| In order to actively and steadily carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.China has issued the "Opinions of the Central Committee of CPC Central Committee and State Council on the Complete and Accurate Implementation of the New Development Concept for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Work" and the "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030",as well as other programmatic documents and action plans for carbon peaking in various key areas and industries,initially building up a "1+N" policy system and setting new guidelines for the highquality development of the energy industry.As the largest carbon emitter,the low-carbon transition of the power sector is particularly important for carbon reduction in the energy sector.In March 2021,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to build a new power system,pointing outthe way forward for the low-carbon development of the power industry.However,considering the restructuring process of China’s power generation and the demand for renewable energy consumption,thermal power will remain as an important supporting power source for some time to come,playing the role of a base support.In addition,with the accelerated construction of the electricity market and the national carbon market,there will be an objective need for thermal power enterprises to participate in both the electricity and carbon markets,and the carbon emissions generated in the process of power generation will also have an impact on the economic efficiency of the enterprises.Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,as a large-scale carbon reduction technology,is capable of separating CO2 from industrial processes,energy use or the atmosphere,and either utilizing it directly or injecting it into the ground for sequestration,so as to realize permanent CO2 emission reductions.The application of CCUS technology not only reduces the level of carbon emissions of thermal power enterprises,but also helps them to tap the value of carbon recycling and unleash the space for their strategy space to participate in the dual market of electricity and carbon.In recent years,the number of CCUS projects has gradually increased globally,and countries such as the United States,Canada,Australia and Japan are accelerating the commercialization of CCUS projects.By 2022,there will be a total of 196 CCUS commercial facilities around the world,with a total capture capacity of more than 240 million tonnes of CO2 per year.However,the high cost of CCUS technology and the low price of carbon trading impede its application.On this basis,this thesis conducts an in-depth study on the design and selection of business models for thermal power enterprises considering CCUS,with a view to providing a model and methodological reference for the commercial application of CCUS technology and the low carbon transition of thermal power enterprises.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The value network structure model of thermal power enterprises considering CCUS under the dual market of electricity and carbon is constructed,and the business models of thermal power enterprises applying CCUS are classified into independent operating model,cooperative operating model and outsourcing operating model.On the basis of analyzing the components of the business model of thermal power enterprises under electricity-carbon market and the impact of CCUS technology application on the business model of thermal power enterprises,this part combs out the value chain of the electricity and carbon business of thermal power enterprises under the electricity-carbon market and builds up a value network model of thermal power enterprises considering CCUS,and disassembles the business model of thermal power enterprises considering CCUS at the three levels of network nodes,value transfer and value elements.On this basis,the business models of thermal power enterprises considering CCUS are further classified into three categories according to the different value contributions and distribution mechanisms of each node enterprise in the value network,which lays the foundation for the subsequent research.(2)A distribution robust operation optimization model for thermal power enterprises considering CCUS is constructed,which provides a scientific method for maximally realizing the overall benefits of the business model.Firstly,this thesis constructs a two-stage objective function including the day-ahead scheduling phase and real-time adjustment phase and sets constraints by combining the offer and trading rules of thermal power enterprises participating in the dual electricity and carbon market.At the same time,this thesis introduces the Wasserstein distance to portray the real-time change of the trading space when thermal power enterprises participate in the electricity market,and constructs a distribution robust optimization model.Finally,this thesis carries out empirical analyses to measure the optimal operational benefits of different business models.The results show that under the current environment,the cooperative operating model has the highest operational efficiency,followed by the outsourcing operating model.(3)A thermal power enterprise operation benefit measurement model based on bargaining game is constructed,which provides methodological support for measuring the actual operation benefit share of thermal power enterprises under different business models.Firstly,this thesis comprehensively applies Fuzzy-Delphi.DEMATEL-ANP and Vague fuzzy set to calculate the benefit contribution factor of thermal power enterprises under different business models.Secondly,a thermal power enterprise operation benefit measurement model based on bargaining game is constructed,and the contribution factor is substituted into the model to get the thermal power enterprise operation benefit by solving the Nash product.Finally,this thesis carries out an empirical analysis,and the results show that in the operation phase,thermal power enterprises can obtain the highest operational benefits under the cooperative operating model.In addition,the proportion of actual operational benefits of thermal power enterprises in the cooperative operating model is slightly higher than that in the outsourcing operating model.(4)A business model selection model for thermal power enterprises considering the investment cost of CCUS was constructed,which provides a decision basis for the selection of business models for thermal power enterprises under electricity-carbon market.Firstly,the net present value and total investment value were selected as the evaluation indexes,and the results of operational benefit measurement and the upfront investment cost of CCUS technology were substituted to obtain the net present value and total investment value of each business model.Secondly,this thesis further sets up the selection rules,constructs the business model selection model of thermal power enterprises considering CCUS and carries out the empirical analysis.The results show that under the existing market environment and policy framework,all three business models are economically feasible,but only the cooperative operating model satisfies the condition of immediate investment.Meanwhile,this thesis observes the economic value of each business model under different levels of carbon price,technology learning rate and policy subsidy.In the process of carbon price change,the cooperative operation model always meets the immediate investment condition,and the critical carbon price for immediate investment of the independent model and the outsourcing operation model are about CNY438 per ton and CNY566 per ton,respectively.When the carbon price is lower than CNY150 per ton,the outsourcing model is more suitable for investment than the independent operating model,instead,independent operating model would be more suitable for investment.When the technology learning rate reaches 10%,the cooperative operation model is no longer suitable for immediate investment.In addition,the intensity of policy subsidies does not affect the results,and the cooperative mode is still the best choice for thermal power enterprises to introduce CCUS technology at this stage.To sum up,this thesis constructs a set of business model selection methodology for thermal power enterprises considering CCUS through the study of four parts:business model construction and analysis,operation optimization,benefit calculation,and model selection,which provides a scientific reference for the application of CCUS technology by thermal power enterprises to achieve the maximization of economic and environmental benefits under electricity-carbon market.In the near future,with the increase of technical reserves and the introduction of relevant standards.CCUS technology will be further promoted and applied in China,and this study can also provide reference for the construction and selection of business models for the application of CCUS technology by relevant energy enterprises,and provide an effective method for their low-carbon development,which will ultimately help China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal to be achieved smoothly. |
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