| Towards the goal of rural revitalisation,‘ecological liveability’has become a new requirement for the construction of the ecological environment in villages.This not only requires a guarantee of the habitability of the ecological environment in villages but also requires that support for village construction and development is provided.Xuzhou,in the Huanghuai Area in Eastern China,is suitable for agricultural production for the dense population as it has flat terrain and developed water systems.However,large ecological landscape resources are lacking in Xuzhou’s rural spaces;rather,its existing ecological landscapes are characterised by high quantity,small area and high fragmentation degree.The traditional urbanisation and agricultural production activities have disturbed the rural ecological landscapes,destroyed the rural ecological environment and restricted the sustainable development of villages in Xuzhou.This study focused on ecological landscape safety for villages in Xuzhou.To formulate hierarchical control strategies,rural ecological landscapes were given GI network attributes by the comprehensive use of basic principles and analytical methods in landscape ecology,ecological planning and systematics.An ecological landscape importance evaluation method was then built based on the robustness analysis of the GI network,providing a new approach for formulating control strategies for rural ecological landscapes in the Huanghuai area.First,an ecological landscape evolution monitoring database was constructed using remote-sensing data from Xuzhou in 2000,2010 and 2020.The overall evolutionary characteristics of the land-use patterns and dynamic transformation intensity in Xuzhou after 2000 were analysed.Second,the ecological landscape evolution,driving mechanisms and multi-scenario evolutionary tendencies in Xuzhou were analysed and predicted systematically by using the Logistic model and the CA-Markov model.A combined path of scenario simulation and network robustness analysis was proposed,which applied network robustness analysis to the GI network driven by multi-factor evolutions.The construction logic,construction scheme,basic principles and technical path of the multi-level GI network were elaborated and analysed thoroughly via the MSPA,MCR model and circuit theory.A multi-level GI network structure system was formed and the application boundaries of GI theory were extended.Finally,an ecological landscape importance evaluation method and early warning mechanism for villages in Xuzhou were established based on the robustness analysis of the GI network.Some major conclusions and innovation points were as follows:(1)Based on traditional GI theory,this multi-level GI network structural system was built by combining multi-level attributes of ecological landscapes.This multi-level GI network structure described the ecological landscape in Xuzhou at different levels.According to the land-use classification in 2020,a two-level GI network of Xuzhou was formed;this was composed of 67 important ecological origins,2234 footstone patches and 6054 connection units.In this GI network,81.12%of the total length of LCP,86.28%of the potential corridor area and 77.71%of the total footstone patch areas were located in rural spaces in Xuzhou.This highlighted the importance of the rural ecological landscape in Xuzhou in maintaining the connectivity of the regional GI network.(2)A robustness analytical method for the GI network was established based on quantitative scenario simulation technology.The combination of quantitative scenario simulation technology and network robustness analysis provided support for determining the failure timing sequence of the GI network.Hence,network robustness analysis was successfully applied to the GI network.In this study,the robustness of the GI network for Zone A in the west and Zone B in the east of Xuzhou was analysed under three simulated scenarios of‘agricultural development’,‘trend development’and‘rapid urbanisation’.In these three scenarios,the network failure progress for Zone A was 33.45%,39.25%and 50.51%,respectively and for Zone B was 45.36%,51.43%and 60.20%,respectively.Therefore,the scenario of‘agricultural development’destroyed the connectivity of the GI network more significantly.(3)An ecological landscape importance evaluation method based on the robustness analysis of the GI network was built.The zoning function for network robustness analysis was obtained through the optimal centrality protection scenario,simulated network failure scenario and setting of a critical failure value.The ecological landscape was divided into zones according to the connectivity importance of the theoretical dimension and the failure risk of the practical dimension.Based on this zoning,the importance of the ecological landscapes was evaluated.In the scenario of‘trend development’,there were relatively dense distributions of high-level nodes in the centre and on the side close to the city in the GI network of Zone A as well as in the rural spaces and on both sides of the rivers in the GI network of Zone B.In the scenario of‘rapid urbanisation’,the density of high-level nodes surrounding the urban areas increased.In the scenario of‘agricultural development’,the density of high-level nodes in the transition spaces and near rivers increased.Thus,the ecological landscape importance evaluation results showed significant dynamics and differences among the different scenarios.(4)A safety early warning mechanism,which was dynamically coordinated with ecological landscape importance evaluation,was built.In contrast to other importance evaluation systems that have been based on status analysis,this study established a new ecological landscape importance evaluation method by combining future potential risk prediction.This method could accurately reflect dynamic changes in the ecological landscape:it shifted from theoretical analysis to practical applications during dynamic coordination between the evaluation of early warning triggering,control of feedback evaluation and control of evaluation verification,thereby building a safety early warning mechanism.The practice paths for importance evaluation results in combination with the early warning mechanism in the formulation of multi-level ecological landscape control strategies were discussed based on Xuzhuang Town,Liuji Town,Yizhuang Town and Daxu Town.In this study,a rural ecological landscape importance evaluation method combining GI theory,scenario simulation and network robustness analysis was built based on rural ecological landscape safety in Xuzhou.The proposed method has important theoretical innovation significance to the construction of multi-level GI networks,robustness analysis of GI networks and ecological landscape importance evaluation.Furthermore,the research conclusions of this study provide an important reference for practices that promote the construction of ecological liveable villages in the Huanghuai Area,thereby progressing rural revitalisation and contributing to the building of a moderately prosperous society.This study has 97 figures,38 tables and 232 references. |
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