| For a long time,the rapid economic development is excessively dependent on fossil fuels,which leads to the increasingly prominent problems such as environmental pollution and climate change,and the global energy transformation is imminent in the severe situation of global warming.As one of the major contributors to carbon emissions,electrification of the transportation sector has become an important measure to address energy depletion and climate challenges.Compared with traditional vehicles,the power batteries used in electric vehicles(EVs)rely more on critical metals,especially core raw materials like lithium,cobalt,and nickel.As the world’s largest market for EVs,the continuous popularization of EVs in China will have a huge impact on critical metal demand,coupled with the high dependence of China’s critical metals on foreign countries,the contradiction between supply and demand of critical metals is increasingly prominent,and the sustainable supply is facing severe challenges.With the wave of power batteries scrap,there is great potential in the resources recycling.In this context,how to scientifically predict the future demand trend,and comprehensively judge the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals in China’s EV industry under the background of energy transition based on the coupling perspective of primary and renewable resources has become an important issue to be solved urgently.Taking EV industry in China and three critical metals of lithium,cobalt and nickel as the research objects,based on the perspective of the whole life cycle,this study scientifically predicts and analyzes the future demand and sustainable supply guarantee of critical metals in China’s EV industry,where primary-recycled metal coupling is configured as an entry point.Firstly,following the characteristics of critical metal demand,this study accurately calculates the historical supply and demand of lithium,cobalt and nickel in China’s EV industry using material flow analysis(MFA)method,and then studies the balance between supply and demand.Secondly,based on the identification of influencing factors for critical metal demand by LMDI method,the stock-driven model and scenario analysis are integrated to describe the future demand picture of critical metals from two dimensions of EV market size and power battery technology path.Thirdly,on account of the coupling configuration mechanism of primary and recycled metals,both supply and demand scenarios are incorporated into the evaluation framework to evaluate the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals.Finally,the sustainable supply guarantee paths of critical metals are designed for each link of the whole life cycle,and the combination guarantee path is comprehensively proposed by quantitative analysis.Then how to achieve the joint force of supply and demand is discussed in combination with reality,which would provide theoretical guidance and scientific support for ensuring the supply security of critical metals in China’s EV industry under the background of energy transition.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Accurately calculate the historical supply and demand of critical metals in China’s EV industry,and judge the balance between supply and demand.EV industry in China started relatively late,demand of which increased significantly after 2014 and slowed down after 2018.Lithium is mainly used for NCM-111 and NCM-622,cobalt is mainly used for NCM and NCA,nickel is mainly used for NCM cathodes,and the power battery shows the development trend of “low cobalt and high nickel”;For the historical supply,from 2010 to 2020,primary production of lithium and nickel in China wavelike rose,cobalt primary production fluctuated greatly.After 2018,end-of-life EVs in China increased significantly.The critical metals used in EVs are mainly based on primary resources at present,and the rapid accumulation of EVs in the future will greatly drive the growth of lithium,cobalt and nickel social stock in use,which will gradually make renewable resources an important supplementary source.(2)Scientifically describe the demand picture of critical metals in China’s EV industry based on demand factor decomposition.The combined influence of the four factors has a positive effect on critical metal demand,among which the industrial structure effect contributes the most,followed by the economic growth effect,and the technological progress effect has the most obvious differentiated impact on the demand of lithium,cobalt and nickel.The growth rate of China’s EVs is expected to slow down after the rapid growth in 2023-2030,and the demand for lithium,cobalt and nickel will respectively increase by 44 times,43 times and 14 times during the forecast period under the Base scenario;In the dimension of power battery technology path,on the one hand,extending battery life could simultaneously reduce the critical metal demand and make the demand peak ahead of schedule.On the other hand,the evolution of battery chemistry technology will significantly reduce the demand for cobalt and nickel;In the dimension of EV market size,per capita vehicle ownership and EV market share have a significant impact on critical metal demand.In the Pessimistic scenario,the cumulative demand for lithium,cobalt and nickel will reach 1.5 times that of the Base scenario,and decrease to 55%,18% and 10% under the Optimistic scenario.(3)Assess the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals under the coupling allocation mechanism of primary and renewable resources.In each scenario,there is a domestic shortage of critical metals required by China’s EVs.Recycling can effectively reduce the dependence on primary resources,so that the primary demand for lithium,cobalt and nickel could be met through global reserves;At present,there is a growing connection between the primary critical metals and the total demand of EVs in China,the evolution trend of which is expected to be EC-WD-SD-RD,and the multiplier effect of renewable resources shows an exponential growth trend.The supply and demand scenarios have their own advantages and disadvantages on the four sustainable supply indexes.The two combination scenarios have similar effects on SI and SDR,which makes the value of AC decrease more significantly and reach the peak in advance,but still cannot make the resources of lithium,cobalt and nickel achieve a stable and strong sustainable utilization state.(4)Design the sustainable supply guarantee paths of critical metals based on the perspective of life cycle and evaluate the effect quantitatively.The path of resource augmentation can release the primary supply potential of critical metals from the perspective of increasing income.Resource recovery path becomes an important guarantee means when the primary supply is limited and the improvement potential of recycling rate is insufficient.The resource conservation path can break the sustainable supply problems that may be brought by future battery technology path from the demand side,and play a role of “timely help”.The combination of advantageous security paths that our country can take in the future is: moderately increasing resource development-encouraging secondary utilization-promoting resource saving,which increases the original and renewable supply as well as reduces total demand,and form a sustainable supply security force through the control of the production,consumption intensity,recycling efficiency,the proportion of secondary utilization and other core indicators from the both aspects of supply and demand.The main contributions of this study are as follows:(1)Based on the perspective of energy-metal coupling and the whole life cycle,this study constructs a dynamic material flow analysis framework for multi-system coupling of “EVs-primary metals-recycled metals” by integrating the demand system of “EVs-critical metals” and the supply system of“primary metals-recycled metals”,so as to incorporates the demand mechanism of EV industry and the coupling configuration mechanism of primary-recycled metals into the sustainable supply model,which provides a new theoretical framework for the research on sustainable supply of critical metals in the context of energy transition as well as enriches and expands the resource security theory.(2)This study constructs accounting and forecasting model of critical metal demand in China’s EV industry,and captures the impact of two dimensions like EV market scale and power battery technology path,by integrating methods of dynamic material flow and scenario analysis.It improves the breadth and accuracy of accounting and forecasting,solves the difficult problems that critical metals are difficult to study in the macroeconomy due to the characteristics of small volume and rapid change of technical route,and expands the resource demand forecasting theory.(3)Facing major strategic needs such as energy transition and sustainable development,the impact of EV development on the demand side is incorporated into the sustainable supply model under the primary-regenerative coupling configuration,to judge the sustainable supply capacity of critical metals in multiple scenarios.The guarantee paths are designed based on each link of the life cycle and the guarantee effect is quantitatively evaluated,which would make the policy recommendations more focused and actionable,and then provide a decision-making basis for the supply guarantee of critical metals for China’s energy transition and the realization of the “dual carbon” goal. |
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