| In the process of rapid economic development,problems such as resource shortage,environmental degradation and ecological imbalance have become increasingly apparent.The continuous deterioration of the environment not only poses a threat to human health and living environment,but also makes the sustainable economic growth face a "bottleneck".Therefore,how to give consideration to the dual goals of economic development and environmental protection has become a practical problem that all countries in the world urgently need to solve.In recent years,China has paid attention to the quality of the ecological environment,vigorously developed the green economy,and constrained and encouraged highly polluting enterprises to carry out green transformation.The release of the Green Credit Guidelines in 2012 and the proposal of the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" goals in 2020 have demonstrated China’s determination to actively address environmental issues and promote green economic development.The enterprise sector is the main body of pollution emissions in China,and the green and sustainable development of the economy needs the help of green production of the enterprise sector.However,the existence of the externalize of enterprise pollution emissions has led to the lack of motivation for enterprises to actively carry out environmental protection and green transformation.Therefore,in addition to the mandatory environmental regulation measures,the regulatory authorities and the government must urgently guide enterprises to conduct energy conservation,emission reduction and green production from the financial policy level.The green development of enterprises needs the restriction and incentive of green credit policy.Based on the green credit policy,this paper deeply explores the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk and the transmission mechanism from the macro analysis,external transmission mechanism analysis and internal transmission mechanism analysis of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,and deeply analyzes the space spillover effect and industry regulation effect between the two.Therefore,this paper establishes an analysis framework around the main line of "raising the problem-sorting out the theory-deducing the theoretical model-empirical analysis",and discusses the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk and the transmission mechanism.This has important theoretical value and practical significance for the effective implementation of green credit policy,the prevention of enterprise risks and the green development of economy under the background of green economic transformation.Specifically,this study mainly answers the following four questions:(1)Can green credit policies affect enterprise risk?(2)If so,what is the impact mechanism?(3)Is there space spillover effect and industry regulation effect of green credit policy on enterprise risk?(4)What measures should China take to improve the effectiveness of green credit policies and prevent enterprise risks?Based on the above issues,this paper explores and tests the above issues from three aspects:theoretical analysis,mathematical model construction and empirical analysis.First of all,this paper uses the existing research results for reference,uses the credit rationing theory,financing constraint theory,externalize theory and resource based theory to explain the theoretical basis of the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk,and uses theoretical analysis methods to analyze the mechanism of the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk.First,from the perspective of credit constraints,cost constraints and external market competition,analyze the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk and the transmission mechanism;The second is to analyze the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk and its transmission mechanism from the perspective of agency cost,green information disclosure and innovation investment level.At the same time,combined with the actual situation of the development of green credit policy,the paper analyzes the development status of green credit policy from the implementation background,development process,participants and policy practice of green credit policy.Secondly,this paper analyzes the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and introducing the behavior equation of green credit policy impact and enterprise risk.And further studied the relationship between the credit policy,enterprise risk and the effectiveness of "dual pillar" regulation,and deeply explored the changes of enterprise risk after the introduction of green credit into the MPA assessment framework.Based on this,this paper uses micro data at the enterprise level and KMV model to build enterprise risk indicators,and empirically analyzes the impact of green credit policy on enterprise risk and its transmission mechanism from both external and internal aspects.The research finds that:(1)The impact of green credit policy will increase the risk level of high pollution enterprises and reduce the risk level of low pollution enterprises.When green credit is included in the MPA assessment framework,the impact of the impact on enterprise risk will be amplified,and the effectiveness of the policy will be enhanced.(2)From the analysis of external transmission mechanism,it can be found that the green credit policy will increase the financing constraints of highly polluting enterprises,increase the external financing costs and improve the external market competition of enterprises,thus increasing the risk level of highly polluting enterprises.This impact has heterogeneity problems in terms of enterprise nature,asset scale,whether there is environmental investment,whether there is environmental investment,etc.(3)From the analysis of internal transmission mechanism,it can be found that green credit policy will increase the agency cost,green information disclosure and enterprise innovation investment of highly polluting enterprises,thus increasing the risk level of highly polluting enterprises.This impact has heterogeneity problems in enterprise nature,asset scale,whether there is environmental investment,whether there is environmental investment.Thirdly,this paper uses text mining method to build green credit policy indicators based on text information,and analyzes the impact of green credit policy indicators on enterprise risk based on provincial panel data,and further analyzes the spatial spillover effect and industry regulation effect between the two.The research finds that:(1)Green credit policy will reduce the risk of low pollution enterprises and increase the risk of high pollution enterprises and thermal power industry enterprises.(2)The implementation of green credit policies in this region will improve the risk level of highly polluting enterprises and thermal power industry enterprises in this region,while the implementation of green credit policies in other regions will also improve the risk level of highly polluting enterprises and thermal power industry enterprises in this region(3)Under the policy background of environmental regulation,enterprises will drift green.The relationship between green credit policy and enterprise risk will be affected by the industrial green drift isomorphism.The more serious the industrial green drift isomorphism,the greater the impact of green credit policy on the risk of highly polluting enterprises.Finally,based on the above analysis results,it is concluded that China should strengthen the top-level construction of the green credit policy system,further explore and implement relevant green subsidy and transformation incentive policies,so as to reduce the financing cost and financing availability of green credit,and ensure the sustainability of the effect of green credit policy:We should give full play to the incentive and constraint role of green credit policy on enterprises.The regulatory authorities should actively guide banks and other financial institutions to vigorously develop green credit,guide credit funds to flow to low pollution enterprise departments,and give full play to the credit incentive role of green credit policy on low pollution enterprises;We should attach importance to the spatial spillover effect and industry regulation effect of green credit policy on enterprise risk,consider the spatial spillover effect between regions,strengthen cooperation between regions,increase the exposure probability and punishment of green drift,and break the legal basis for enterprises to gain social recognition through green drift isomorphism. |
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