The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Carbon Emissions

Since the Industrial Revolution,a series of environmental issues such as extreme weather caused by massive fossil energy consumption have become increasingly prominent In the face of the environmental effects brought about by development,China’s environmental regulation policy system has undergone a gradual process of improvement from zero to one,from the environmental policy of "prevention first,prevention combined" in the early stages of reform and opening up in the 1980 s to the "protection in development,protection in development" in the 21 st century,and then to the "upholding ecological priority" since the 18 th National Congress In order to meet the requirements and challenges brought by different development stages,China’s environmental regulation policy system has also undergone many major strategic transformations In recent years,whether it is a market-based environmental regulation tool represented by carbon emissions trading policies or a command based environmental regulation tool,environmental regulation,as an important economic policy to coordinate pollution emissions and economic development,its uncertainty can also have an impact on bothThe Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2021 clearly pointed out that China is at a new stage of development,and the tremendous changes in the external environment have brought many new issues that need to be recognized and resolved again The rich connotation of "grasping the new development stage,implementing the new development concept,and constructing a new development pattern" puts forward higher requirements for economic development and environmental protection The strength and difficulty of the government in coordinating economic development and pollution emissions through economic policies have continuously increased,and the corresponding economic policy uncertainty(EPU)has also increased。Therefore,exploring the impact and ways of EPU on pollution emissions has profound policy value and significant practical significanceCarbon emissions are an important category of pollution emissions The research on carbon trade and carbon transfer,which is more in line with the deepening global division of labor,has emerged as the times require。Clarifying the responsibility for carbon control from a research perspective can help economies explore more accurate carbon control strategies In the process of continuous development of global value chains(GVCs),the international division of labor system is constantly reshaped with the help of international trade。Theories represented by the Pollution Paradise Hypothesis reflect the reallocation of environmental factors among economies worldwide,and the resulting spatial transfer of environmental costs is particularly significant for developing countries such as China that participate deeply in GVCs The emergence of the "separation of production and consumption" phenomenon makes consumer responsibility invisible in the direct statistics of carbon emissions。Trade implied carbon allocates carbon dioxide retroactively along the global value chain,and calculates the carbon emissions actually generated and derived from a country’s production and consumption activities by reducing the implied carbon emissions from the value chain transferred by trade,providing an empirical fulcrum for the subsequent discussion of "common but differentiated responsibilities" in carbon reduction and emission reduction plansThe research on EPU in the traditional literature focuses on the economic level。In recent years,the research on environmental impact has been increasing,but the data and topics are relatively isolated,and it is difficult to integrate the conclusions drawn from different indicator measurement methods and data sources into a unified research system Firstly,this paper discusses the environmental impact of economic policy uncertainty from a trade perspective,constructs a theoretical framework for the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade implied carbon emissions and regional carbon emissions,and incorporates the environmental impact of the two carbon emissions into a more unified framework Secondly,this paper makes up the index fault of economic policy uncertainty at prefecture and county level By using the official tenure staggered algorithm,this paper complements the measurement indicators of economic policy uncertainty at the prefecture and county levels,and makes a comparative study of the feasibility and effectiveness of the official tenure staggered algorithm using the case of a county level city Thirdly,this article has combed and integrated relevant data and research methods on carbon emissions,forming a cross regional,intra regional,macro micro carbon emissions data system and a carbon emissions analysis framework of benchmark regression,heterogeneity,long-term and short-term impacts,and mechanism testing Using the literature approach,this paper first uses the Multi Regional Input Output(MRIO)method to deconstruct carbon emissions into two indicators: net export trade implied carbon and intra regional carbon emissions,and then calculates the implied carbon emissions through trade transfer from the perspective of commodity flows Using the latest data,this paper empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade implied carbon from the national and municipal levels;This paper also empirically examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on implied carbon emissions in the short and long term using an asymmetric conduction effect model。Based on factors such as location,income,economic development level,and industry,this paper conducts a heterogeneity analysis,and constructs a mediation effect model to analyze the mechanism of EPU’s impact on implied carbon emissions from commodity production side trade through economic and policy effectsIn order to understand the mechanism of EPU’s influence on carbon emissions in more detail,this paper transforms the research perspective from the multi-regional commodity production side to the singleregional commodity consumption side with richer data。Using the single-regional panel data at the national,provincial,prefecture-level,county-level,and enterprise-level,the paper examines the heterogeneity of EPU’s influence on regional carbon emissions at different levels Based on the mediation mechanism on the commodity production side,the economic and policy effects are subdivided into four channels: investment,trade,technological development,and policy supervision。A mediation effect model of EPU on regional carbon emissions is constructed The main conclusions are as follows:(1)This paper focuses on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on two carbon emission indicators:implied carbon in net export trade and intra regional carbon emissions Among them,the implied carbon emissions from net export trade reflect the environmental costs paid by a country in global export trade,and the intraregional carbon emissions reflect the environmental effects of changes in domestic industrial structure and international division of labor beyond pollution transfer During the observation period,the level of economic policy uncertainty in all economies increased as a whole,and the level of economic policy uncertainty in developing economies was generally higher than that in developed economies In the overall trend of carbon emissions,the carbon emissions of developed economies have not increased,but have decreased。The total carbon emissions of most developing economies are still rising year by year against the backdrop of deepening global division of labor。The trend of scissors difference in total carbon emissions presents a widening gap in environmental benefits between developed and developing countries,and also reflects the pollution transfer and technology gap behind this phenomenon After subdividing into the concept of trade implied carbon,this article finds that the total amount of implied carbon in net export trade continues to rise,indicating that carbon industry transfer is highly likely to lead to global pollution diffusion The implied carbon in net export trade also exhibits a scissors gap trend similar to the total carbon emissions between developing and developed economies,indicating that developing economies bear more environmental costs in world trade and assume more responsibility for carbon reduction and emission reduction under the current carbon emission calculation method based on commodity flows。(2)There is a significant "inverted U-shaped" relationship between economic policy uncertainty and economic carbon emissions,which means that as the degree of economic policy uncertainty increases,carbon emissions first increase and then decrease When the level of economic policy uncertainty is at a low level,the increase in carbon emissions caused by active economic activities exceeds the reduction in carbon emissions caused by increased government environmental supervision and the improvement of enterprise technological innovation At a high level of economic policy uncertainty,the inhibition caused by the contraction of economic activities has been reversed,and finally the carbon emissions have been reduced As a part of carbon emissions,there is also a significant "inverted U-shaped" relationship between implied carbon in net export trade and economic policy uncertainty However,unlike intra-regional carbon emissions,in the implied carbon emissions of net export trade,based on the heterogeneity of economies,economic policy uncertainty has a more severe impact on economies with larger trade scale,higher carbon emission density and higher economic level(3)The impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions has obvious heterogeneity due to different levels of economic development In general,the carbon effect intensity of economic policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with the level of economic development。Based on the heterogeneity of economies,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions of economies with low development level and high carbon emission intensity is more severe Based on urban heterogeneity,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions is more significant in administrative divisions with lower levels of population and income From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the change of economic policy uncertainty has no significant effect on the western region,but has a significant effect on the central and eastern regions The empirical test also proves that,from the perspective of the regulatory effect of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emission scale factors,economic policy uncertainty can weaken the increase in carbon emissions brought about by economic scale expansion(4)The uncertainty of economic policy has an asymmetric impact on carbon emissions in the short term and a symmetric impact in the long term。In the short term,the increase in economic policy uncertainty has a significant impact on carbon emissions,while the decrease in economic policy uncertainty has an unstable impact on carbon emissions In the long run,there is a negative correlation between the two,and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty can promote carbon emissions(5)The influence channel of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions can be divided into economic effect and policy effect As for economic effects,this paper believes that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions can be divided into three channels: investment behavior,trade behavior,and scientific and technological innovation behavior;The policy effect of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions is mainly reflected through the strength of government environmental regulations Specifically,the rising uncertainty of economic policy will eventually lead to the reduction of carbon emissions by restraining the scale of economic activities represented by investment and trade;Accordingly,the decline in economic policy uncertainty leads to an increase in carbon emissions by accelerating economic growth The increase in economic policy uncertainty leads to an increase in carbon emissions by hindering technological innovation by enterprises and loosening government environmental regulations。The decrease in economic policy uncertainty leads to a decrease in carbon emissions by promoting innovation and tightening environmental concerns From the above transmission channels,it can be seen that the prudent attitude of the government in regulating economic policies,and the improvement and perfection of the market information disclosure system can effectively control the level of uncertainty in economic policies,thereby mitigating the increase in carbon emissions caused by the increase in economic policy uncertainty in carbon reduction and emission reduction efforts At the same time,when comprehensively considering economic policies,carbon reduction and emission reduction,the government should also combine the regional heterogeneity of the carbon effect of economic policy uncertainty,give full play to regional comparative advantages,and boost the development of emerging industriesThe possible innovations of this article include:(1)Extending the environmental impact of economic policy uncertainty to the field of trade。Based on the reality of deepening international division of labor and international trade,this article constructs a theoretical framework for the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions in closed economies and open trade,and provides evidence support from different levels of empirical testing(2)Deconstruct carbon emissions into implied carbon in net export trade and regional carbon emissions,and conduct empirical research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on these two types of carbon emissions(3)This article distinguishes the different impacts of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions in economies at different levels,and conducts empirical tests at multiple levels,including the transnational panel and domestic provinces,cities,counties,and enterprises。It organically combines general conclusions based on international data with targeted conclusions based on a single economy(4)Compared to other literature,this article expands important variables such as economic policy uncertainty and two types of carbon emissions in terms of time and space at the data level,providing updated and more comprehensive empirical basis and evidence for subsequent empirical research(5)The official tenure staggered method and text staggered method were used to measure economic policy uncertainty,and a comparison was made with a case study。The integration of economic policy uncertainty measurement indicators from the national level to the corporate level was achieved for the first time。...