of single intersection more truthfully.To road network,a dynamic road network reliability model is constructed,and a road network reliability estimation method driven by trajectory data is proposed;considering the condition of low trajectory data penetration rate,a dynamic road network reliability based on the macro basic graph theory is proposed.Considering the influence factors of traffic flow and signal timing,the evolution mechanism of dynamic road network reliability changing with different traffic conditions is analyzed.Through sample calculation and simulation analysis,the accuracy and applicable conditions of the two dynamic road network reliability estimation methods are evaluated.Regarding research on the reliability optimization method,according to the proposed intersection travel time reliability and dynamic road network reliability concepts,the travel time reliability of the intersection and road network are optimized respectively.In terms of intersections,considering the impact of abnormal conditions of traffic incidents on the intersection travel time reliability,and construct an intersection reliability optimization method that considers the impact of traffic incidents.In terms of road network,based on the multi-attribute decision-making theory,a method for determining critical intersections considering reliability is proposed.On the basis of determining the critical intersections in the road network,maintaining the balance between reliability of the intersection and the road network,optimizing the reliability of overall road network.The microscopic simulation experiment is used to verify the accuracy of the road network reliability optimization method.The research content,research methods and research conclusions involved in this paper are the extension and supplement of the theoretical research on reliability optimization of road traffic network control system driven by trajectory data.The research results have academic significance for further exploring the reliability analysis on road traffic network control systems.At the same time,it can provide reference for the complex system reliability research of hub passenger traffic and urban rail transit systems that have similar control system reliability management and control requirements. |
