| The watershed ecosystem is a compound ecosystem composed of a biological community and inorganic environment,which integrates nature,society and economy and has ecological integrity.It plays a pivotal role in exerting ecosystem service functions and developing social and economic production.With the gradual progress of ecological civilization construction,the concept of "lucidity and lush mountains are gold and silver mountains" has gradually gained popular support,and the river basin ecosystem service function has been restored and improved to a certain extent.However,there is still a gap between the river basin ecosystem service and the goal of building a beautiful China,and the research on the quality,value and stability of ecosystem service needs to be improved.The study of basin ecosystem service value quantifies ecosystem service function in the form of money,which is an effective way to explore and directly reflect the important value of the ecological environment,and provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of the evolution law of basin ecosystem service function,the formulation of ecological compensation policies and the construction of ecological security pattern system.It is of great significance to enhance residents’ awareness of ecosystem protection,promote the establishment of an ecological value accounting system,and promote the construction of ecological civilization and the transformation of green economic development in river basins.This paper takes the Tangbai River as the research object,establishes the theoretical framework for the study of the ecosystem service value of the basin,systematically evaluates the ecosystem service value of the Tangbai River,scientifically identifies the tradeoff and synergy between the ecosystem services of the Tangbai River and its driving factors,and reveals the ecosystem service value of the Tangbai River and its hydrologic-ecological impact mechanism.Then,the future ecological service value of Tangbai River is predicted under multiple scenarios.The main achievements include:(1)Theoretical framework of watershed ecosystem service value assessmentBased on MA theory,the characteristics,structure and functions of the watershed ecosystem are summarized,and the theoretical framework of watershed ecosystem service value assessment is established.Based on the theoretical framework of ecosystem service value evaluation,the evaluation index system of ecosystem service value of the Tangbai River basin was constructed.The frequency analysis method and expert scoring method were used to select and identify the four categories of supply,regulation,support and culture and 11sub-categories of functional calculation factors,and the evaluation calculation model of ecosystem service value of Tangbai River basin was constructed.It lays a theoretical foundation for assessing ecosystem service value and studying hydrological influence mechanism in the Tangbai River Basin.(2)Assessment and spatial-temporal change of ecosystem service value in Tangbai River BasinThrough the collection of relevant literature and data and field survey,the database of land use,hydroclimate,elevation,remote sensing and soil for the calculation of ecosystem service value in Tangbai River Basin during 2010-2020 was constructed.The InVEST model and value evaluation method were used to evaluate and calculate 11 types of ecological service functions in Tangbai River Basin from 2010 to 2020,and their spatial-temporal spatiotemporal changes were analyzed.The results showed that the ecosystem service value of the Tangbai River Basin showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020.Except for the cultural service value,the spatial-temporal spatiotemporal variation trend of service supply,regulation and support values was consistent with the ecosystem service value of Tangbai River Basin.(3)Synergistic relationship and driving factors of ecosystem service tradeoff in Tangbai River BasinAiming at the ecosystem service value of the Tangbai River Basin at different scales in2020,SPSS and Corrgram functions were used to calculate and analyze the tradeoffs and synergies among 11 ecosystem service functions at different scales in Tangbai River Basin.The Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model was used to analyze the driving factors.The results show that the water supply service has the strongest correlation with other services at the catchment scale,and has a strong correlation with the other eight indicators except for climate regulation and cultural inheritance.It is determined that "elevation,slope,precipitation,temperature,population and GDP" are the main driving factors of ecosystem service value in the Tangbai River Basin.(4)Response of ecosystem services and hydrological influence mechanism in Tangbai River BasinThis paper describes the concept of hydrological factors and ecological factors in Tangbai River Basin by reading relevant literature,uses the regression analysis method and set pair analysis method to screen hydrological factors and ecological factors,and uses a single variable method to analyze the response characteristics and mechanism of ecological factors and ecosystem service value to the change of hydrological factors.The results show that the ecosystem service value of the basin has a positive response to hydrological factors such as precipitation,which shows that the increase in precipitation increases the ecosystem service value.(5)Prediction of future multi-scenario ecosystem service value in Tangbai River BasinAccording to the driving factors and temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem service value in the Tangbai River Basin,a future multi-scenario ecosystem service value prediction model was constructed based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model coupled with land use scenario simulation.With 2020 as the simulation base year and 2010-2020 as the model validation period,three scenario models of "natural continuation","urban development" and "ecological protection" were set up to predict the ecosystem service value of land use evolution results under different development scenarios in 2030.The results show that the value of ecosystem services under the "natural continuation" scenario is more prominent than that under the "urban development" and "ecological protection" scenario,and ecosystem services play a greater value. |
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