A Study On The Risk Assessment Of Credit Debt Default In State-Owned Enterprises

With the continuous development of China’s social economy,the bond market is also constantly developing and growing.Accompanied by this is the increasing risk of default on Chinese credit bonds.As there are unwritten strict payment rules in China,that is,trust companies are required to make rigid payment for bonds,and local governments are responsible for state-owned enterprises,as of 2014,there has been no material breach of contract in China’s bond market.However,with the focus of China’s economic policy shifting towards "de production capacity" and "deleveraging",the number of bond defaults has gradually increased and the scale has continued to expand since the default of the "11 Super Japanese Bond" in 2014.Under the influence of external factors such as the COVID-19,economic downturn and tighter financing environment,the number of default of local state-owned enterprises began to rise sharply in 2020.However,under the influence of the "halo of state-owned enterprises",investors’ expectations of the default risk of state-owned enterprises are obviously insufficient,which makes this wave of default of state-owned enterprises have a very bad impact on the market,that is,the overall market sentiment sentiment is low and investment enthusiasm is significantly reduced.In addition,due to the close relationship between state-owned enterprises and local governments,the credit default situations faced by state-owned enterprises are more complex compared to private enterprises.Therefore,the default risk of state-owned enterprise credit bonds should be given sufficient attention.In this context,this article summarizes and analyzes the economic environment,governance structure,financial situation,government behavior,and other influencing factors of the default risk of state-owned enterprise credit bonds,and organizes the formation framework of state-owned enterprise credit bond default.Based on this,expert evaluation method is used to select an evaluation index system,and then the weight of default risk of credit bonds of Yongmei Holdings,a typical case company,is determined by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Method,On this basis,a state-owned enterprise credit bond default risk evaluation system will be constructed,taking Yongmei Holdings as an example.By applying an evaluation system to evaluate the default risk of Yongmei Holdings’ credit bonds,it can be concluded that the financial condition and local government behavior of Yongmei Holdings have a significant impact on its credit bond default risk,while the corporate governance structure and economic environment have a relatively small impact on its credit bond default risk.In addition,based on the specific situation of the case company,this article deeply analyzes the risk situation at four levels: economic environment,governance structure,financial situation,and government behavior,and points out the problems and shortcomings of Yongmei Holdings in the issuance of credit bonds.Finally,this article proposes relevant suggestions for state-owned enterprise issuers:improving their own operational capabilities,arranging debt structures reasonably,improving internal control systems,implementing mixed ownership reform,and increasing board heterogeneity.It is hoped that through the construction of a risk assessment system for the default of state-owned enterprise credit bonds,in-depth research on the default of Yongmei Holding’s credit bonds will transform the default of state-owned enterprise credit bonds into a new driving force,thus accelerating the development of China’s bond market.