Evaluation And Influencing Factors Of Ecotourism Value Based On Discrete Choice Experiment

With the public’s increasing concern for the ecological environment and the gradual improvement of environmental awareness,ecotourism is becoming more and more popular,and the demand for tourism is increasing year by year.However,ecotourism faces the dual pressure of protecting the ecological environment and meeting the demand for entertainment.How can ecological resources be continuously available in the development of ecotourism? This is an urgent problem to be solved in the sustainable development of ecotourism.To achieve the sustainable use of ecotourism resources,the accurate and comprehensive quantitative evaluation of ecotourism value is an important topic in ecotourism research.In order to resolve the conflicting trade-offs between tourism demand and ecological conservation,managers need more information to understand the preferences of tourists for ecological protection and tourism needs.In view of this,based on the discrete choice experiment(DCE)method,this study systematically studies the ecotourism value evaluation in Zhalong National Nature Reserve in northeast China,using the research ideas from theoretical analysis to empirical analysis to improve the scientificity and effectiveness of value evaluation.In terms of theoretical analysis,the experimental design of DCE is improved,and the ecotourism value and the trade-offs between them are evaluated more comprehensively by combining the two kinds of attributes of ecology and entertainment,and the evaluation model of ecotourism value based on DCE is constructed.In the aspect of empirical analysis,in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of evaluation results,in addition to consider individual socioeconomic characteristics,from the perspective of latent variables,this study explores the influence mechanism of subjective psychological factors such as ecotourism cognitive level,environmental attitude and tourist satisfaction on the willingness to pay and preference heterogeneity for ecotourism improvement,and the causal mechanism among the influencing factors is further explored.Based on this,the welfare analysis of ecotourism improvement plan and the estimation of total value of improving ecotourism are carried out to provide scientific and feasible management enlightenment and policy suggestions for the sustainable development of ecotourism.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the random utility theory,the discrete choice modelling of ecotourism value evaluation is constructed to evaluate the improvement value of ecotourism,explore the trade-offs and preferences of tourists among potentially conflicting management priorities and integrate socioeconomic characteristics into the model to explore tourists’ preference heterogeneity for improving ecotourism.The results show that tourists tend to improve the status quo of ecotourism and are willing to pay for it.The willingness to pay for management attributes from high to low are biodiversity,environmental education facilities and expected number of visitors.Gender,age,income and employment status are all factors that influence this preference,and residential situation also affects the utility of ecotourism improvement attributes.By selecting appropriate discrete choice modelling,the decision-making motivation of tourists when choosing ecotourism improvement plan is explored,the explanatory strength and validity of the model are compared,and the selection probability is predicted.(2)This study further explores the demand and preference characteristics of tourists for ecotourism improvement,clarifies the influence of subjective psychological driving factors on tourists’ payment and choice behavior.Respectively based on the ecotourism cognitive level,general attitude,specific-behavior attitude and multidimensional tourist satisfaction,these latent variables are incorporated as explanatory variables and demographic segmentation criteria into discrete choice modelling,and a comprehensive choice analysis model including all influencing factors is constructed to deeply analyze tourists’ preference heterogeneity for ecotourism improvement and its influencing mechanism.The results show that with the increase of the inclusion factors,not only the categories of endogeneity groups and the preference heterogeneity within and between groups are increased,but also the model fit,the validity of the estimation results,and the ability to predict and explain individual choice behavior are greatly improved.The results also show that tourists’ ecotourism cognitive level,environmental attitude and tourist satisfaction significantly influence their willingness to pay and preference for improving ecotourism.In addition,the results of the comprehensive choice analysis model based on latent class show that the respondents can be divided into four latent segments: balanced-improved type,price-sensitive type,eco-friendly type and crowd-aversion type,and the selection tendency,socioeconomic characteristics portrait,psychological characteristics portrait and marginal willingness to pay of the members of each segment are obtained.(3)Based on the status quo scheme,this study establishes three management scenarios for welfare analysis from the perspective of two trade-off preference attributes.The compensation surplus value of single,moderate and absolute management scenarios is 5.14 RMB,10.27 RMB and15.41 RMB,respectively.From the perspective of ecotourism management,the results convey a very clear message that improving biodiversity and environmental education facilities is a very valuable strategy for sustainable ecotourism development.Under the optimal absolute management strategy,the total value of improving ecotourism in Zhalong National Nature Reserve is 6.9345 million RMB per year,accounting for approximately 30% of the total tourism revenue in the same year.It can be seen that the benefits of improving ecotourism are very significant,and sustainable ecotourism management is crucial to the ecological protection and development of nature reserves and national parks and other ecotourism destinations.(4)This study constructs a structural equation model to further investigate the causal mechanism and the influence mechanism among the influencing factors.The results support the hypotheses that there are significant relationships among the influencing factors,indicating that the ecotourism cognitive level has a positive impact on environmental attitude and tourist satisfaction.The results also show that the estimation results of the structural equation model partially verify the estimation results of the discrete choice experiment,but there are more complex influencing mechanisms for the impact of ecotourism cognition level,general attitude and behavioral-specific attitude on WTP.Compared to two kinds of research methods,structural equation model can only carry on the exploration of the relationship among latent variables,but discrete choice experiment can do value evaluation,welfare analysis and trade-offs among attributes,and can further explore and excavate the internal mechanism affecting behavioral intention.The research results can provide more specific and rich information for the formulation of ecotourism management policies.This study proposes a conceptual framework,constructs the ecotourism value evaluation model based on DCE,and provides new ideas for the research on ecotourism value evaluation.This study not only enriches the ecotourism study areas on the research of the non-market value evaluation and the preference motivation,but also on the basis of incorporating the subjective psychological factors,such as the ecotourism cognitive level,environmental attitude and tourist satisfaction,provides new research perspective for ecotourism study,provides more effective policy support for the sustainable development and management of ecotourism and scientific solutions for reasonably allocating all kinds of competitive demands and social resources,provides new information for the management and sustainable development of ecotourism destinations such as nature reserves and national parks in China,and brings new reference for the realization of ecological product value and the future development of ecotourism..This study is devoted to enriching and perfecting the theoretical framework and practical application of ecotourism value evaluation and making contributions to improving the effectiveness and scientificity of ecotourism value evaluation.