| The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies will require increasing demand for critical byproduct metals because of their unique physical or chemical properties.However,the complex joint production relationship between host-byproduct metals makes the availability of byproduct metals more complex and uncertain.With the transformation of the economic growth mode and the adjustment of global mining cycle,many factors such as the de-capacity,recycling promotion for host metals are likely to threaten the supply of critical byproduct metals.The availability of critical byproduct metals may become a potential bottleneck for the development of clean energy technology and global energy transition.For this reason,how to scientifically analyze the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technology has become an urgent problem to be addressed.This study taking gallium as an example,aims to explore the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technology and mitigation policy.According to the progressive research logic of “data base-demand forecasting-constraints trend-mitigation policy”,four key questions have been studied,including “what is the characteristics and historical evolution trends of gallium flows and stocks”,“how about the impacts of clean energy technological development on the gallium demand”,“how to scientifically simulate the availability constraints of gallium for clean energy technologies”,and “how to mitigate the availability constraints of gallium for clean energy technologies”.Various methods such as material flow analysis,specific technology-based stock-driven models,system dynamics model,-based stock-driven models and scenario analysis are applied in this research.The main conclusions of this research are as follows:(1)The material flow processes of gallium have been mapped dynamically and the characteristics of gallium stocks and flows were revealed.In the mining and smelting process,primary gallium supply has been greatly influenced by the joint production between aluminum and gallium in recent years,and the prosperous development of aluminum industry in China brings abundant resources potentials to the primary gallium;In the production and manufacturing process,the global cumulatived gallium consumption shows an exponential growth trend,and the regional disparities in the gallium demand structure is obvious;In the end-use product stage,despite the gallium demand is still dominated by other electronic communication fields,the clean energy fields such as solar photovoltaics,wind power,and electric vehicles gradually show increasing demand for gallium;In the waste management stage,the geographical distribution of global cumulatived waste production of gallium has undergone structural changes.The waste gallium production was mainly concentrated in Japan,the United States and other developed countries before 2005,whereas China has become the leading region after 2019.However,the recycling of gallium resources has not been developed on a large scale.(2)The impacts of clean energy technology development on the gallium demand were explored based on the energy transition goals.With the implementation of energy transition,both of the demand scale and demand structure of gallium will undergo significant changes.The global gallium demand will reach 815-3109 tons/year by 2050,with an annual growth rate of 2%-6%.Under the policy goal of sustainable development,China will become the largest gallium consumer in the world.In addition to the sluggish growth of gallium demand in Japan,gallium demand in the US,EU and Ro W is also growing rapidly.The share of gallium demand for clean energy technology sector in China will exceed that for traditional applications starting from 2038 and reach 63% by 2050.The proportion of gallium demand for clean energy technologies in the US,EU and Ro W will reach about 80% by 2050.Therefore,promoting the implementation of the sustainable development goals will intensify the competition for gallium resources among the world’s major powers.(3)The constraint trends of gallium availability for the clean energy technologies were investigated under different energy transition goals.Under the baseline supply scenario,the current growth trend of global bauxite production will be maintained,and thus the gallium supply will always be in an elastic regime in the future,with less constraint risk of gallium availability.As a major supplier of global gallium resources,China’s net export of gallium will account for 92% of global gallium demand by 2050.Under the capacity adjustment scenario of host metals,the gallium supply potential globally will only reach 1516-2453 tons/year by 2050,which is difficult to meet the global gallium demand for sustainable development policy.Moreover,the gallium export in China will be reduced from 2030 to meet its domestic gallium demand market,and the net gallium export in China will only account for 20% of the global gallium demand by 2050.As a result,the US,EU,Japan and Ro W is likely to face gallium supply risk after 2030,highlighting the important role of the “China factor” played in global supply security of gallium.(4)The mitigation policies of gallium availability constraints for clean energy technology were systematically analyzed from the whole industry chain perspective.The policies including resource increment,resource recycling,resource saving and resource substitution are proposed to mitigate gallium availability constraints from both of supply and demand sides.Implementing a single mitigation policy could not fundamentally reverse the shortage situation of gallium supply for the achievement of global sustainable development goals.The gallium supply potential could increase by 40% globally in 2050 by combining resource increment and resource recycling policies,and the resource increment policy can obviously release the gallium supply potential in China,which is conducive to maintaining China’s strategic leading position in global gallium market.Under the combined influence of resource saving and resource substitution,the average annual growth rate of global gallium demand will decrease from 6% to 3.8% in the next 30 years,which could effectively alleviate the supply constraint of gallium,thus promoting the realization of global sustainable development goals.However,the mitigation effects of supplyside and demand-side policies are mutually "offset",thus a "package" mitigation policies should not be blindly adopted.The main contributions of this study are as follows:(1)Theoretical innovation: based on the characteristics of byproduct metals,this study has constructed a multi-systems framework of material flow analysis for critical byproduct metals,and the relationship between the development route of clean energy technology and the supply routes of gallium was clearly revealed,which helps to enrich and expand the theory of metal availability constraints.(2)Methodological innovation: using specifictechnology stock-driven model and scenario analysis method,this study has built a forecasting model of critical byproduct metal demand for clean energy technologies,which could explore the impacts of the changes of clean energy technologies and energy transition policy on the gallium demand with higher resolution,and fill the shortcomings of the traditional metal demand forecasting method only considering macroscopic influence factors.(3)Simulation platform innovation: Integrating multi-disciplinary methods from economical geology and economics,this study constructed a simulation model for the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies,which could dynamically and systematically capture constraint trends of gallium availability for the clean energy technologies,filling in the defect that previous studies cannot dynamically reflect the availability constraint trend of critical byproduct metals.(4)Policy implications innovation: in the context of energy transition and sustainable development goals,the availability constraint trends of gallium for clean energy tenology are analyzied based on the multi-scenarios.On this basis,the mitigation policies of availability constraints of gallium are explored from the perspective of whole industrial chain,and the effects of these policies are simulated.The proposed policy implications are more scientific,targeted and operable,which can provide a systematic decision-making basis for promoting global energy transition and achieving China’s ‘dual carbon’ goal. |
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